A week ago there would have been a perception that the men’s draw was void of any legitimate stars. That has taken a turn for the better as the field includes the two men who made the biggest splash at the Brisbane International last week – Opelka and Mpetshi Perricard.
They join top seed Ben Shelton, the enigmatic Gael Monfils and two-time runner-up here Cameron Norrie.
Made a huge statement when he beat Nick Kyrgios in the opening round of the Brisbane International, but it didn’t stop there. Backed it up with victories against Tiafoe and Mensik before losing to Opelka in the semi finals. He dropped serve once in the entire tournament (9 sets played) and is growing in confidence with every match. The surface/conditions are ideal for his game, and he is in the bottom half of the draw which looks the easier path. Fancy him to get the better of Monfils if they meet in the 2nd Round who is now 38 years old. Beat Shelton to claim the title in Basel to end last year and is ready to take his game to another level.
Is almost the forgotten American in the draw with Shelton and Opelka attracting most of the media hype. The 20-year-old had an excellent first full season on tour in 2024 making finals in Newport and Winston-Salem. Registered wins over a host of big names including Tsitsipas, Fritz, De Minaur and Hurkacz. Has a big game and plays an aggressive brand of tennis that includes venturing forward where possible. Like his chances of making it through to the final four and beyond.
Must respect the highest-ranked player in the draw – especially after the season that he has. Made multiple finals last year but there is a reason that he is not the best bet, and it is due to a string of losses against players whose biggest weapon is a booming serve. That list includes Mpetshi Perricard (twice), Bublik and Popyrin. May have to go through Opelka, Struff and the Frenchman that beat him twice last year so we will be betting around him.
Cameron Norrie
May be playing under the Great Britain flag but is South African born and spent the bulk of his youth growing up in Auckland. A two-time finalist here, Norrie will have the support of the crowd in every one of his matches. It has helped him in the past, but he is coming off the worst season in his career since 2020. Contested 13 ATP Tour Finals through 2021-23 and climbed into the top 10 but made just the one final last year at the Moselle Open and lost to Benjamin Bonzi. Not playing at the level required to win five matches and the title.
Gael Monfils
Will entertain the crowds and send them into a frenzy with his swagger but it has come at a price throughout his career. Now 38, the veteran is finding I difficult to put a string of wins together and finds himself in a very difficult section of the draw. His best results have come on super-fast indoor courts and he will not be getting those conditions here with windy conditions forecast throughout the week.
Reilly Opelka
Heads to Auckland in the best form of any player in the draw after beating Djokovic and Mpetshi Perricard en-route to the final of the Brisbane International. A deep run in Brisbane coupled with travel and a short turnaround will be his downfall here. At 6 foot 11, having to play 10+ matches in the span of two weeks is too much for Opelka and something he has not been capable of doing in the past.
Alejandro Tabilo
May be the second seed on the back of his ranking but we won’t be buying into that. Collected the bulk of his points in three tournaments – a semi final run at the Rome Masters and title victories in Mallorca and here. Won the ASB Classic a year ago after coming through qualifiers but didn’t beat any noteworthy names and was handed a walkover after Norrie withdrew from their quarter final clash. Lost 13 of his last 17 competitive matches and will drop significantly in the rankings this season.
Argentines (Baez and Cerundolo)
The Argentinians are well known for the exploits on clay and the duo of Cerundolo and Baez are no exception. Despite having commendable results on hard courts, their title wins have almost exclusively been limited to the red dirt. Cerundolo has contested 5 finals at ATP Tour level (4 on clay, 1 on grass) while Baez has been in 8 finals (7 on clay, 1 on hard courts). Happy to put a line though both with respect to winning the title.
Best
Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard
Value
Alex Michelsen