Penrith Panthers vs Sydney Roosters Prediction, Odds & Best Bets

The opening weekend of the finals wraps up with the Panthers hosting the Roosters at CommBank in a rematch of the clash four weeks back when the Chooks upset the Panthers 12-6 in a stellar defensive display. Things have changed a bit since then though with the Roosters hitting a run of poor form, Sam Walker being hurt and this match being played in afternoon conditions rather than under lights. Penrith have dominated this matchup with 12 wins in the last 14. They have covered nine of 12. The Roosters have been held to 16 or fewer in seven of the last eight clashes while the Panthers have won four of the last five finals between the teams. Penrith’s finals record is simply stellar with 11 covers in the last 13. They are 20-11 against the spread playing a Top 4 team. The Roosters, by contrast, are 9-19 against the spread against Top 4 teams while underdogs of at least six points are 3-11 against the spread the last three finals series. Confidence is very high that Penrith are heading back to the preliminary final. Casey McLean is in supreme form with four tries in his last two games including a hat-trick against the Tigers last round. He has scored in two of his three matches against the Roosters. Tom Jenkins scored 30 tries this season to finish tied for the top tryscorer in 2026. Nathan Cleary has a tremendous tryscoring record in finals with 10 tries in 25 finals matches.

Tips
Best: Penrith -9.5 ($1.90)
Next: Sydney Roosters 0-10 Points ($3.00)
Tryscorer: Casey McLean ($9.50 First, $2.10 Anytime)
SGM: Casey McLean Try/Tom Jenkins Try/Nathan Cleary Try ($9.29)