The fourth and final major of the season is upon us with Royal Birkdale in northwest England hosting the 154th Open Championship. Royal Birkdale first hosted the Open Championship in 1954 with Peter Thomson (twice), Arnold Palmer, Lee Trevino, Johnny Miller, Tom Watson, Padraig Harrington and Jordan Spieth listed amongst the winners. All the greats have won the Open Championship from Old Tom Morris and Willie Park Sr through greats like Bobby Jones, Walter Hagen, Gary Player, Palmer, Watson, Jack Nicklaus and Seve Ballesteros all the way to Tiger Woods, Ernie Els, Rory McIlroy and Scottie Scheffler.
Key Stats/Skill Set Required
- Scrambling
- Strokes Gained: Around The Green
- Putting Average
- Strokes Gained: Putting
- GIR
- Strokes Gained: Approach
Royal Birkdale is a stunning links course that regularly rates among the best courses in the world and has hosted an Open Championship in every decade since the 1950s. A testing par 70 that is regarded as a true examination, its primary test like most links courses is the wind as seen by Padraig Harrington winning with +3 in 2008 and Jordan Spieth winning with -12 nine years later. Finding greens, scrambling well and landing putts are what wins Open Championships with recent form, recent major form, tournament pedigree and experience the key to finding a winner.
Key Correlation Tournaments
- Alfred Dunhill Links
- Scottish Open
Matthew Fitzpatrick is an elite player and is going as well as anyone heading into this. The No.3 in the Data Golf world rankings, he has four wins since November last year: the DP World Tour Championship, the Valspar, the RBC Heritage and the Zurich Classic. His form has hardly dropped away in the majors with the former US Open champion finishing Top 22 in all three majors this year. He finished fourth here last year and ticks every major profile box. He leads the Tour in Strokes Gained: Approach and Strokes Gained: Around The Green while he ranks 4th in GIR. Two Top 4 finishes the last two years in the Alfred Dunhill Links shows his love of links golf. Looks a tremendous top play.
2021 Open Championship winner Collin Morikawa tends to profile well in majors as his game typically stands up on the biggest stage but the biggest push for him here is his last start third at the Travelers that suggests he has overcome a back problem that has been causing him issues. He has returned to form this year with a win at Pebble Beach, six Top 10s in his last 10 starts and two major Top 20s. He ranks 2nd in Strokes Gained: Approach, 7th in GIR and 15th in Putting Average. He is a real runner this week.
Wyndham Clark now has two US Opens to his name after his stunning win at Shinnecock Hills in June and can put himself firmly in play for the best player of 2026 with a win here. He profiles beautifully here, ticking boxes as a top Data Golf player, a win in 2026, a recent Top 10, an Open Top 10 and a recent major Top 20. He leads the Tour in Putting Average while he ranks 13th in Strokes Gained: Around The Green.
We are starting to see the best of Patrick Reed since he made the call to ditch LIV, winning twice in the Middle East before Top 12 finishes in The Masters and PGA Championship. He is a major winner and has three Open Top 20s so can perform on links courses. His numbers on the DP World Tour hold up too, ranking 2nd in Strokes Gained: Approach, 9th in GIR, 6th in Scrambling and 8th in Strokes Gained: Around The Green. Don’t undersell Reed.
The most underrated player on the board this week is Frenchman Victor Perez, who can make his presence known. This is his fifth Open and he has twice finished Top 41. He ranks 5th in GIR and 7th in Scrambling. Comes off a good Scottish Open Top 10. Has a very likable look heading into this week.
Min Woo Lee does not have a tremendous Open Championship record but in a weak field of Australians he is a standout play. He was second in Scotland last week while his putting stats suggest he will play well at Birkdale.
Keita Nakajima ranks 2nd on the DP World Tour in Scrambling and 3rd on the PGA Tour in GIR. Comes off a third in the Scottish Open so playing quality golf. Very good hope at a very big price.