Ellerslie hosts a nine-race card on Saturday, with the track rated a Soft5 and the rail out 3m. Whilst showers are forecast ahead of raceday, expecting the track to remain a Soft5.
Mitch Davis has been through the form guide and speed maps and has provided his race analysis and betting strategy for each of the nine races at the Ellerslie meeting on Saturday 19 September below:
Shore Breeze (#13) is a 3yo Too Darn Hot filly on debut for Roger James & Robert Wellwood. She’s trialled very impressively leading into this, finding the line strongly under her own steam at her latest hit-out. George Rooke taking the reins is a plus, and she maps to settle back in the field from a wide barrier. Expecting her to run a very big race on debut.
| 13. Shore Breeze (9) J: George Rooke 55.5kg T: Roger James & Robert Wellwood | |||
| Daughter of Too Darn Hot from Onetangi on debut. Ran second at recent trial. Worth watching for any market moves. | |||
Paper Romance (#5) sat behind the tearaway leader last start at Ruakaka before going on by and winning impressively late in Maiden company. He maps to lead from the wide gate, where I expect he should be able to dictate terms after finding the front under Matt Cartwright. Should that eventuate, he will be taking plenty of catching here.
| 5. Paper Romance (8) J: Matt Cartwright 58.5kg 72241 T: Aimee Black | |||
| Well fancied last time when he broke through for a maiden win over 2100m at Ruakaka. Can go on with it. | |||
Santa Catalina (#4) got back and was finding the line well late at Te Rapa last start, doing so over a distance short of her best when finishing 8th. She comes here third-up now this prep and looks suited stepping out over a trip here. She looks well placed down on the minimum with Kyle Wilson-Taylor aboard carrying just 54kg also. She maps to settle back in the field in an evenly run race, before looking to finish off over the top late. Looks well placed to run a much more competitive race here.
| 4. Santa Catalina (8) J: Kyle Wilson-Taylor 54kg 08X88 T: Peter & Shaun McKay | |||
| Looking to improved performances this campaign as she hasn’t found much this time in. Looking for return to form here and could find some old form. | |||
Grocer’s Girl (#7) got a great trailing run here last start, though she was a touch unlucky when held up early in the straight, before stretching out nicely once clear to finish 4th. She’s suited remaining at 1400m now second-up, and Kyle Wilson-Taylor taking over looks a plus. She maps to settle up on speed from her middle draw in a race lacking tempo. Should get her chance to go close here.
| 7. Grocer’s Girl (5) J: Kyle Wilson-Taylor 54kg 252X4 T: Tony Pike | |||
| Solid effort last start when resuming, beaten 1.5 lengths into fourth over 1400m at this track. Cannot be disregarded on the back of a good return. | |||
Towering Vision (#5) ran a good race for 6th here last start, and would’ve finished much closer to race rival Getaway, but copped a slight check late from her costing him some ground. Now third-up, he maps to settle midfield with cover from a nice low gate in what should be a genuine tempo being set out in front early. Should be peaking here, and can go close.
| 5. Towering Vision (2) J: Michael McNab 57.5kg 07X36 T: Mark Walker & Sam Bergerson | |||
| Finished third first-up at Taupo then couldn’t repeat the dose last time when sixth at this track over 1600m when beaten 4.5 lengths. Tough to beat on best. Can take this out. | |||
Sarti (#2) got home strongly from the back in a moderately run race at Te Rapa last start, posting the fastest closing sectionals of the race, comparable to the fastest closing splits in the Foxbridge Plate run on the same card. He’s suited stepping out to 1300m now second-up, and provided he begins evenly, he maps to settle back of midfield with cover. Should take plenty of beating if he’s within striking range turning for home.
| 2. Sarti (5) J: Michael McNab 60kg 12X3 T: Ken Kelso | |||
| Returned from a spell last start with a solid third, beaten 0.9 lengths, at Te Rapa over 1200m. Fitter and worth following up. | |||
Golden Wings (#7) resumes here, last seen finishing well down the track in the Aotearoa Classic back in January. He’s trialled very sharply ahead of his return, leading and winning under his own steam. He maps to lead this from a handy gate under Joe Doyle, where I expect he will take plenty of catching over the 1200m journey. Can return with a bang here.
| 7. Golden Wings (4) J: Joe Doyle 57kg 4120X T: Sophia Nolan and Hanna Orting | |||
| Returns from a lay-off. Recent trial winner at Te Rapa. Opened last campaign with a second at this track over 1200m. Expecting a strong run fresh. | |||
Arabian Songbird (#6) resumes here for Roger James & Robert Wellwood, last seen closing off nicely from the back of the field for 4th in the Gr.2 Auckland Thoroughbred Breeders’ at Pukekohe back in November. She’s trialled very well ahead of this, sprinting well when nudged along by Abinith Simon, who remains aboard for raceday too, and his claim sees her carry just 50.5kg. She maps to settle back of midfield with cover off an even speed, watch for her to be surging home late.
| 1. Meaningful Star (1) J: Krishi Ramdhun 58kg 8224X T: Bruce Wallace & Grant Cooksley | |||
| Returns from a spell. Finished fifth in most recent trial at Te Awamutu. Opened last campaign with a 13th at Te Rapa over 1200m. Capable of a bold return. | |||
| 2. Reward Smile (4) J: Tom Wigram 56.5kg 41716 T: Jenna Mahoney | |||
| Experienced galloper who wasn’t far away last time when sixth over 1100m at Te Rapa. Not far from the winner last time and can play a role. | |||
| 3. Cannon Hill (13) J: Sam McNab 57kg 3513X T: Tony Pike | |||
| Returns from a break. Ran fifth in a trial at Te Rapa. Opened last campaign with a fifth at this track over 1300m. Expecting a strong run fresh. | |||
| 4. Riverplate (9) J: Matt Cartwright 58.5kg 21402 T: Andrew Campbell | |||
| Found one better last time out over 1400m at New Plymouth Raceway, beaten just 0.3 lengths. Right in the mix again. | |||
| 5. Boxmoss (7) J: Warren Kennedy 54.5kg 9711X T: Chris Wood | |||
| Has not raced since scoring over 2100m at this track on June 20. Has solid top 4 claims. | |||
| 6. Arabian Songbird (6) J: Abinith Simon 50kg X114X T: Roger James & Robert Wellwood | |||
| Resuming from a spell. Placed in a recent trial. Opened last campaign with a win at this track over 1300m. Has been in the money at every first-up run. Everything points to a effective return. | |||
| 7. Top Shelf (8) J: Michael McNab 54kg 6122X T: Mark Walker & Sam Bergerson | |||
| Resuming from a spell. Fitter for a recent trial at Taupo. Opened last campaign with a sixth at Pukekohe over 1500m. Expected to feature. | |||
| 8. Mosinvader (2) J: Kyle Wilson-Taylor 54kg 36X63 T: Lance O’Sullivan & Andrew Scott | |||
| Reliable gelding with a solid top-three strike rate. Good effort last start but found a couple better over 1400m at Ruakaka. Freshened up and will be hard to hold out. | |||
| 9. Whiskey ‘N Roses (5) J: Joe Doyle 54kg 78X80 T: Joanne Surgenor | |||
| Hasn’t made an impact in the two appearances since resuming, the latest effort a mediocre 11th over 1100m at Te Rapa. Peaking now and good enough to test this field. | |||
| 10. Perfect Dividends (12) J: Hayley Hassman 53kg 14122 T: J & R Vance | |||
| Has been about the mark of late, filling a minor placing at Cambridge Synthetic two runs back then finishing second last start over 1300m at Cambridge Synthetic. Must come into consideration over this longer journey. | |||
| 11. Trust In You (10) J: Erin Leighton 54kg 2800X T: Bruce Wallace & Grant Cooksley | |||
| Returns from a spell. Fitter for a recent trial at Te Awamutu. Opened last campaign with a seventh at Te Aroha over 1600m. Will take great benefit from this outing. | |||
| 12. Sassy Lass (3) J: Sienna Brown 51kg 9096X T: Chris Wood | |||
| Returns from a spell. Ran fifth in a trial at Cambridge Synthetic. Opened last campaign with a seventh at Te Rapa over 1600m. Will improve on whatever she does in this. | |||
| 13. War Queen (11) J: George Rooke 54kg 4223X T: Kurtis Pertab | |||
| Resuming from a spell. Placed in a recent trial. Opened last campaign with a fourth at Trentham over 1200m. Include in all top 4 combos. | |||
Alker Traz (#2) trailed the leaders last start at Ruakaka before proving too strong late to win in Maiden company. He now finds himself in a very even R65 contest, which doesn’t look out of reach for him going off what he’s shown in his two starts to date. He maps to settle ahead of midfield with cover from a nice low gate, where he should get a very economical run under Jasmine Fawcett. May just need some luck late to be playing a part in this.
| 2. Alker Traz (2) J: Jasmine Fawcett 59kg 31 T: Michelle Bradley | |||
| Promising gelding who did well to finish third on debut then backed that up with a nice win last time over 1600m at Ruakaka. Heading the right way and is expected to go well again. | |||

