Ellerslie hosts an eight-race card on Saturday, with the track rated a Good4 and the rail out 8m. The forecast for Auckland is clear all weekend, which should see the track race in near perfect order for the duration.
Mitch Davis has been through the form guide and speed maps and has provided his race analysis and betting strategy for each of the eight races at the Ellerslie meeting on Saturday 24 October below:
Chancellor Beel (#2) is a 2yo Savabeel colt on debut for Donna Logan. He’s had the one trial to prepare, which he won nicely under his own steam, coming clear late. He maps to settle back of midfield from the middle draw, where I expect there will be good speed from the McKay pair drawn low, as well as a couple drawn to his outer. Opie Bosson takes the reins for his debut, and you couldn’t ask for a better rider for a 2yo making their raceday debut. In a race of many unknowns (being an early season 2yo race), I wouldn’t be surprised to see him run a cheeky race.
| 2. Chancellor Beel (5) 57kg | |||
| Savabeel colt from Allemande on debut. Recent trial winner at Avondale. Worth considering. | |||
Son Of Sun (#3) got a long way back turning for home last start at Te Rapa and was one of a few who were never a chance at the turn. He did put in some good strides down the straight before just peaking on his run very late, running an 11.1s split between the 400m and 200m. He comes here second-up and looks much better suited stepping out over 2200m this time around. He maps to settle closer this time from the low draw in this smaller field. Should be thereabouts in an even field of stayers.
| 3. Son Of Sun (3) 56.5kg990×0 | |||
| Returned from a layoff last start and was beaten 5 lengths into tenth over 1500m at Te Rapa. Plenty of improvement to come. | |||
Grocer’s Girl (#8) was only run down late by smart 3yo System Of Play here five weeks ago, going down by 0.6L for 2nd after leading as she liked. She maps to settle handy to the speed from a favourable draw again, where she may end up tagging Capital Express, who will likely come across from a wider draw. She has the form around the right horses this prep to suggest she should be taking some beating in this.
| 8. Grocer’s Girl (4) 55.5kg52×42 | |||
| Has ability and is racing well with three minor placings from five starts. Just missed last time out when second over 1400m at this track. Can get off the mark without surprising. | |||
Cosmic Dream (#2) is first-up here, last sighted finishing a close-up 3rd at this track back in June. She has trialled nicely leading into this resuming run, which should have her up to the mark for this. She maps to settle handy to the speed here from the inside gate, which should see her afforded every chance under George Rooke. I’m happy to side with her at the price.
| 2. Cosmic Dream (1) 59kg3333x | |||
| Returns from a lay-off. Placed in a recent Matamata trial. Opened last campaign with a third at Te Rapa over 1200m. Looks all set for a effective return. | |||
Drops Of God (#7) was last sighted at the races winning the Gr.3 Cambridge Breeders’ Stakes by 2.6L at Te Rapa back in April. She resumes with two impressive trials under her belt, and she could hardly have trialled any more impressively, finding the line strongly at both trials without being asked for an effort. She maps to lead from the inside gate in a race that looks to have a genuine tempo engaged. Looks well placed down in the weights carrying just 54kg with Craig Grylls aboard. I’m expecting she will prove very hard to beat, likely on a path to bigger targets this campaign.
| 7. Drops Of God (1) 54kg13x1x | |||
| Resuming from a break. Coming along nicely at home including a placing in her most recent trial at Ellerslie. Raced just once last campaign and scored at Te Rapa over 1200m. Expected to feature. | |||
Crocetti (#2) has had no favours in his three runs this time in, having been caught wide and working without cover on each occasion. That was again the case in the Gr.1 Howden Insurance Mile at Hastings four weeks ago, where he got back and never got into the race after a wide run without cover in a genuinely run race, finishing 8th. I’m hoping Sam McNab is positive early from the better draw and looks to hold a forward spot from the outset. A class horse on his day, he can run a vastly improved race with a better run in transit this time.
| 2. Crocetti (5) 60kg0x068 | |||
| Disappointed last start when a modest eighth, beaten 2.5 lengths, over 1600m in the G1 Horlicks Plate at Hastings. Goes well here with two wins and two minor placings from six starts. Can improve sharply. | |||
Aksil (#6) was held up for clear running for much of the run home at Hastings four weeks ago, but surged through the line once clear to finish 3rd. Now second-up, he should strip fitter and looks suited getting out to 1400m. He maps to settle a touch closer this time around from the better draw, off what should be an even tempo, which should see him afforded every chance. Looks the one to beat in an even field.
| 6. Aksil (3) 57kg160×3 | |||
| Resumed in good fashion last start when third over 1200m at Hastings on September 26, beaten 2 lengths. Should appreciate the extra distance second-up. Sure to make his presence felt. | |||
Young Jackson (#6) got back and made no impression last start at Hastings after being caught four-wide without cover and working throughout, finishing well down the track. He comes here third-up, with senior rider George Rooke taking the reins, which looks a big positive. He maps to settle back in the field from the wide gate in a race that looks to have a genuine tempo engaged, which should set up nicely for him to be finishing off hard late. Improved showing expected.
| 6. Young Jackson (10) 59.5kg55×30 | |||
| In the money at Te Rapa when resuming two runs back then could only manage 11th at Hastings over 1400m four weeks ago. Major player on best form. | |||

