Premier League Tips & Preview: Matchweek 19

Preview

Nottingham Forest put up a brave fight against Man City last week and were less than 10 minutes from claiming an unlikely draw. A Rayan Cherki strike in the 83rd minute prevented that from occurring and they now host an Everton side that they have struggled against in the past. The Toffees are coming off a 0-0 draw away to Burnley and have now gone three league games without scoring a goal.

Stats That Matter

Everton’s recent success in this series is no joke. They did the double over Forest last season (1-0 and 3-0) and have won 4 of the last 5 meetings with a clean sheet in all four victories. Both teams to score is 0-5 in the last 5 clashes between these sides and has hit in only 2 of Everton’s last 9 league games. Under 2.5 goals is 6-0 in the Toffees last 6 away games with 1 or fewer goals in 4 of their previous 4 road fixtures. Everton have won 7 of their last 15 away games with a healthy return of 135% profit on turnover. When these teams fail it is generally due to a lack of execution in attack. Forest have 8 home losses in the last year and have been held to nil in 7 of those games. Similarly, Everton have been held to nil in 6 of their 7 away losses during that same period.

Prediction

With an average of only 1.8 goals per game in their away fixtures this season, Under 2.5 goals is a staple play in Everton away matches. It has been the winning play in 4 of the last 5 meetings in this series and is 7-2 in Everton’s last 9 games leading in. History suggests only one team will be finding the back of the net in what will be a dour contest.

Tips

Best Bet: Under 2.5 goals ($1.65)
Value: Everton WIN, Both Teams To Score – NO ($5.06)

Preview

It took more than a year but against Newcastle, Reuben Amorim finally changed his formation to a back four. The decision translated to a 1-0 win over Newcastle and only their second clean sheet of the season! Wolves trailed Liverpool 2-0 at Anfield but won the second half in a 2-1 loss. The result means they have now rewritten the record books. Their streak of 18 games without a win is the longest winless start to a season ever in the Premier League.

Stats That Matter

Wolves may be on track to having the lowest points total in Premier League history but many of their recent performances have been commendable. They have found the back of the net in 3 of their last 4 losses and done so against quality opposition (Arsenal, Liverpool and Man Utd). They were picked apart 4-1 by the Red Devils in the most recent clash in this series (3 weeks ago) but that marked only the 2nd time in the last 9 meetings that both teams found the back of the net. Under 2.5 goals is 7-0 in the last 7 league clashes between them at Old Trafford with 5 of the last 6 battles at this ground producing no more than a single goal.

Prediction

After holding Newcastle to nil with a back four one would have to assume that Amorim sticks with this formation when they host Wolves. The Red Devils played with a greater element of control with four across the back and a repeat would see this match play out very differently to their recent battle less than a month ago. Can see Man Utd keeping a second clean sheet in as many games but am not expecting them to crush Wolves as the visitors have conceded more than two goals in only 1 of their last 7 games.

Tips

Best Bet: Man Utd WIN, Both Teams To Score – NO ($2.16)
Value: Man Utd WIN/Under 2.5 goals ($3.90)

Preview

Burnley’s 0-0 draw against Everton was the second time in as many games that they shared the spoils, but they will need to end a 9 game winless run sooner rather than later if they are to climb out of the drop zone. Newcastle failed to find the back of the net in a 1-0 defeat at Old Trafford and despite being only 6 points off 5th place, are currently 15th on the ladder.

Stats That Matter

This matchup has been a great source of points for Newcastle. They have won the last 7 meetings including the last three played at Turf Moor. The Magpies have averaged 2.3 team goals per game across those matches and have managed to win all 7 despite conceding a goal in five of those clashes. Newcastle’s poor away form is a major reason for their struggles this season. They have won only 4 of their last 10 as an away favourite and have scored a total of only 7 goals in 9 away games played with the duo of Wolves and Sunderland the only teams with fewer away goals this season. The Magpies have failed to find the back of the net in 8 of their last 18 away games – a very concerning statistic.

Prediction

Newcastle have done nothing to warrant being this short in the market. Last week they became only the second team to be held scoreless by Man Utd this season and have struggled on the road for an extended period. Burnley may have gone 5 games at home without a win but three of those fixtures were against Arsenal, Chelsea and Crystal Palace. Under 2.5 goals is 8-1 in their 9 home games played this season and a low scoring game here would increase their chances of causing an upset.

Tips

Best Bet: Under 2.5 goals ($1.95)
Value: Burnley WIN/Under 2.5 goals ($9.00)

Preview

Chelsea were installed as firm favourites at home to Villa last time out but were outplayed in the second half resulting in a 2-1 loss. A single win from their last 6 games has seen them slide to 5th and there are now a handful of teams within a single win of them (3 points). Meanwhile, Bournemouth are languishing in 15th following a 4-1 loss away to Brentford and with a battle against Arsenal in just a matter of days, they will take anything they can get.

Stats That Matter

A record of 6 wins and 2 draws from their last 10 games following a loss suggests that Chelsea will bounce back here. At some point during this match there will be 6 games on at the same time but anyone who wishes to see goals galore should make this match a priority. The Over is 7-0 in Bournemouth’s last 7 away games and has hit in 17 of their previous 19 away league fixtures. In fact, there have been 4+ total match goals in all 7 of those games and an average of 5.14 goals per game. Bournemouth have claimed at least a point in 7 of their last 13 games as an away underdog and have recorded 2 wins and a draw from their last 6 Premier League clashes against Chelsea at Samford Bridge.

Prediction

The 4-1 loss away to Brentford last week is not a true indicator of the danger that Bournemouth possesses. They won the possession battle (51% possession) and recorded 20 shots (10 on goal) compared to 15 for the hosts. The Cherries have failed to score in only 2 of their 18 away games played in the last year and as has been the case throughout the season, they are great value to bag multiple goals.

Tips

Best Bet: Both Teams To Score/Over 2.5 goals ($1.91)
Value: Bournemouth Over 2.5 goals ($8.00)

Preview

The Hammers failed to score in a 1-0 loss away to Fulham but there was some good news as the five teams directly above them on the ladder combined for a single point in Gameweek 18. It means they have not fallen further adrift of safety, but times are starting to get desperate. Brighton put up a great fight away to Arsenal but came up short 2-1. The two teams met less than a month ago at Amex Stadium where they played out a 1-1 draw.

Stats That Matter

The 1-1 draw earlier this month means that these two sides have now shared the points in 3 of the last 4 meetings and 7 of the last 12! Under 2.5 goals has held on in 67% of those battles but there is a counter to that as there have been 3+ total match goals in 8 of Brighton’s last 10 league games following a loss. West Ham have registered a single clean sheet at home in the last year meaning they will have to find a goal from somewhere if they are to avoid defeat. Sunderland, Liverpool and Crystal Palace are the only teams who have kept a clean sheet against Brighton this season and the Hammers are not on the same level as these sides.

Prediction

Brighton may be winless in their last 5 games but four of their opponents in that stretch are currently in the top 7 of the standings (Arsenal, Liverpool, Aston Villa and Sunderland). A points differential of -4 across those games highlights that they have been competitive in every contest and that will continue here. They key for the visitors lies in their ability to convert opportunities – something they have not done well this season. A clash with the Hammers provides the perfect platform for breaking the shackles and posting a dominant win.

Tips

Best Bet: Brighton WIN ($2.20)
Value: Brighton Over 2.5 goals ($4.20)

Preview

Arsenal maintained their lead at the top of the standings with a 2-1 win over Brighton. It was their third consecutive league win with all three victories coming by a single goal margin. Their place at the helm of the EPL ladder is in jeopardy this week as Aston Villa can join them on 42 points with an upset win. Villa double chance was our best bet for Gameweek 18 but they went one better and extended their win streak to 8 games with an impressive 2-1 win. They got the better of Arsenal 2-1 at Villa Park earlier this month and will not be playing for a draw when they travel to Emirates Stadium.

Stats That Matter

Most teams find it difficult to win when they concede and cannot find a way to overcome a deficit. That is not Aston Villa at present as they have consistently done both. They have conceded at least once in each of their last 5 games but managed to claim maximum points on each occasion. Over 2.5 goals is 4-0 in their last 4 away games and they have claimed at least a point in 8 of their last 11 away league games. The Gunners have won their last 6 Premier League fixtures at home but have not been as clinical in defence with only 2 clean sheets in their last 8 games. Aston Villa have 3 wins and a draw in the last 5 meetings in this series and have scored multiple goals in their last two league games against Arsenal at Emirates Stadium.

Prediction

We were somehow able to get better than even money for Aston Villa in the double chance market against Chelsea and a very tasty $5.50 for them to win in a game with more than 2.5 goals. Somehow the disrespect continues with $1.60 on offer for the visitors with a 1.5 goal start!!! Outside of the fact that Arsenal have scraped home in their last 3 wins, Aston Villa outplayed them in the most recent meeting. The two sides have a very different mentality with Arsenal opting to play a conservative/defensive style while Villa look to place their opposition under pressure by getting the ball to their wide players early and in space. Aston Villa +1.5 is the best bet of the round, and the visitors are a genuine chance of causing an upset. If they have the lead midway through the second half, Arsenal will be forced to take risks at the back – something that they have not been accustomed to this season. It could see Villa pick them off on the counter multiple times.

Tips

Best Bet: Aston Villa +1.5 ($1.60)
Value: Aston Villa WIN, Aston Villa Over 2.5 goals ($23.86)

Preview

Liverpool extended their unbeaten run to 6 games with a 2-1 win over Wolves and are suddenly in the top 4. They may have taken the three points on offer but as their manager (Arne Slot) noted, Liverpool will need to improve defensively at set pieces. They managed to hold on against Wolves but may not be as lucky against Leeds who have gone 5 games without a loss. During that stretch, Leeds have taken points off Chelsea, Crystal Palace, Sunderland and Liverpool.

Stats That Matter

Their 3-3 draw at Elland Road in early December was one of the games of the season and Leeds have elevated their game to another level since. The most impressive aspect of their current unbeaten streak is that all five games have come against teams in the top half. Moreover, their two defeats prior to that came by a single goal margin against Man City and Aston Villa – the two form teams in the Premier League. Both teams to score has hit in each of Leeds last 8 games and is 4-1 in the Reds last 5. The biggest concern for Leeds is their performances in this spot with a single point earned in 6 attempts as an away underdog this season.

Prediction

After seeing Wolves find the back of the net against them and place them under significant pressure in the closing stages, it is hard to see Liverpool maintaining a clean sheet here. Leeds have scored at least once in 8 straight league games and have tallied 14 goals in their last 6 league matches leading into this one. Taking both teams to score and fancy Leeds to find the back of the net multiple times.

Tips

Best Bet: Both Teams To Score – YES ($1.85)
Value: Leeds Over 1.5 goals ($3.60)

Preview

The goals have dried up for Crystal Palace and with their defence unable to hold out the opposition, they crashed to a third straight loss. The 1-0 loss to Spurs marked their 3rd consecutive loss at Selhurst Park and they could not be hosting Fulham at a worse time. The Cottagers extended their win streak to three games with the 1-0 victory against West Ham their third away victory in as many attempts.

Stats That Matter

Crystal Palace’s last win came against Fulham at Craven Cottage in early December. They have won the last two meetings in this series, but this has been a matchup when playing at home is a disadvantage. The away team is undefeated in the last 9 meetings in a stretch which includes two Fulham wins at Selhurst Park. Fulham won the corresponding fixture last season 2-0 and are undefeated in their last four trips to this ground (2 wins and two 0-0 draws). Most incredibly, Fulham have maintained a clean sheet in their last four league games against Crystal Palace at Selhurst Park with Under 2.5 goals holding in 4 of the last 5 meetings overall. There have been no more than two goals in 67% of Palace games following a loss in the last year.

Prediction

It is difficult to ignore Fulham’s incredible recent record at Selhurst Park – especially the clean sheets. Combined with the poor recent form of Crystal Palace and the home side are being grossly overvalued by the market. Crystal Palace have a terrible record in these circumstances with just 5 wins from their last 15 games as a home favourite. Fulham double chance is the top selection with the visitors a genuine chance of keeping a clean sheet for a 5th consecutive game at this ground.

Tips

Best Bet: Fulham Double Chance ($1.67)
Value: Fulham WIN, Both Teams To Score – NO ($5.10)

Preview

With Arsenal and Aston Villa facing off in Gameweek 19, this is a crucial three points for Man City. They extended their win streak to 6 games with a 2-1 win away to Nottingham Forest but were not as convincing as they had been in previous matches. Sunderland were held to a 1-1 draw at home to Leeds but despite having won only 2 of their last 6, a series of draws have helped them remain within striking distance of the top 4.

Stats That Matter

Their most recent meeting came less than a month ago at Etihad Stadium with Man City posting a commanding 3-0 win. Pushing the tempo has been a huge part of City’s recent success with Over 2.5 goals hitting in each of their last 9 games. Sunderland would prefer a low scoring contest with very few opportunities and have shown that they can do this when at home to the top teams in the league. They are undefeated at home this season and have registered 4 wins and 4 draws in their 8 previous games as a home underdog. That includes a recent win over Newcastle and a 2-2 draw against league leaders Arsenal. City have not been as dominant on the road with 9 wins in their last 17 away games and one clean sheet in their previous 5 away league matches.

Prediction

This match is another example of one of the big name teams being grossly overvalued. In their last 7 away league matches, Man City have won by a margin of 2 or more goals only once. No team has been able to come away from the Stadium of Light with all three points so far this season, let alone to win by 2+ goals. Sunderland +1.5 is a fantastic option, and the hosts are also a good bet in the double chance market.

Tips

Best Bet: Sunderland +1.5 ($1.62)
Value: Sunderland Double Chance, Both Teams To Score – YES ($3.75)

Preview

Brentford and Spurs both received the best Christmas present possible – a win. Brentford took their chances in a 4-1 win over Bournemouth while for Spurs, a lone goal from Archie Gray was enough to earn them all three points from a trip to Selhurst Park. This is a very important game for both teams as they sit mid-table in a section where 8 teams are separated by a total of only four points.

Stats That Matter

Spurs have dominated this series with wins in each of the last four clashes. That includes wins in the last two by the same scoreline (2-0) and a single loss from their 0 overall clashes. The interesting aspect in this matchup is that both teams must overcome historical hurdles. Spurs have won just 3 of their last 10 games following a win and 4 of their previous 15 as an away underdog. It is a similar story for Brentford who have won only 3 of their last 8 as a home favourite and have managed to maintain a clean sheet in 2 of their 18 home games in the last year.

Prediction

This may come as a shock, but no team has earned more points away from home (17) than Spurs this season. Arsenal and Villa are tied with them on that figure but it is Spurs who have scored more goals with an average of 1.78 goals per away game this season. Combined with an excellent record in this matchup and Brentford’s underperformance as a home favourite in the last year, we will be backing Spurs to cause an upset.

Tips

Best Bet: Tottenham Double Chance ($1.62)
Value: Tottenham WIN ($3.00)