It is do or die for the Warriors this week as they look to bounce back from their shock loss to the Dolphins but first it is the Roosters and Sharks in a finals game for the fourth time since 2018.
The Sydney Roosters go in heavily favoured in the opening game of the second week of the NRL finals but that line does look to be inflated. The Chooks won both games this season by double digits but were travelling better in both and this is not a great spot for Trent Robinson’s team with the Roosters covering at just 42% against Top 8 teams while they are 17-22 against the number when favoured by more than a converted try. The Sharks have covered four of their last five getting at least 6.5 points while they are 16-7 against the spread as an underdog in night games. With Cronulla 11-6 against the spread off conceding 16 or fewer and having covered three of four at Allianz, the Sharks are an excellent bet getting 7.5 points while they are great value to win the game. The Roosters concede 40% of tries down their right edge so looking to Cronulla left-side players. Teig Wilton has scored more tries this season than in any other and he has crossed in two of his last five against the Roosters. Ronaldo Mulitalo has nine tries in 10 games against the Roosters and gets a plus-matchup against defensive liability Mark Nawaqanitawase.
Tips
Best: Cronulla +7.5 ($1.90)
Next: Cronulla Win ($3.00)
Tryscorer: Teig Wilton ($26 First, $4.75 Anytime)
SGM: Teig Wilton Try/Ronaldo Mulitalo Try ($9.16)
Eden Park hosts its first NRL game in over a decade with the venue sold out for the Warriors-Knights, New Zealand playing a week earlier than they would have expected or liked. New Zealand’s shock loss last week combined with the conservative attitude sets up well for the under. Night games have gone under at nearly 67% this season and this is a strong under spot for both sides. The under is 12-4 when the Warriors are favoured by at least a try while the under has hit in 16 of 25 Warriors games this year. The under is also 23-15 when the Knights play an evening match while it is 30-23 when they are off scoring 20 or fewer. Points are going to be at a premium in this game. The Knights struggle defensively on their left edge, where 44% of tries comes through. That sets up nicely for aerial threat Jacob Laban, who has eight tries this year including five in his last seven games. He scored a double when these teams last met. Greg Marzhew has 24 tries in 24 games this year and loves playing the Warriors with nine tries in nine games.
Tips
Best: Under 44.5 ($1.90)
Next: Neither Team 20+ Points ($5.00)
Tryscorer: Jacob Laban ($16 First, $3.15 Anytime)
SGM: Jacob Laban Try/Greg Marzhew Try ($5.58)
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