The Melbourne Cup headlines Flemington’s 10-race program on Tuesday, with the Group 1 staying feature the highlight of the day.
The Group 3 Darley Maribyrnong Plate and Group 3 The Hong Kong Jockey Club Stakes also feature on the card.
Showers are forecast, so the track conditions will be worth monitoring. Our race analysis considers the key runners, main winning chances and betting opportunities across all 10 races.
Here’s our assessment of the Flemington card.
ROYAL PRESS (1) brings useful race experience into this two-year-old contest, where it can make a significant difference.
The Tony & Calvin McEvoy-trained colt won both jump-outs before heading to Caulfield for the Listed Debutant Stakes.
He showed good speed to lead, but had pressure throughout and was caught right on the line, going down by a nose.
He should take plenty from that run and has drawn to get a great trip.
| 1. Royal Press (9) 58kg2 | |||
| Was well-supported at debut, 2nd in a small field in the LR Debutante Stakes at Caulfield on October 14 over 1000m, nose behind Soldi with 58kg at $3. All important race experience and that will count for plenty. | |||
JOHNICH (7) has put together a strong preparation and looks ready to reach his peak.
The Jason Warren-trained gelding began with a win at Geelong, then closed off well from the second half of the field to finish 1.5 lengths third at Mornington.
He took another step at Caulfield last start over this distance. Harry Coffey gave him an excellent ride, moving three-wide to sit outside the lead before the turn. Johnich responded well in the straight, winning by a neck and beating several rivals he meets again here.
The son of Dundeel is well suited by the distance. The draw is a little awkward, but Coffey should be able to work forward and find a prominent spot.
| 7. Johnich (14) 60kg5×131 | |||
| Recent form sound. Most recently won by a neck in a Bm78 at Caulfield on October 14 over 2000m defeating Politely Dun carrying 56kg at $14. Before that 3rd of 13 in a Bm84 at Mornington on September 26 over 2000m, on a slow track; 1.5 len behind Ziryab with 54kg at $21. Racing very well and can win again. | |||
STAR OF MACEDON (2) did a good job to finish fifth in the Listed Gothic Stakes last start, with the track pattern not playing to his strengths.
The Symons & Laxon-trained colt settled well back before making ground down the outside to finish 2.05 lengths from the winner.
His run two starts ago was also strong. He broke his maiden at Kilmore after covering ground three-wide throughout.
The spacious Flemington circuit and extra distance look suitable.
| 2. Star Of Macedon (5) 57kg32×16 | |||
| Third-up today and placed third-up previously. Resuming won by 0.5 len in a Mdn-Sw at Kilmore on September 28 over 1200m defeating She’s Loaded with 57kg at $1.65. Second-up 6th of 14 in the LR Gothic Stakes at Caulfield on October 17 over 1400m, 2 len behind Milsons Point with 56kg at $5. Can improve again to this trip. | |||
SEMANTICS (11) started a $1.30 favourite on debut at Bendigo and proved too good for her rivals.
The Anthony & Sam Freedman-trained filly shared the lead before pulling clear late over 1000m. She won by 1.25 lengths, with the third horse another two lengths away.
She has since returned to the jump-outs, where she worked well and finished strongly to the line.
Ethan Brown stays aboard, and she should race on speed.
| 11. Semantics (1) 55kg3×1 | |||
| Third race start. Promising on debut sat on the speed and boxed on steadily 3rd of 13 in a 2yo F Hcp at Sandown-Hillside on May 23 over 1000m, on a slow track; 0.7 len behind Divine Dot with 55.5kg at $2.90. Returned from break favourite; won by 1.3 len in a Mdn-Sw at Bendigo on October 4 over 1000m on a rain affected track defeating Keen Observer with 55kg at $1.30. Profiles as an improver, should go well. | |||
TEMPESTI (4) made a strong return from a two-month break in the Group 3 St Leger Stakes at Randwick, his first start for new trainer Gavin Bedggood.
The eight-year-old gelding fought on well behind So You Are to finish just under a length second.
That form reads well, with So You Are now the winner of four consecutive races, including last Wednesday’s Bendigo Cup, and a leading player in the Melbourne Cup later in the day.
Tempesti should be fitter for the run and is suited by the step up in distance. He was beaten by just a neck in the Deane Lester Flemington Cup over this course and distance four starts ago.
| 4. Tempesti (6) 59.5kg03632 | |||
| Racing well recently. Last start 2nd of 10 in the G3 Atc St Leger Stakes at Randwick on October 17 over 2600m, on a slow track; 0.9 len behind So You Are carrying 57.5kg at $31. The run before that 3rd of 10 in a Hcp at Sandown-Hillside on August 22 over 2400m, on heavy track; 3.5 len behind Nearco Frod with 54kg at $12. Brings the class form and will be hard to beat. | |||
ST LAWRENCE (5) has been in excellent form and is looking to make it three wins in a row.
The Gavin Bedggood-trained gelding returns from South Australia after saving ground on the turn and narrowly holding on to win the Murray Bridge Cup.
He impressed over 1700m here two starts ago. Despite a wide barrier, he quickly found a handy position before driving clear in the straight to win by two lengths.
James McDonald has been booked for the ride, which is a notable booking.
| 5. St Lawrence (8) 56kg56211 | |||
| Racing well recently. Comes off a 31 day let-up. Most recently favourite; ran on from midfield and won by a nose in the LR Murray Bridge Gold Cup on October 3 over 1600m in soft going defeating Sir Kingsford carrying 57.5kg at $3.80. Before that favourite; won by 2 len in a Hcp at this track on September 12 over 1700m defeating Ziryab with 54kg at $21. Flying, should go close again with McDonald booked. | |||
POINT OF LAW (20) has me thinking of Media Puzzle in 2002 and Americain in 2010. Both won the Geelong Cup before going on to take out the Group 1 Melbourne Cup, and Point Of Law can follow suit.
He is a lightly raced stayer who has displayed plenty of talent in the United Kingdom. His first start for Ciaron Maher was particularly impressive.
The son of Frankel crossed from the outside barrier to take a position on a hot speed in the Geelong Cup. The leader, The Euphrates, capitulated, but Point Of Law kept going to win by half a length.
Formerly owned by King Charles III, he broke his maiden at Newbury four starts ago. He then made up ground from the back of the field to finish 1.6 lengths fourth in the Group 2 Queen’s Vase at Royal Ascot.
His final start before coming to Australia further highlighted his ability. He proved too strong over 2615m to win the Group 3 Bahrain Trophy Stakes at Newmarket.
Maher used those races to identify current Group 1-winning stable stars Birdman and Royal Supremacy. Birdman finished third in the Queen’s Vase, while Royal Supremacy ran second in the Bahrain Trophy.
He received a 2kg penalty for winning at Geelong but will still carry just 53kg, with Ethan Brown in the saddle.
It takes a leap of faith to back a horse having just his sixth start, but Point Of Law gives the impression he has something special.
| 20. Point Of Law (9) 53kg141×1 | |||
| Second-up. First-up after three months won by 0.5 len in the G3 Geelong Cup on October 21 over 2400m defeating Small Fry carrying 55kg at $6. Previously second-up won by 1.3 len in a 3yo Mdn Sw at Newbury on May 15 over 2011m defeating Hatteen with 60.5kg at $1.60. Impossible to knock and looks the one again. Huge win at local debut in fast time, lightly raced and if he brings that form he’ll go close again. | |||
RANARSSON (5) has made an ideal start to his career, winning his first two races.
The Team Hayes-trained colt opened his account over 1200m at Cranbourne. He led before putting the race away with a 4.75-length victory.
He stepped up to this distance last start and delivered another dominant front-running win, scoring by 3.25 lengths.
This is a much tougher assignment, but he has looked a quality prospect so far and carries just 54.5kg.
| 5. Ranarsson (6) 54kg11 | |||
| Looking to keep his unbeaten record intact. On debut, favourite; scored a big 5 len win in a 3yo Mdn-Sw at Cranbourne on September 25 over 1200m defeating Kotahitanga with 58kg at $11. Last start favourite; won by 3.5 len in a Bm62 at Cranbourne on October 16 over 1400m defeating The Volta carrying 58.5kg at $1.50. Been dominant in both starts in fast time, suspect he might be very good. | |||
SHADHAVAR (2) has seven wins from 18 starts and appears very well treated under the set-weight conditions.
The Tom Dabernig-trained mare comes into the race after a commanding Caulfield win over 1400m, putting 2.7 lengths on her rivals.
She is fully fit and has won her only previous fifth-up start, which came over this distance at Caulfield just over a year ago.
Flemington is an unknown, as she has never raced here. However, she handles all conditions and should be able to make her own luck from a good draw.
Craig Williams knows her well and should give her a strong chance.
| 2. Shadhavar (2) 58kgx1421 | |||
| Form hard to fault. Most recently won by 2.75 len in the G2 Tristarc Stakes at Caulfield on October 17 over 1400m defeating Terilee carrying 56kg at $3.60. Before that 2nd of 13 in a Hcp at Murray Bridge on October 3 over 1200m, on a slow track; 0.7 len behind The Stalker with 59.5kg at $4. Dominant latest and will be very hard to catch again. | |||
BUCCLEUCH (1) boasts a strong winning record, with six victories from 11 starts.
The Patrick Payne-trained gelding won his first two runs this preparation. His wide third-up effort can be forgiven.
He bounced back last start over 1400m at Caulfield, coming from behind to win with something in reserve.
There looks to be solid speed, which should allow Billy Egan to settle just off the pace.
| 1. Buccleuch (4) 60.5kgx1171 | |||
| Last start ran on from midfield and won by 0.8 len in a Bm84 at Caulfield on October 14 over 1440m defeating Fiorenot with 61kg at $3.90. The race before that 7th of 9 in the LR Testa Rossa Stakes at Caulfield on September 27 over 1440m, 2.5 len behind Regal Zeus carrying 57kg at $2.30. Flying and finds another ideal race. | |||