The Super Bowl is upon us and what an unlikely matchup we have with pre-season $81 shot New England playing pre-season $61 shot Seattle in a clash that has punters and fans alike salivating.
Line
New England +4.5 ($1.94): The Super Bowl has become a game to get around the underdog and with Sam Darnold listed as the most unlikely 4.5-point favourite in Super Bowl history, the Pats are an elite bet getting over a field goal. Outsiders have covered five straight Super Bowls and 15 of the last 22. The Pats have been great on the road this year, covering seven of nine, while Mike Vrabel is 17-10 against the spread against teams who win 66% of their games. Underdogs are 5-2 against the spread in playoff games under Shawn Smith. This is a great spot for the Pats too with teams with a higher average margin of victory like Seattle 3-19 against the number in the last 22 Super Bowls while teams off a road game against teams off a home game 8-1 against the spread. Chips in the Pats.
Total
Over 45.5 ($1.90): The over has hit in the last three Super Bowls and given how much the Seattle defence was exposed by the Rams a fourth straight over looks to be in the offing. This i the lowest total in a Super Bowl since 2016 when Denver and Carolina went well under on a total of 43.5. Since 2001 the Super Bowl total has been 46 or lower six times. The over is 5-1. Drake Maye has been a big over quarterback, going 20-9 to the over, while the over is on a 29-17 run at Levi’s Stadium.
Touchdown
Hunter Henry ($13 First, $3.25 Anytime): Hunter Henry is Drake Maye’s favourite option through the air when the Pats are close to the endzone. Henry has three touchdowns in seven games since the Pats bye. He is always on the field with his lowest snap count this season 65%, topping 85% seven times. He has 28 targets since the bye. No Pats receiver is within 10 redzone touches of Henry.
Same Game Multi
Kenneth Walker 20+ Receiving Yards/Rhamondre Stevenson Over 49.5 Rush Yards/Drake Maye Over 37.5 Rush Yards ($5.90): Kenneth Walker has been a feature in the passing game over the backend of the season with 20-plus receiving yards in his last three. Rhamondre Stevenson has gone for at least 47 rush yards in all seven games since the bye. Drake Maye has run the ball at least 10 times in three of his last six with 40-plus rush yards in four of seven post-bye.
Player Prop
Mack Hollins 50+ Receiving Yards ($3.70): Mack Hollins is one of the most underrated receivers in the NFL and he was sensational in the snow in Denver with some big catches. He is big and physical and that is what is needed to win against the Seattle secondary. Hollins has topped 50 yards in his last two games and reached 49 in six of his last 10.