Our football expert Evan Psarras with his thoughts on the World Cup Semi-final between France and Spain.
Match 101: France v Spain
Location: Dallas Stadium
Time: 7:00am, Wednesday 15 July
Head to Head: France Wins (6), Spain Wins (8), Draws (2)
Key Stats
- France has scored 2+ goals in 17 of their last 19 matches
- Over 2.5 goals is 13-2 in France last 15 games
- Spain are unbeaten in their last 37 matches
- Spain have conceded 1 goal in their 6 games played in this tournament
- Mbappe has scored 8 goals and leads the tournament in shots on target (19)
Preview
It is the matchup we all expected to see in the semi finals when the draw was released and these two European giants have made it happen. France were in complete control in a 2-0 win over Morocco and it could have been more had Mbappe converted a penalty midway through the first half. He eventually opened the scoring on the hour mark with a Dembele goal just minutes later allowing them to focus on limiting Morocco’s opportunities for the final third of the contest.
It was not as straight forward for Spain who managed to take the lead midway through the first half only to conceded minutes before the break. That allowed Belgium to set their defensive lines but an injury to their veteran keeper (Courtois) had a bigger impact than anyone could have expected. With only two minutes to play in regular time, substitute keeper Senne Lammens dropped what should have been a simple save with Merino pouncing to score a second consecutive game winning goal.
The two sides last met in the semi finals of the Nations league in June last year with Spain winning a goal fest 5-4. They led 4-0 inside the hour mark before France scored multiple goals in the dying stages. Both teams to score and Over 2.5 goals have both hit in each of the last three meetings with each of the last 6 clashes producing a winner in regulation time. The French attack continues to sizzle and have now scored 2+ goals in 17 of their last 19 matches. Over 2.5 goals is 13-2 in their last 15 as a result and they lead the tournament in several attacking categories including goals scored (16) and shots on target (47).
In contrast, Spain’s focus has been defence. They have 5 clean sheets in their 6 games played in this tournament with the only goal allowed coming against Belgium. It has been the key to their success during their current undefeated run of 37 games and we have seen a similar pattern in this scenario with Under 2.5 goals holding in 7 of their last 9 last 8 knockout games in this competition. We will not see a repeat of the frenetic pace in their 5-4 Nations League clash and it would not be a shock if we fail to see a single goal scored.
Player To Watch
In a match where a single piece of brilliance can determine the winner it is impossible to ignore Kylian Mbappe. He made amends for a missed penalty by putting France in front later in the game and has now scored 8 goals from 19 shots on target in this competition. It will be harder for him to be effective against a Spanish side that are excellent at restricting free space, but the reality is that any defensive error will be punished.
Betting Tips
Best Bet: Under 2.5 goals ($1.88)
Value: HT/FT – Draw/Draw ($4.80)
SGM: Both Teams To Score – NO, 1st Half Under 1.5 goals, Under 9.5 corners ($3.89)
World Cup Videos
