NRL Refs Stats That Matter | Finals Week 1

Ashley Klein

• The Rabbitohs are 12-8 with a 12-8 cover record
• The Knights are 5-12 with a 7-9 cover record
• Favourites cover at 55%
• Favourites of 6.5 or more cover at 59%
• The over is 12-8 in Rabbitohs games
• The over is 11-5 in Knights games

Souths look an excellent bet in this one with Ashley Klein a big over officials and the Knights having a poor record under his whistle.

Ref Lean: South Sydney -7.5 ($1.85)

Adam Gee

• The Warriors are 7-10 with a 10-7 cover record
• The Dolphins are 6-9 with an 8-7 cover record
• The under is 11-4 in Dolphins games
• The under is 15-9 in 2026
• The under hits 55% when there is a favourite of 4 or more

Adam Gee is one of the leading under officials in the NRL this year and the Dolphins are a big under team when he is in the middle.

Ref Lean: Under 47.5 @ $1.90

Grant Atkins

• The Sharks are 9-8 with an 8-9 cover record
• The Cowboys are 7-7 with a 6-8 cover record
• Home teams cover at 58%
• Interstate teams cover at 45%
• The over is 11-6 in Sharks games
• The over is 9-5 in Cowboys games
• The over hits at 75% when a team is off conceding 50-plus

Both the Sharks and Cowboys are big over teams under Atkins and teams off conceding 50 tend to play high-scoring affairs when Atkins is in the middle.

Ref Lean: Over 47.5 @ $1.90

Gerard Sutton

• The Panthers are 21-8 with a 17-12 cover record
• The Roosters are 11-11 with a 9-13 cover record
• Favourites of 4 or more cover at 57%
• Favourites of 8 or more cover at 59%
• The under is 17-12 in Panthers games
• The under is on a 15-4 run in Sutton games

Big favourites have a tremendous record when veteran Gerard Sutton is in the middle, making Penrith an excellent play, while the under has been in hot form this year when he has the whistle.

Ref Lean: Penrith -9.5 @ $1.83 & Under 43.5 @ $1.90