NRL Tips & Preview | Round 19

The Tigers are now firmly in the death spiral as another season without finals football is all but certain after a demoralising loss to the St George Illawarra Dragons, blowing a lead to hand the Red V just their second win of the season. It was their third straight defeat and their seventh loss in nine matches to send the Tigers tumbling to 12th. It is their attack that has gone south, scoring 18 or fewer in six of their last nine. The real concern for the Tigers is the loss of Api Koroisau. The Tigers are 2-9 when he is out but most tellingly they concede an average of 37ppg when he is not playing, 10ppg worse. The Warriors are the real deal this year and have really not stumbled a lot. They have won nine of 10 against the Tigers with wins in their last four Sydney meetings. The Warriors have covered 30 of 48 in Australia and 24 of 40 off a loss. New Zealand are set to win this and win big. Charnze Nicoll-Klokstaad has had a good year after being shifted to the three-quarter line with seven tries in four games playing wing and centre. Adam Pompey has three tries in his last six games against the Tigers. Erin Clark has nearly doubled his career try tally this season with four in 15 games.

Tips

Best: New Zealand -7.5 ($1.83)
Next: New Zealand 41+ Points ($6.60)
Tryscorer: Charnze Nicoll-Klokstaad ($7.50 First, $1.65 Anytime)
SGM: Charnze Nicoll-Klokstaad Try/Adam Pompey Try/Erin Clark Try ($28.25)

Two Top 6 teams square off to kick off Saturday in one of the most important and most compelling matches of the weekend. The Dolphins had their eight-game win streak ended in heartbreaking style last weekend by a Dylan Brown field goal while the Sharks form continues to be patchy. There is a big watch on the large Dolphins contingent backing up from Origin but assuming the majority play, they look an excellent bet. The Sharks just rarely show up against elite opposition and the Dolphins are elite. Cronulla are 15-23 against the spread when playing a Top 6 team. The Dolphins love Kayo Stadium, covering six of nine, while they have covered nine of 14 against Top 8 teams. Stick with the Phins. The Sharks concede 45% of their tries down their left so betting Kulikefu Finefuiaki to get his opportunity. He has three tries this season. Jamayne Isaako also operates on the right and has 15 tries in 16 games this season.

Tips

Best: Dolphins -4.5 ($1.90)
Next: Dolphins 13+ ($2.90)
Tryscorer: Kulikefu Finefuiaki ($17 First, $3.60 Anytime)
SGM: Kulikefu Finefuiaki Try/Jamayne Isaako Try ($6.25)

These teams met back in Round 3 and the Bulldogs eeked out a 14-10 win in a forgettable clash and given how both these teams are playing, another low-scoring match looks to be on the cards. Canterbury have conceded 12 or fewer in their last three while they have failed to score more than 16 in seven of nine. The last four Bulldogs games have failed to break 44 points while they have played in four games this season – and two in their last three – where neither team has reached 20. Canberra have conceded 16 or fewer in three of their last five while they have not topped 26 in seven straight. The under is 17-3 when the Bulldogs are off scoring 12 or fewer and 12-3 when the Raiders play at night. This total is the best bet of Round 19. Both teams concede disproportionately down their right. Matt Timoko has four tries in his last five against the Bulldogs while Lachlan Galvin has six tries in his last 12 games.

Tips

Best: Under 46.5 ($1.90)
Next: Neither Team To Score 20 Points ($5.80)
Tryscorer: Matt Timoko ($15 First, $3.25 Anytime)
SGM: Matt Timoko Try/Lachlan Galvin Try ($9.00)

There has certainly been a change in attitude at Parramatta with their defence generally stiffening up over the last month, conceding 14 or fewer in three of four. They do tend to ease up off a win though and the Roosters are a team that have few qualms going for the jugular. Parramatta are a poor 13-22 against the spread off a win while they are 8-19 against the number against Top 4 opposition. The Roosters cover at 60% when playing a team outside the Top 8 and their record at Allianz is elite, covering seven of eight. Even as a huge favourite at the ground, they cover, making the nut in six of eight at Allianz when favoured by more than double digits. Hugo Savala has six tries this season. James Tedesco has four tries in his last four games against the Eels.

Tips

Best: Sydney Roosters -13.5 ($1.83)
Next: Sydney Roosters 30+ ($4.25)
Tryscorer: Hugo Savala ($13 First, $2.50 Anytime)
SGM: Hugo Savala Try/James Tedesco Try ($4.75)

Newcastle and South Sydney have both been fighting in and around the bottom half of the Top 8 for much of the season but while the Knights have generally maintained their form over the course of 2026, South Sydney have dropped right off over the Origin period even with very few players on rep duty. The loss of Latrell Mitchell has played a major role but it is their defence that is a worry, conceding 28-plus in four of their last six. Newcastle, by contrast, have conceded 22 or fewer in six of their last seven. Newcastle have won four straight against South Sydney while they are 26-17 against the spread off a win. Souths are 17-29 against the number when playing against Top 8 opposition. The Knights can be bet with confidence. Souths have been a disaster defensively on their right edge and Dylan Lucas has eight tries in seven games. Fletcher Sharpe is a pure tryscorer with 29 tries in 40 games.

Tips

Best: Newcastle +1.5 ($1.83)
Next: Newcastle 13+ ($4.00)
Tryscorer: Dylan Lucas ($12 First, $2.30 Anytime)
SGM: Dylan Lucas Try/Fletcher Sharpe Try ($6.00)

Manly’s two worst performances this year under Kieran Foran have both come in matches that the club’s two most dynamic players – Haumole Olakau’atu and Tolutau Koula – were absent. Both will presumably be back this week with both not expected to play huge roles for the Blues. So we should see Manly back to their best and that poses problems for the Cowboys. Manly have won eight of the last 10 against North Queensland while they own a 19-8 cover record dating back to 2008. Manly have covered 10 of 13 under Foran – 10 of 11 when his dynamic duo play – and have covered 18 of 27 off a loss of more than one converted try. North Queensland have a 22-30 cover record against Top 8 teams. The Cowboys are weakest on their right edge and Ben Trbojevic has three tries in his last five games. Tolutau Koula has 23 tries in 35 games the last two seasons.

Tips

Best: Manly -4.5 ($1.85)
Next: Manly 13+ ($2.75)
Tryscorer: Ben Trbojevic
SGM: Ben Trbojevic Try/Tolutau Koula Try ($17 First, $3.45 Anytime)

No team has a bigger difference between how they play in the afternoon and how they play at night than the Melbourne Storm. And with this game under lights, they have to be taken on. Melbourne have covered just five of 19 evening matches including one of five at home under lights. They are 10-17 against the spread favoured at night by more than eight points. Gold Coast have shown slow signs of development under Josh Hannay with their defence notably improving. Gold Coast have also been reliable as big outsiders too, covering six of seven getting a start of at least eight points. Arama Hau has six tries in 13 starts this season. Jayden Campbell has seven tries in 13 matches this year – all coming against teams outside the Top 8.

Tips

Best: Gold Coast +8.5 ($1.90)
Next: Gold Coast Win ($3.00)
Tryscorer: Arama Hau ($21 First, $4.50 Anytime)
SGM: Arama Hau Try/Jayden Campbell Try ($13.00)