New Zealand Warriors vs Dolphins Prediction, Odds & Best Bets

The 2026 season has been an unforgettable one for the Warriors, who reap the rewards from a stellar season with a home final at Mt Smart and the ability to win a preliminary final berth. The Dolphins though will not go quietly into that good night and look tremendous value. The last six clashes between the Warriors and the Dolphins have been decided by four points or fewer with the underdog covering five of the last six. These two play tight, hard-fought affairs. The big concern with the Warriors is how poorly they perform when heavily favoured, particularly at home. After sneaking home as a near-double digit favourite against Manly last week, the Warriors are now 3-14 against the spread when favoured by a try or more at Mt Smart. The Dolphins have covered five of their last six as an underdog with a 9-2 cover record when an underdog of at least a try. They are 15-9 against the spread against Top 4 opposition. The Dolphins getting 4.5 points is the standout bet of the week. Herbie Farnworth should be able to take advantage of the Warriors right edge that concedes 43% of their tries. Farnworth has 10 tries in 12 matches against the Warriors and he is in great form with five tries in his last five games.

Tips
Best: Dolphins +4.5 ($1.90)
Next: Dolphins Win ($2.45)
Tryscorer: Herbie Farnworth ($13 First, $2.60 Anytime)
SGM: Herbie Farnworth Try/Hamiso Tabuai-Fidow Try ($5.29)