Few would have forecast a Sydney Roosters-Newcastle Knights Grand Final at the start of the season but it will be either the Roosters or the Knights that lift the premiership trophy on Sunday night.
The 2026 Grand Final narrative has unquestionably been highlighted by Newcastle’s stunning rise from the wooden spoon to the most unlikely of Grand Final berths, their first decider in 25 years. The city of Newcastle is in a state of delirium as Justin Holbrook’s team live out one of Rugby League’s most unlikely of fairytales.
These kinds of fairytales tend to end about now though with Grand Final history well and truly against Newcastle. No team has won the Grand Final from outside the Top 4 since the famous Canterbury team of 1995. In the NRL era, six teams have made a decider from fifth or lower. All have lost. All have lost by at least seven points. The average losing margin has been 18.5 points.
The defence of the two teams is also key here. Of the last 22 premiers, 19 have ranked in the top three defensively. The Sydney Roosters ranked third in defence this season. Newcastle ranked 10th. No team in the last two decades has won with such a poor defensive record.
The Roosters are the better team in the better spot. The Roosters have eight internationals with a further four Origin players set to run out. Six of the seven backs have played rep football. The Knights have five internationals and two more Origin players with just four current rep players.
Trent Robinson’s team have dominated the Knights for a long time. The Chooks have won six straight and 20 of 23 against the Knights. They won both meetings this year and have covered eight of the last 11.
The Roosters just have too much firepower for a Knights team that have exceeded expectations.
The Clive Churchill Medal has been won by an international or Origin player in 37 of the last 40 years and in eight of the last 10 it has been won by a fullback or half. Daly Cherry-Evans is playing a secondary role so backing James Tedesco and saving on Sam Walker looks the obvious play.
Hookers have an excellent record in Grand Finals, scoring in four of the last seven including unfashionable tryscoring rakes Mitch Kenny, Sam Verrills and Cameron Smith. Reece Robson has just three tries this year but can dart over.
Robert Toia is in excellent tryscoring form with tries in five straight games. Daniel Tupou has 10 tries in his last 11 games against Newcastle.
The Roosters project to win this and win big.
Tips
Best: Sydney Roosters -6.5 ($1.90)
Next: Sydney Roosters 30+ ($8.75)
Clive Churchill Medal: James Tedesco ($7.50)
Tryscorer: Reece Robson ($34 First, $7 Anytime)
SGM: Reece Robson Try/Robert Toia Try/Daniel Tupou Try ($27.40)
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