Nations Championship Rugby Week 3 Tips, Predictions & Best Bets

It hasn’t been an amazing start to the tournament for the All Blacks, but they’re unbeaten, and that’s all that Dave Rennie would have wanted. They got through a tough match against France in Christchurch, and although the score was close in the end, they never looked like losing. It was also close against Italy after 40 minutes last week, but the ABs eventually found their rhythm. Playing at Eden Park is a huge boost for the home side, and even good Irish teams have failed to win at the fortress. Considering the venue, the -10.5 line is generous from the TAB, so include the All Blacks -10.5 in all Nations Championship bets this week.

The beauty of this tournament is that it shines a light on the second-tier nations like Japan. They have a win over Italy before losing to Ireland last week, and although they deserve plenty of credit for those performances, France could give them a rude awakening. France lost their opener to New Zealand before handing Australia a one-sided loss. They have played best in the second half, but they should dominate Japan from the outset to cover the -27.5 line, which is a fair assessment of this game from line setters.

Australia is still a fair way off its heyday, and although they have improved over the last few years, the All Blacks will be happy to have drawn them in their group for the 2027 World Cup. The Wallabies have losses to Ireland and France, and although Italy isn’t in the same class as the European heavyweights, we expect improvement from the Italians following a big loss to the All Blacks. They played well for 40 minutes, which should be enough to cover the +17.5 spread against an Australian outfit that isn’t used to scoring one-sided wins. Punters should expect a close game, and Italy could get its chance to pull off an upset late in the contest.

We feel a bit sorry for Fiji during this tournament. They had to play in England last week and now they have a home game against Scotland at Murrayfield in Edinburgh, so they’ve been set up to fail. It’s disappointing for the island nation, and the struggle was real against England last week. They were manhandled in every area, and although Scotland ranks below England, they should still win and cover the -17.5 spread. Scotland has played well so far, and this is their best chance to creep up the Nations Championship leaderboard.

We didn’t expect Wales to be so underrated against South Africa this week. It’s going to be a tough game from the Europeans, especially at altitude, but 40.5 points is a huge margin, and Wales has played well enough to cover the spread. They didn’t play too badly against Argentina last week, and South Africa could fall victim to taking their foot off the gas. They didn’t play overly well against Scotland when winning 42-28, and if there are only 14 points between them and Scotland, there shouldn’t be 40 points between South Africa and Wales. This pick is purely based on numbers, so take the underdogs at +40.5.

It might be a different sport, but we have Argentina beating England for the second time this week. English sport fans would hate to see them fall twice to the Argies, having lost the Football World Cup semi-final on Thursday. However, it has a good chance of happening on Sunday morning. We rate Argentina slightly better than England with the help of home field and they got back to their best with a win over Wales. The Argentinian counterattack could be too much for the visitors, who scored easily against Fiji last week, but this is a much different contest. Take the $2.05 odds before Argentina firms in rugby betting markets.