Ellerslie hosts a nine-race card on Saturday, with the track rated a Soft5 and the rail out 3m. Whilst showers are forecast ahead of raceday, expecting the track to remain a Soft5.
Mitch Davis has been through the form guide and speed maps and has provided his race analysis and betting strategy for each of the nine races at the Ellerslie meeting on Saturday 19 September below:
Shore Breeze (#13) is a 3yo Too Darn Hot filly on debut for Roger James & Robert Wellwood. She’s trialled very impressively leading into this, finding the line strongly under her own steam at her latest hit-out. George Rooke taking the reins is a plus, and she maps to settle back in the field from a wide barrier. Expecting her to run a very big race on debut.
| 13. Shore Breeze (9) 55.5kg |
Paper Romance (#5) sat behind the tearaway leader last start at Ruakaka before going on by and winning impressively late in Maiden company. He maps to lead from the wide gate, where I expect he should be able to dictate terms after finding the front under Matt Cartwright. Should that eventuate, he will be taking plenty of catching here.
| 5. Paper Romance (7) 58.5kg72241 |
Santa Catalina (#4) got back and was finding the line well late at Te Rapa last start, doing so over a distance short of her best when finishing 8th. She comes here third-up now this prep and looks suited stepping out over a trip here. She looks well placed down on the minimum with Kyle Wilson-Taylor aboard carrying just 54kg also. She maps to settle back in the field in an evenly run race, before looking to finish off over the top late. Looks well placed to run a much more competitive race here.
| 4. Santa Catalina (8) 54kg08X88 |
Grocer’s Girl (#7) got a great trailing run here last start, though she was a touch unlucky when held up early in the straight, before stretching out nicely once clear to finish 4th. She’s suited remaining at 1400m now second-up, and Kyle Wilson-Taylor taking over looks a plus. She maps to settle up on speed from her middle draw in a race lacking tempo. Should get her chance to go close here.
| 7. Grocer’s Girl (5) 54kg252X4 |
Towering Vision (#5) ran a good race for 6th here last start, and would’ve finished much closer to race rival Getaway, but copped a slight check late from her costing him some ground. Now third-up, he maps to settle midfield with cover from a nice low gate in what should be a genuine tempo being set out in front early. Should be peaking here, and can go close.
| 5. Towering Vision (1) 57.5kg07X36 |
Sarti (#2) got home strongly from the back in a moderately run race at Te Rapa last start, posting the fastest closing sectionals of the race, comparable to the fastest closing splits in the Foxbridge Plate run on the same card. He’s suited stepping out to 1300m now second-up, and provided he begins evenly, he maps to settle back of midfield with cover. Should take plenty of beating if he’s within striking range turning for home.
| 2. Sarti (5) 60kg12X3 |
Golden Wings (#7) resumes here, last seen finishing well down the track in the Aotearoa Classic back in January. He’s trialled very sharply ahead of his return, leading and winning under his own steam. He maps to lead this from a handy gate under Joe Doyle, where I expect he will take plenty of catching over the 1200m journey. Can return with a bang here.
| 7. Golden Wings (4) 57kg4120X |
Arabian Songbird (#6) resumes here for Roger James & Robert Wellwood, last seen closing off nicely from the back of the field for 4th in the Gr.2 Auckland Thoroughbred Breeders’ at Pukekohe back in November. She’s trialled very well ahead of this, sprinting well when nudged along by Abinith Simon, who remains aboard for raceday too, and his claim sees her carry just 50.5kg. She maps to settle back of midfield with cover off an even speed, watch for her to be surging home late.
| 7. Top Shelf (8) 54kg6122X | ||
| 2. Reward Smile (4) 56.5kg41716 | ||
| 9. Whiskey ‘N Roses (5) 54kg78X80 | ||
| 6. Arabian Songbird (6) 50kgX114X | ||
| 5. Boxmoss (7) 54.5kg9711X | ||
| 8. Mosinvader (2) 54kg36X63 | ||
| 3. Cannon Hill (13) 57kg3513X | ||
| 11. Trust In You (10) 54kg2800X | ||
| 13. War Queen (11) 54kg4223X | ||
| 1. Meaningful Star (1) 58kg8224X | ||
| 12. Sassy Lass (3) 51kg9096X | ||
| 10. Perfect Dividends (12) 53kg14122 | ||
| 4. Riverplate (9) 58.5kg21402 |
Alker Traz (#2) trailed the leaders last start at Ruakaka before proving too strong late to win in Maiden company. He now finds himself in a very even R65 contest, which doesn’t look out of reach for him going off what he’s shown in his two starts to date. He maps to settle ahead of midfield with cover from a nice low gate, where he should get a very economical run under Jasmine Fawcett. May just need some luck late to be playing a part in this.
| 2. Alker Traz (2) 59kg31 | |||
| Promising gelding who did well to finish third on debut then backed that up with a nice win last time over 1600m at Ruakaka. Heading the right way and is expected to go well again. | |||


