Match Preview
The trading team have finally got it right by installing Queensland as favourites for the decider – but even still they have not gone short enough on the Maroons.
The starting point has to be the fact that Queensland are up 64 points to 28 this series when they have had 13 players on the field. Kalyn Ponga’s send off in the opener with 23 minutes remaining has had a monumental impact on this series. Not only did it gift the Blues a win in the opener, it really suckered the Blues into thinking they were in any way in this series. They have generally embarrassed themselves and their state and the fact Laurie Daley was not fired mid-series is an indictment on the NSWRL.
They are getting what they deserve with the team that has been selected for the decider, one so confused it is fair to wonder if the Blues will not only move on from Daley but take sole selection of teams out of the hands of the coach.
It is beyond a mess. Daley has opted against good judgment to run a Penrith-style attack – one that Billy Slater has figured out time and time again – yet picked a fullback Nathan Cleary has never meshed with and a hooker whose style decidedly does not suit such an overly-structured attack. The cherry on top was dumping Brian To’o and replacing him with a pseudo-rookie and a player few would have put in the mix. Dropping Tolutau Koula and keeping Mark Nawaqanitawase showed how Daley views the game. Mitchell Moses being retained over Ethan Strange was odd. Haumole Olakau’atu not starting is incredibly odd. Mitch Barnett was incredibly lucky to retain his spot.
There is just no way this team with a game plan being developed by Laurie Daley can go with Queensland and Billy Slater.
On top, seven of the eight deciders at Suncorp over the last two decades have been won by Queensland while the last three deciders have had double digit margins. The Maroons have also won nine of the last 14 at Suncorp.
The Blues are going to struggle to score. Queensland won’t against a NSW side that lacks resilience. Queensland win and cover in comfort.
Recommended Bets
Best: Queensland -4.5 ($1.90)
Next: NSW Team Total Under 19.5 ($1.90)
Value: Queensland 13+ ($3.00)
Match Props
NSW have struggled to score early in Origins of late and have struggled to score points full stop under Laurie Daley so playing against a fast Blues start with a number of angles here is the play. The Blues have topped 18 in a paltry five of 20 games with Laurie Daley at the helm. In the last 11 Origins, the Blues have been held to six or fewer an incredible seven times. In Daley’s 20 games in charge, the Blues have been held to six or fewer first half points 12 times. The $2.20 available is a very good bet. Throwing a dart at 24-12 correct score but working around NSW not scoring many at all and rolling with Sam Walker’s incredible goalkicking streak to continue in a game not many penalties are expected to be given in.
Recommended Bets
Best: NSW 1st Half Points Under 9.5 ($1.98)
Next: NSW 1st Half Points 6 or Under ($2.20)
Value: Pick The Score: Queensland 24-12 ($81.00)
Try Bets
Hamiso Tabuai-Fidow has been truly elite as a tryscoring proposition at State of Origin level with 13 tries in 12 matches. Queensland have won seven games with the Hammer playing and he has scored 10 tries in six of those.
Selwyn Cobbo could not have dominated opposite number Mark Nawaqanitawase more in Game II, his jumpy defence far more suited to union than league. Cobbo scored three tries – and scored three on him in their only meeting at club level. Cobbo has eight tries in his last five NRL matches with three doubles.
Sam Walker has been outstanding this series and one suspects his first try in Maroon is not far away. He has six tries in 14 games for the Roosters this season and is usually overs in tryscoring markets.
Recommended Bets
Best: Hamiso Tabuai-Fidow Try ($2.15)
Next: Selwyn Cobbo 2+ Tries ($4.10)
Value: Hamiso Tabuai-Fidow Try/Selwyn Cobbo Try/Sam Walker Try ($11.47)
Man of the Match Preview
Cameron Munster has been a prolific Man of the Match winner at Origin levels, claiming one in each of the 2020, 2022 and 2025 series. His form has been up-and-down this year but he catches the eye, he will be lifting the trophy and spine players have won 17 of the last 21 Man of the Match gongs. A Queensland half has won in five of the last seven series and we can rule a line through Sam Walker as no player has won two gongs in a series in 15 years.
Selwyn Cobbo was utterly dominant in Game II and as noted in the tryscorer preview, he continues to be matched up against turnstile Mark Nawaqanitawase. His numbers were incredible and he has widely been considered the unlucky one – often a guide for the next man of the match.
Reuben Cotter has a prior Man of the Match award and shifts back to the middle with a move to lock. His numbers have been very good again and he gets a low-scoring game projected for this one.
Recommended Bets
Best: Cameron Munster ($9.50)
Next: Selwyn Cobbo ($20)
Value: Reuben Cotter ($36)