Sinner and Djokovic remain on a collision course but with a string of upsets in the 3rd Round, the quartet of Medvedev, Fonseca, Jodar and Tommy Paul have all been sent home. Only four seeded players remain in the top half and we will lose at least one with Auger-Aliassime taking on Davidovich-Fokina.
On the scoreboard a straight sets win over Brooksby looks good but it was not that straightforward for the defending champion. He dropped serve on multiple occasions and was able to win only 37% of 2nd serve points. Has he not won 87% of points behind his first serve we could be telling a very different story. The top seed gets another favourable matchup on paper against the player ranked 150 in the world but Mochizuki has already caused multiple upsets. Came through the qualifiers, had two bagels in his opening round match before beating Quinn and then sending Jodar home. Is playing a very effective brand of grass court tennis which includes taking the ball early, playing up the line with the backhand and moving in with a solid first volley. These are the tools that can disrupt Sinner who is evidently below his best. Overs.
Best Bet: Over 27.5 games ($1.80)
Many will be wondering how Djokovic beat Rinderknech in four sets. The Frenchman won 117 points to Novak’s 108 and after winning the 3rd set 6-1 looked to have the 7-time champion on the ropes. Djokovic fooled us all again but what we did see is a willingness from Djokovic to give up on a set and conserve his energy. This is critical when betting the games handicap market because Rinderknech won the same number of games as him for the match. Safiullin just destroyed Fonseca 6-3 6-3 6-3 and it is worth noting that he made the quarter finals here in 2023 – losing to Sinner in four sets. Taking him to cover the games handicap.
Best Bet: Djokovic +6.5 ($1.75)
Both men are coming off upset wins in the 3rd Round with their serve doing the damage. There won’t be many long points in this one and we can use their most recent meeting as the guide. That match ended 7-6 6-7 7-6 in Hurkacz’s favour with ZERO breaks of serve. The overall H2H is 2-2 with Struff winning the only prior clash on grass. That match also went the distance so we shouldn’t expect anything different year. There will be multiple breaks and 4-5 sets.
Best Bet: Over 40.5 games ($1.83)
Davidovich-Fokina has shown us that winning the title in Mallorca last week was no fluke. He is yet to drop a set at The Championships and has gotten through his last two matches without dropping serve! He is playing with extreme confidence and will have the benefit of breaking his duck against Auger-Aliassime earlier this year. The Canadian held a 4-0 advantage leading into their battle at the Australian Open and took out the opening two sets via tiebreaks. Davidovich-Fokina roared back to win 18 of the next 26 games and the match. There has been a high number of breakers in their previous clashes with 10 of the 16 sets they have contested producing 12 or more games. Want to be on the Overs and Davidovich-Fokina to win a tight contest.
Best Bet: Over 40.5 games
Value Bet: Davidovich-Fokina WIN/1st Set Over 12.5 games
