There is a great mix of players remaining in the bottom half. We have the most recent major winner (Zverev), several veterans attempting to win their maiden Grand Slam (De Minaur, Dimitrov, Fritz and Bublik) along with a local hope in Arthur Fery. Let’s find out who will step up and claim a spot in the quarter finals.
The prediction was that Zverev would beat Giron in straight sets and the French Open champion delivered. In 10 sets played he has dropped serve a total of only three times which leaves Lehecka with a tough task. Lehecka’s last two matches came against Molcan and Munar – two players who do not possess a big serve. This meant that the Czech was able to consistently make an impression in return games. He won 51% of all return points against Molcan so we should almost disregard his prior performances. Zverev on the other hand has won 94% of service games and 82% of 1st serve points for the tournament. What is of more interest to us is the H2H which reads 1-1. Lehecka won their first meeting and took a set off Zverev when losing the other. Can see the Czech winning a set but not the match.
Best Bet: Zverev -1.5 Sets ($1.64)
Cobolli’s win against Khachanov had one of the most unusual scorelines you’ll ever see. The Italian was on the wrong end of a bagel in the first set, then traded tiebreakers before winning the final two sets 6-2 6-2. He cannot afford such dramatic dips against De Minaur as the Aussie is relentless with his application and hustle. That said, there are cracks in the Aussie’s game as well – especially when he faces opponents who can create their own power. He covered the games handicap despite dropping serve four times against Svajda and I am not prepared to completely buy into his 2-0 record against Cobolli. Their most recent meeting came almost two years ago and a lot has happened since. The Italian made the quarters here 12 months ago and we should not forget that he just made the final of the French Open. De Minaur may be seeded no.5 but this is where things get tricky for him. He is 6-6 in his last 12 fourth round matches at the majors and is under the odds for this one. Upset alert.
Best Bet: Over 36.5 games ($1.82)
Value Bet: Cobolli WIN ($3.50)
Fery won fewer points, fewer games and was broken 8 times by Zizou Bergs but was able to ride the crowd to victory. A win over Dimitrov would see him cash a cheque which is almost the equivalent of his entire career earnings but he cannot afford to drop the opening set for a fourth consecutive match. Dimitrov was in vintage form in the opening two sets against Berrettini but struggled in the next two sets and looks physically spent. The Bulgarian managed to break early in the 5th and hold his nerve the rest of the way. He has been excellent on serve throughout the tournament, holding 90% of the time, and what makes that figure impressive is that he has played Mensik and Berrettini in his last two matches. His slice backhand and prowess in the forecourt will be too much for Fery to handle. Can see him rolling the Brit in straight sets.
Best Bet: Dimitrov -3.5 ($1.75)
Value Bet: Sets Dimitrov 3-0 ($2.90)
Both men made slow starts in their respective 3rd Round matches – dropping serve early and losing the opening set. Fritz responded and won the next here sets without dropping serve again in the match. Bublik on the other hand was in a war with Tiafoe. He won the next two sets in tiebreakers and saved 9 set points in a pivotal 3rd set. He ended the match with 48 aces but notably was only able to break serve once in 5 sets of tennis. A single break of serve in 26 return games is not good enough, especially against Fritz who has dropped serve just twice in the entire tournament. The H2H reads 4-4 but the most important prior clash took place a fortnight ago on grass in Stuttgart. Fritz won comfortably 6-4 6-4 with Bublik looking lost on court as he was able to win a mediocre 31% of 2nd serve points. Fritz is the best bet of the day.
Best Bet: Fritz -2.5 ($1.73)
