The bottom half of the draw has been blown wide open with Swiatek and Rybakina both bowing out in straight sets. It is great news for our futures bets with Keys and Noskova still alive. The only downside is that they meet in the 4th Round and only one of them can continue into the second week.
Elise Mertens took a step towards silencing her critics by knocking out former champion Elena Rybakina. She won in straight sets despite winning only 32% of her 2nd serve points – a very low number and a figure that she must improve on. Mertens just defeated a more accomplished player but this time she will need to deal with a player in outstanding form. Bouzkova won the title in Nottingham a fortnight ago and her confidence levels are at an all-time high. She saved 17 of 20 break points that she faced against Samsonova and holds a 2-1 lead in the H2H with Mertens. Bouzkova.
Best Bet: Bouzkova +1.5 ($1.82)
Have constantly highlighted recent form as the best indicator in women’s tennis and this is yet another example of it. The duo of Noskova and Keys won titles on grass (Berlin and Eastbourne respectively) and have continued their winning ways at The Championships. Noskova got the better of in-form Sorana Cirstea while Keys accounted for last year’s runner-up (Anisimova) in her 3rd round match. The pair possess similar game styles build behind a flat first serve and heavy forehand which they can crush down the line. Executing at critical points on the game, capitalising on opportunities and putting pressure on their opponent’s 2nd serve will determine the winner. Can see this one going the distance. Overs.
Best Bet: Over 22.5 games ($1.92)
Fresh off a semi final run at the French Open, Kostyuk is certain to enter the top 10 when the rankings are adjusted next week. A battle against a qualifier should be nothing more than a walk in the park on paper but that would be discrediting what Krueger has done this week. Krueger came from a set down to upset Vekic in her opening match and has dropped a total of only 6 games in the last 4 sets she has played. That is dominance! Won close to 80% of 1st serve points in her last two matches and that tells us she will hold her serve often. They have met once before, at the Adelaide International last year, and it was Krueger who won a tight three set match. This one could go wither way.
Best Bet: Over 21.5 games ($1.78)
Tipped Eala to post an upset win over Swiatek and she delivered by sending the defending champion home in straight sets. It was a clear case of a matchup advantage that the bookmakers decided to ignore. She has been installed as a clear favourite for this one as a result and did win her only prior battle against Paolini 6-1 7-6 in Dubai earlier this year. Believe there has been an overreaction to her win over Swiatek and that makes Paolini a play here. The Italian beat Sakkari 6-1 6-2 and as former finalist here, knows how to win on grass. The emotion of beating Swiatek is something to consider for Eala and replicating that performance will not be easy. Paolini will win at least one set.
Best Bet: Paolini +1.5 Sets ($1.53)
