The World Cup final most had been anticipating has come to be and what a belter it looks as traditional heavyweights Australia and New Zealand square off at Suncorp Stadium.
The fabled Suncorp Stadium hosts the World Cup final for the third time with Australia and New Zealand set to meet in a World Cup decider for the fifth time in the last nine World Cups but the first since 2013.
While New Zealand have certainly played a more pleasing brand of football this tournament and have played closer to expectations, Australia are the best team in the world with a history of winning this tournament and look an utterly astonishing price.
Australia starts the final around the $1.70 quote. They went into this tournament around that mark and were half that quote just a month out. New Zealand are significantly shorter than their pre-tournament odds despite losing the opener to Australia. From a pure price point of view, the odds in this match make no sense with Australia being value across the board from head-to-head to 13-plus.
There is no question that New Zealand have looked more impressive in beating up on the minnows this tournament. They sizzled against Fiji and Cook Islands while Australia struggled, particularly against the Bati. It is hard to go past the fact that the Kiwis did, in fact, lose to the Kangaroos. Australia were also certainly more impressive in their comfortable semi-final win. There is a strong narrative push for New Zealand, particularly around the stunning return of Kalyn Ponga, but that has just enhanced the price for the Kangaroos.
Australia have certainly worked to peak at World Cups. They have won 10 of the last 12 World Cups and have lost just one World Cup game since 1995.
The head-to-head record gives the Kiwis little solace either. Australia have won 10 of the last 12 and have won three of the four World Cup finals these teams have met in.
Australia have won 33 of their last 36 Tests with eight of their last 10 wins being by double digits.
One stat that will give hope to New Zealand is that they have won four of the last five Tests against Australia at Suncorp including their most famous win in any sport: the 2008 World Cup final.
Australia have too much talent and the weight of too much history not to be the bet here.
Jordan Preston has had a memorable debut World Cup campaign. He has played in all four matches, scoring a try in his last three. He was in the middle of everything against Samoa as arguably Australia’s best.
Reece Walsh has nine tries in his six Tests, crossing for five tries in three games this World Cup.
Tips
Best: Australia -2.5 ($1.90)
Next: Australia 13+ ($3.50)
Tryscorer: Jacob Preston ($21 First, $3.90 Anytime)
SGM: Jacob Preston Try/Reece Walsh Try ($7.87