NRL Tips & Preview | Finals Week 1

The 2026 finals series kicks off at Allianz Stadium on Friday night with the Bunnies and Knights squaring off. Souths return to the finals for the first time since 2022 while Newcastle are surprising participants after claiming the wooden spoon last season. Given the lengthy injury toll to the Knights and the emotion the Rabbitohs are playing with, they are deserved favourites. Newcastle have lost both starting props to go with the long-term injuries to stars Dylan Lucas and Dylan Brown. Souths are riding the emotion of Jai Arrow. The betting though does seem over the top. Souths have two comfortable wins the last two weeks but probably put neither away as they should have. Newcastle have won four of the last five against Souths while they have covered seven of 10. The Knights have been a good team to be with at night, covering seven of nine matches under lights. Souths have covered just four of 15 away from Accor and four of 14 against Top 8 opposition. The plus is the bet. Fletcher Sharpe is an elite tryscorer for a playmaker with 34 tries in 48 games. He has crossed four tries in four matches against South Sydney. David Fifita is back to his rampaging best with three tries in four weeks.

Tips
Best: Newcastle +7.5 ($1.90)
Next: Newcastle Win ($3.00)
Tryscorer: Fletcher Sharpe ($13 First, $2.90 Anytime)
SGM: Fletcher Sharpe Try/David Fifita Try ($7.25)

The 2026 season has been an unforgettable one for the Warriors, who reap the rewards from a stellar season with a home final at Mt Smart and the ability to win a preliminary final berth. The Dolphins though will not go quietly into that good night and look tremendous value. The last six clashes between the Warriors and the Dolphins have been decided by four points or fewer with the underdog covering five of the last six. These two play tight, hard-fought affairs. The big concern with the Warriors is how poorly they perform when heavily favoured, particularly at home. After sneaking home as a near-double digit favourite against Manly last week, the Warriors are now 3-14 against the spread when favoured by a try or more at Mt Smart. The Dolphins have covered five of their last six as an underdog with a 9-2 cover record when an underdog of at least a try. They are 15-9 against the spread against Top 4 opposition. The Dolphins getting 4.5 points is the standout bet of the week. Herbie Farnworth should be able to take advantage of the Warriors right edge that concedes 43% of their tries. Farnworth has 10 tries in 12 matches against the Warriors and he is in great form with five tries in his last five games.

Tips
Best: Dolphins +4.5 ($1.90)
Next: Dolphins Win ($2.45)
Tryscorer: Herbie Farnworth ($13 First, $2.60 Anytime)
SGM: Herbie Farnworth Try/Hamiso Tabuai-Fidow Try ($5.29)

Cronulla playing North Queensland in a finals match seems like a near annual tradition with this the seventh September matchup between the two sides since 2013. North Queensland were the luckiest team to make the finals, reaching the playoffs despite a differential of -84. They are the 4th team to make the finals with a negative points differential of -80 or worse. Two of the three previous teams covered. North Queensland have been utterly horrendous at times including last week when they conceded 50 at home. Teams off conceding 50-plus though cover at 60% and North Queensland do rebound well, going 14-5 against the spread off a loss of 20-plus. They are 13-8 against the number getting a start of six or more. With Cronulla in very poor form themselves and going just 3-6 against the spread in their last nine favoured away from Shark Park, the Cowboys look a strong bet getting such a big start. Jake Clifford is having the best tryscoring season of his career with nine tries in 23 appearances. Braidon Burns is airborne with 15 tries in 20 games in 2026.

Tips
Best: North Queensland +7.5 ($1.90)
Next: North Queensland Win ($2.80)
Tryscorer: Jake Clifford ($26 First, $4.50 Anytime)
SGM: Jake Clifford Try/Braidon Burns Try ($8.47)

The opening weekend of the finals wraps up with the Panthers hosting the Roosters at CommBank in a rematch of the clash four weeks back when the Chooks upset the Panthers 12-6 in a stellar defensive display. Things have changed a bit since then though with the Roosters hitting a run of poor form, Sam Walker being hurt and this match being played in afternoon conditions rather than under lights. Penrith have dominated this matchup with 12 wins in the last 14. They have covered nine of 12. The Roosters have been held to 16 or fewer in seven of the last eight clashes while the Panthers have won four of the last five finals between the teams. Penrith’s finals record is simply stellar with 11 covers in the last 13. They are 20-11 against the spread playing a Top 4 team. The Roosters, by contrast, are 9-19 against the spread against Top 4 teams while underdogs of at least six points are 3-11 against the spread the last three finals series. Confidence is very high that Penrith are heading back to the preliminary final. Casey McLean is in supreme form with four tries in his last two games including a hat-trick against the Tigers last round. He has scored in two of his three matches against the Roosters. Tom Jenkins scored 30 tries this season to finish tied for the top tryscorer in 2026. Nathan Cleary has a tremendous tryscoring record in finals with 10 tries in 25 finals matches.

Tips
Best: Penrith -9.5 ($1.90)
Next: Sydney Roosters 0-10 Points ($3.00)
Tryscorer: Casey McLean ($9.50 First, $2.10 Anytime)
SGM: Casey McLean Try/Tom Jenkins Try/Nathan Cleary Try ($9.29)