NRL Refs Stats That Matter | Round 19

Wyatt Raymond

• Wests Tigers are 4-5 with a 5-4 cover record
• New Zealand are 5-3 with a 5-3 cover record
• Home dogs of 8 or more cover at 71%
• The over is 6-2 in New Zealand games
• The over hits at 64% when there is an interstate favourite

Wyatt Raymond has proven a very good over referee when there is a big interstate favourite while the Warriors have gone over on his whistle.

Ref Lean: Over 45.5 @ $1.90

Todd Smith

• Dolphins are 9-3 with a 10-2 cover record
• The Sharks are 11-5 with an 8-8 cover record
• The over is 8-4 in Dolphins games
• The over hits at 55% in all Smith games

Todd Smith is a big over official and the Dolphins go over on his watch so that is the first port of call while the Dolphins have a remarkable record on his whistle and need to be tried.

Ref Lean: Dolphins -4.5 @ $1.90 and Over 49.5 @ $1.90

Gerard Sutton

• The Bulldogs are 5-9 with a 7-7 cover record
• The Raiders are 7-10 with a 5-12 cover record
• Favourites of 4 or more cover at 55%
• The under is 9-1 in Sutton’s last 10 games

Both the Bulldogs and Raiders are big under teams this season while Gerard Sutton has been on an unders tear over the middle part of 2026.

Ref Lean: Under 46.5 @ $1.73

Adam Gee

• The Roosters are 16-9 with an 11-14 cover record
• The Eels are 3-8 with a 2-9 cover record
• The under is 12-4 in 2026
• The under hits at 56% when there is a favourite of 4 or more

There is a temptation to be with the Roosters here given how poor the Eels go under Gee but the most reliable play is to stick with the unders given Gee’s recent record of low-scoring games.

Ref Lean: Under 48.5 @ $1.90

Grant Atkins

• Souths are 7-13 with a 7-13 cover record
• Newcastle are 7-8 with an 8-7 cover record
• Teams off a loss cover at 54%
• The under is 11-4 in Newcastle games

Grant Atkins is one of the most experienced officials on the books at the moment but provides no angles in this game that is very close in betting.

Ref Lean: No Lean

Peter Gough

• Manly are 6-7 with an 8-5 cover record
• North Qld are 9-6 with an 8-7 cover record
• The over is 11-4 in North Qld games
• The under has hit in 12 straight Gough games

The only angle to play here is to continue betting unders in Peter Gough games, an angle that has hit in 12 straight matches dating back to Round 2.

Ref Lean: Under 48.5 @ $1.90

Jarrod Cole

• This is Melbourne’s first game under Cole
• Gold Coast are 1-1 with a 1-1 cover record
• The under is 12-2 in Cole’s 14 games
• The under is 5-0 when a team is favoured by 8 or more points

We are just early into the career of Jarrod Cole but he has proven an exceptional unders proposition to date, particularly when a team is heavily favoured.

Ref Lean: Under 48.5 @ $1.90