The Top 6 has been decided, the Roosters have wrapped up the minor premiership and all that remains for the final round is jockeying for position to deliver the right matchup.
We have a complete mismatch to open Round 11 with the unbeaten Sydney Roosters hosting the three-win Bulldogs. In the last eight matches between a Top 6 team and one outside, the margin has been at least 28 points. Canterbury have played six games against Top 7 teams and lost all by 22 with the last four being by 30. The Roosters five games against teams who won’t play finals have resulted in wins of 28-plus with three by 40-plus. The Roosters could break the record for the biggest win here. Keeley Nizza is in the best tryscoring form of her career with doubles in two of the last three games. Jess Sergis has moved to second on the all-time tryscoring list with 42 tries in 56 games – she has three doubles in the last four weeks.
Tips
Best: Sydney Roosters -36.5 ($1.90)
Next: Sydney Roosters 51+ ($3.20)
Tryscorer: Keeley Nizza ($21 First, $3.15 Anytime)
SGM: Keeley Nizza Try/Jess Sergis 2+ Tries ($7.95)
Both the Tigers and Raiders are set to play finals football for the first time in their short histories. They have had differing seasons though. Canberra have been wildly inconsistent, beating Brisbane and running the Roosters closer than anyone, while losing to the Sharks, Cowboys and Eels. The Tigers are starting to find their level. They have beaten every team below them on the ladder while losing to the top three teams by margins of 28, 38 and 58. This game will go on whatever Canberra shows up but with no Elise Simpson and Caitlin Turnbull back for the Tigers, the value is with Wests. The Tigers have scored 11 tries from their hookers this year with Salma Nour scoring three in the last five weeks. Left wing has been a gold mine for the Raiders with Isabella Waterman scoring in her first game replacing Simpson.
Tips
Best: Wests Tigers +1.5 ($1.90)
Next: Wests Tigers 1-12 ($3.15)
Tryscorer: Salma Nour ($26 First, $4.75 Anytime)
SGM: Salma Nour Try/Isabella Waterman ($8.02)
This will be the fourth meeting between the Eels and Cowboys and with none topping 28 points there is a good degree of confidence that this match will finish under the 47.5-point total. Regardless of where this has been played, defence has been the order of the day. Parramatta have scored 17 or fewer in eight of 10 while the Cowboys have been held to six or fewer in half of their matches. Only two Cowboys matches have gone over 48 points. Rory Owen is Parramatta’s best player and she has five tries the last three weeks. Margot Vella is a quality finisher with 14 tries in 25 games.
Tips
Best: Under 47.5 ($1.90)
Next: Under 39.5 ($3.95)
Tryscorer: Rory Owen ($8 First, $1.72 Anytime)
SGM: Rory Owen Try/Margot Vella Try ($5.16)
The Dragons have played local rivals the Sharks three times and have never reached double figures in their three defeats but the Dragons have been playing much better over the last fortnight, winning in New Zealand and pushing the Broncos to the brink. Georgia Ravics is a big in for the Sharks but this line is too big. Edge Ella Koster has three tries this season, two in the last three weeks. Maria Paseka has scored in three of her last four.
Tips
Best: St George Illawarra +7.5 ($1.90)
Next: St George Illawarra Win ($2.75)
Tryscorer: Ella Koster ($26 First, $4.75 Anytime)
SGM: Ella Koster Try/Maria Paseka Try ($8.16)
Make absolutely no mistake about it: the Warriors are playing utterly horrific football. In the last three weeks they suffered the biggest loss in NRLW history to the Roosters before losing to the last-placed team at home in consecutive weeks. Brisbane are locked into a home final but really need a blowout win heading into the finals to keep pace with the top two teams. Brisbane should win this and win it in style. Lauren Dam is excellent tryscoring value week after week with nine tries in her last 21 games. Chelsea Lenarduzzi is an elite tryscoring prop who has 13 tries in 33 games across the last three seasons. Stacey Waaka is a genuine superstar who has scored in each of her last six games.
Tips
Best: Brisbane -17.5 ($1.90)
Next: Brisbane -29.5 ($3.75)
Tryscorer: Lauren Dam ($16 First, $2.60 Anytime)
SGM: Lauren Dam Try/Chelsea Lenarduzzi Try/Stacey Waaka Try ($16.91)
Newcastle have absolutely owned Gold Coast with six straight wins. That streak looks poised to end though as the Titans ride a nine-game win streak that has absolutely cemented their position as the number one challenger to the Roosters this year. And given how the Roosters have collapsed in the finals in recent years, they will fancy their chances of winning their first premiership. Gold Coast have not conceded more than 20 in their last nine matches and the limited Knights attack should struggle in this one. Evania Isa’ako has been tremendous since moving to an edge with five tries in nine games. Jaime Chapman has loved playing Newcastle with five tries in five meetings. Phoenix-Raine Hippi is an elite tryscorer with 14 tries in 16 games.
Tips
Best: Gold Coast -11.5 ($1.90)
Next: Gold Coast -17.5 ($2.50)
Tryscorer: Evania Isa’ako ($13 First, $2.15 Anytime)
SGM: Evania Isa’ako Try/Jaime Chapman Try/Phoenix Raine-Hippi Try ($6.03)
