The first round is in the books at Royal Birkdale.
Just six holes into his championship, Scottie Scheffler ($6.00) had surged to 4-under and into the lead, with early murmurs already suggesting he could stroll to back-to-back Claret Jugs. That momentum stalled as the day wore on, however, with Scheffler losing two strokes on the greens over his back nine.
Cameron Young ($11.00) is another to keep a close eye on. He thrived in similar firm, fast conditions at St Andrews in 2022, and currently sits just two shots off the lead. Importantly, Young teed off in the tougher afternoon wave, where the wind picked up and the course played roughly a stroke harder. With calmer conditions forecast for the morning, he looks well placed to make an early move (Cam Young leader after Round 2 $10.00).
I’m happy siding with the class edge here, even though none of this treble impressed on Thursday. Berger continues to work his way back from injury, and at +6 will need to take on the course aggressively. That could well come back to bite him on a tough course. Echavarria is playing just his second Open after missing the cut last year. Cantlay, meanwhile, brings stronger links credentials, including an 8th-place finish at the firm 2022 Open, and looks the most likely to steady the ship and play his way into the weekend.
I’m calling an upset in this group. Justin Thomas has historically struggled in the Open Championship, with just one Top 30 finish in nine starts. Jason Day has better links pedigree, but arrived out of form with only one Top 40 in his last six events. That showed on Thursday as he ranked 145th of 156 for putting shotting a 3-over 73. By contrast, Noren has an excellent links record finishing 23rd or better in five of his last six Open Championships. He struck the ball well on Thursday despite a rare off day on the greens. Given he ranks 3rd in this field for putting over the past 12 months, a bounce-back feels likely.
A relatively straightforward play to round things out. Rozner is widely regarded as one of the stronger wind players on the DP World Tour and has consistently performed well on links setups. He ranked 40th for approach play on Thursday, while both his opponents sat well outside the Top 100 for ball-striking. Having already won this 3-ball by three shots on Thursday, he looks well positioned to repeat, particularly with the afternoon wind expected to strengthen again.
Cantlay over Echavarria and Berger + Noren over Thomas and Day + Rozner over Yonezawa and Surratt @ $13.70
Multi Pays $13.70