NRL Tips & Preview | Round 14

Manly and South Sydney make for a highly compelling matchup to open Round 14 with the Sea Eagles getting back Origin duo Haumole Olakau’atu and Tolutau Koula while the Bunnies welcome back David Fifita, Campbell Graham and Brandon Smith though notably will be without Latrell Mitchell. The tide has been turning in this matchup of late with Manly winning two of the last three and covering three of the last four. With a Top 4 berth likely on the line, one would imagine they will be up for this and they have covered seven of nine under Kieran Foran. The Sea Eagles have covered their last three against Top 8 teams while they bounce back well with a 25-15 cover record off a defeat. Souths are turning into a little bit of Cronulla – a team that beats up on bad teams but struggles against the best – going 17-28 against the spread when playing Top 8 opposition. Souths win at just 41% when Latrell Mitchell is out too. Manly look a confident bet. Clayton Faulalo has scored a try in each of his three games at fullback and he now has 11 tries in 19 games in the top grade. Tolutau Koula has 22 tries in 32 games across the last two seasons. Alex Johnston has crossed in every match he has played in this season.

Sea Eagles v Rabbitohs Tips

Best: Manly -4.5 ($1.98)
Next: Manly 13+ ($3.00)
Tryscorer: Clayton Faulalo ($12 First, $2.20 Anytime)
SGM: Clayton Faulalo Try/Tolutau Koula Try/Alex Johnston Try ($6.75)

Is Melbourne’s recent return to form the real deal or just a mirage? The answer is probably somewhere in the middle but at first look the weaknesses remain at the Storm and laying over a try against a quality team like Newcastle seems too much. The Knights are not pretenders. They have scored at least 28 in all six games Kalyn Ponga has played in this season while conceding more than 22 just once. The Knights are an outstanding 15-6 against the spread against bottom five teams while they are 24-16 against the number off a win. In their last 21 interstate games, they have covered 13. The Storm are 2-9 against the spread against Top 8 teams while they have covered just five of 17 night games. The plus here looks very generous. Greg Marzhew is in incredible tryscoring form with 10 tries in his last four matches. Dylan Lucas comes off a double and hits a worrying Storm defensive edge. Fletcher Hunt is a pure tryscorer with 12 tries in 22 NRL appearances.

Storm v Knights Tips

Best: Newcastle +4.5 ($1.83)
Next: Newcastle Win ($2.35)
Tryscorer: Greg Marzhew ($8.75 First, $1.73 Anytime)
SGM: Greg Marzhew Try/Dylan Lucas Try/Fletcher Hunt Try ($13.74)

Canberra have surprisingly had the wood on the Sydney Roosters of late and given how poor the Roosters have been in their last two games, can get the job done again as a home underdog. The Raiders have won and covered four of the last five against the Chooks with a 9-5 cover record in their last 14. Canberra have covered their last five as a home underdog while they have covered 28 of 45 as an outsider. The Green Machine have tended to play quality teams well too with an 11-7 cover record against Top 8 teams. The Roosters have been kept to 12 or fewer in their last two and are just playing tired and without a lot of respect for either ball or opposition. The Raiders are the play in this one. Zac Hosking will be running at defensive liability Sam Walker. He has six tries in 31 games across the last two seasons. Xavier Savage has scored in three of his four games against the Roosters. Hugo Savala has five tries in his last six games.

Raiders v Roosters Tips

Best: Canberra +2.5 ($1.90)
Next: Total Points 61+ ($4.00)
Tryscorer: Zac Hosking Try ($31 First, $4.80 Anytime)
SGM: Zac Hosking Try/Xavier Savage Try/Hugo Savala Try ($22.14)

The Cowboys and the Dolphins both have reputations as being high-octane with plenty of points in them and that has certainly played out of late when the two Queensland outfits have met. These sides have clashed six times and averaged a remarkable 55 points per game. Three of the last four have hit 60. The over is 5-1. Both teams happen to be in over spots. The over is 21-16 when the Cowboys are an underdog and has hit in eight of 10 when they are a home underdog. The over is also 14-7 when the Dolphins are favoured by at least four and is 31-23 when the Dolphins are off conceding 20-plus. We have a huge total but it does not look big enough. Kodi Nikorima has nine tries in his last 29 games with the Dolphins shape lending itself to Nikorima scores. Jack Bostock has four tries in four games since returning from injury. Selwyn Cobbo has been back to his best with five tries in five games.

Cowboys v Dolphins Tips

Best: Over 55.5 ($1.90)
Next: Dolphins 41+ Points ($4.80)
Tryscorer: Kodi Nikorima Try ($23 First, $3.70 Anytime)
SGM: Kodi Nikorima Try/Jack Bostock Try/Selwyn Cobbo Try ($11.67)

Brisbane are in a diabolical rut of form at the moment, so bad that star No.6 Ezra Mam has been dropped to the bench for Thomas Duffy. Brisbane have lost their last four and conceded at least 30 in each, the cherry on top losing to the Dragons after St George Illawarra had dropped 17 straight games. The Titans are only one slot higher on the ladder than the Dragons and pose another trap threat to Michael Maguire’s team. Teams outside the eight favoured by eight or more cover at just 38% and that drops to 34% when they are off a loss. The Titans rank in the best eight defensive teams while they have covered nine of 15 off conceding 16 or fewer. They are 21-16 against the spread getting at least eight points. The Titans can win this. The under is 14-7 when the Broncos are off conceding 30 or more while it is 20-11 in Titans night games. Beau Fermor has remarkably not scored this year but has been a double digit tryscorer in two of his last three seasons in the NRL. Josiah Karapani has 15 tries in 24 games across the last two seasons.

Broncos v Titans Tips

Best: Gold Coast +8.5 ($1.90)
Next: Gold Coast Win ($2.90)
Tryscorer: Beau Fermor Try ($26 First, $4.10 Anytime)
SGM: Under 51.5/Beau Fermor Try/Josiah Karapani Try ($19.16)

Penrith have won four premierships in the last five seasons while the Wests Tigers have three wooden spoons over that half-decade period but the Tigers have tended to play the Panthers very well. The Tigers have covered five of their last seven against Penrith while three of the four games at CommBank have been decided by seven points or fewer. This could not be a better spot for the Tigers with home underdogs of 12.5 or more the last four seasons 25-13 against the spread. The Tigers have been in this spot seven times – they have covered six of them. Benji Marshall’s team have covered seven of 10 at CommBank while they are 18-9 against the spread off conceding 20 or fewer. Penrith are the team to beat but this is too many points. The under has remarkably hit in 14 straight Tigers-Panthers games. Jeral Skelton is an elite finisher with 14 tries in 20 games since moving to the Tigers. Casey McLean is pushing for an Origin start and now has 25 tries in 41 NRL games.

Wests Tigers v Panthers Tips

Best: Wests Tigers +12.5 ($1.90)
Next: Total Points 31-40 ($4.60)
Tryscorer: Jeral Skelton ($12.50 First, $2.30 Anytime)
SGM: Under 50.5/Jeral Skelton Try/Casey McLean Try ($11.28)

St George Illawarra have been up-and-about all week after posting the upset of the season in Brisbane last week, rolling the defending premiers at Suncorp as 20-point outsiders, ending a long winless streak and posting their first win of the season. With the pressure now off, the Dragons are likely to be sighing with relief this week and will find it much harder to get up, even for rivals Cronulla. The Sharks have won 12 of the last 14 against the Dragons including the last five at Shark Park. Teams playing a bottom two team off a win cover at 68% the last four years. The Sharks are 23-13 against the spread in their last 36 at Shark Park while they are 14-8 against the number playing teams ranked 13th or worse on the ladder. The Dragons have covered just two of their last nine against Top 8 opposition. The Sharks should win this and win in a canter. Braydon Trindall is a highly underappreciated tryscorer with 25 tries in his last 57 games. Teig Wilton has been a tryscoring machine with six tries in nine appearances. Sam Stonestreet has 19 tries in 27 games, a very good strikerate.

Sharks v Dragons Tips

Best: Cronulla -11.5 ($1.90)
Next: Cronulla 41+ ($3.15)
Tryscorer: Braydon Trindall ($12.50 First, $2.15 Anytime)
SGM: Braydon Trindall Try/Teig Wilton Try/Sam Stonestreet Try ($8.67)

Canterbury and Parramatta are well out of the finals reckoning at present but their games are always fierce with this rivalry running incredibly deep. Since 2008 these teams have averaged 30 points per game, an indicator of how much this game means to both teams and we should see no different here. Both teams have struggled defensively but should find for this one. The under is 27-10 since 2008, hitting in eight of the last 10. When two bottom five teams play, the under hits at 63%. The under is 9-5 when the Bulldogs play a bottom five opponent and 10-7 when the Eels play a bottom five outfit. This total is huge for two teams who can in the bottom six in scoring. Lachlan Galvin has five tries in his last nine games. Jacob Kiraz is riding a four-game tryscoring streak.

Bulldogs v Eels Tips

Best: Under 50.5 ($1.90)
Next: Under 42.5 ($2.80)
Tryscorer: Lachlan Galvin Try ($17 First, $2.80 Anytime)
SGM: Lachlan Galvin Try/Jacob Kiraz Try ($5.56)