Round 18 will proceed without those slated for Origin duty but shapes as an important week with six Top 8 teams in action, given the chance to put a gap between the haves and have nots in 2026.
With both teams missing so much key talent, it very much shapes as a defensive battle when the two top attacking teams in the NRL open up Round 18. Penrith have Nathan Cleary and Isaah Yeo on Origin duty along with Liam Martin while Souths have just Cameron Murray away playing for his state but have Latrell Mitchell leading a hefty injury list. Penrith’s scoring drops 6.9ppg when Cleary is out and a remarkable 10.7ppg when Cleary and Yeo are missing. Souths scoring drops 3.8ppg when Mitchell is out. Both teams are in huge under spots with the under 19-8 when Penrith are off a loss and 35-21 when they play a Top 8 team and 21-6 when Souths play in Sydney away from Accor and 23-12 when they are off a win. This total is far too big. Souths concede 43% of their tries down the right, which bodes well for left edge Scott Sorensen. Tallis Duncan is flying with seven tries in 14 games this season. Penrith concede 44% of tries down their left edge.
Tips
Best: Under 45.5 ($1.98)
Next: Neither Team To Score 20 ($5.00)
Tryscorer: Scott Sorensen ($20 First, $4.60 Anytime)
SGM: Scott Sorensen Try/Tallis Duncan Try ($14.25)
The Dragons were more than a little unlucky last week against the Raiders but look ripe for the picking this week against a Tigers team that is just a very different outfit when Adam Doueihi plays. The halfback was outstanding against the Knights and certainly instilled more defensive resolve in the Tigers. Benji Marshall’s troops have had the best of this matchup recently with five wins in the last seven meetings including wins in their last two on the road to the Red V. This is a handy spot for the Tigers too with teams off conceding 13 or fewer and losing covering at 79% the following week. The Tigers have covered five of seven in the spot while they are 5-1 against the number when favoured. The Tigers are a high confidence play against a one-win Dragons team that will take more harm than good from last week’s close call against Canberra. Adam Doueihi looked superb in his return last week and he has five tries in nine games this season. Api Koroisau is dangerous out of dummy half and the Dragons did concede to a hooker last week.
Tips
Best: Wests Tigers -6.5 ($1.90)
Next: Wests Tigers 13+ ($2.60)
Tryscorer: Adam Doueihi ($13 First, $2.65 Anytime)
SGM: Adam Doueihi Try/Api Koroisau Try ($9.75)
Brisbane’s title defence has been nothing short of shambolic. Take away from their hefty injury toll, the good players have been poor and the effort simply hasn’t been there. With their season dangling by a thread last week though, we saw a much better effort against the Roosters. If that carries over against Cronulla, even with their large contingent of injuries and Origin players, they can compete with the Sharks. Brisbane have won 10 of their last 13 against Cronulla with three covers in the last four meetings. The key to this one is the number. Brisbane have covered seven of 11 getting at least six points while they have covered five of six at Suncorp as an outsider. Cronulla have been held to 10 or fewer in their last two and are hardly world beaters. The plus looks the play. Cronulla concede 45% of tries down their left so Jordan Riki on the right edge looks value. He has three tries in 13 games this season. Braydon Trindall has seven tries in 14 appearances this year.
Tips
Best: Brisbane +6.5 ($1.90)
Next: Brisbane Win ($2.75)
Tryscorer: Jordan Riki ($23 First, $4.90 Anytime)
SGM: Jordan Riki Try/Braydon Trindall Try ($11.00)
No Koula. No Olakau’atu. No worries. Manly are a completely different team under Kieran Foran and with Parramatta on their heels, the Sea Eagles look set for a huge win. The defence of Manly has risen to second under Kieran Foran, conceding more than 18 just once in his 12 games at the helm. That bodes poorly for the Eels, who have scored 15 or fewer in four of their last five. Parramatta shape up for this one without Mitchell Moses and their win record falls from 57% to 29% without him. The Sea Eagles have covered nine of 12 under Foran while they are 8-3 against the spread against teams outside the Top 8. They have also covered six of eight road games. Parramatta have covered just two of seven home games and are 14-30 against the spread against Top 8 opposition. The Sea Eagles win this and win it well. Tom Trbojevic has crossed six times in eight games this year and has scored in seven of 15 against Parramatta. Lehi Hopoate is in career-best form with 12 tries in 14 games. Ben Trbojevic is a new player this season with five tries in 15 games including last week.
Tips
Best: Manly -9.5 ($1.90)
Next: Manly 19+ ($3.00)
Tryscorer: Tom Trbojevic ($10 First, $1.85 Anytime)
SGM: Tom Trbojevic Try/Lehi Hopoate Try/Ben Trbojevic Try ($8.00)
The Dolphins have been the form team of the competition, riding an eight-game win streak. That looks like it could end this week though with the Dolphins sending five players to Origin as well as losing halfback Isaiya Katoa. Newcastle have completely dominated this matchup with five straight wins, covering the last four. The afternoon timeslot is key here: the Knights are 29-18 against the spread in day games while the Dolphins are 9-17 against the number. Newcastle are also 13-9 against the spread as a home underdog, including a 7-2 cover record as a home underdog off a win. The Dolphins are 2-4 against the spread as an interstate favourite. Newcastle are tremendous value. Dylan Lucas is absolutely flying with seven tries in six games. Trey Mooney has five of his seven top grade tries this season.
Tips
Best: Newcastle +2.5 ($1.85)
Next: Newcastle Win ($2.10)
Tryscorer: Dylan Lucas ($13 First, $2.70 Anytime)
SGM: Dylan Lucas Try/Trey Mooney Try ($14.25)
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