New Plymouth hosts an eight-race card on Friday, with the track rated a Soft5 and the rail out 7m. The forecast is clear for the duration of the card on Friday, therefore the track should remain in good order throughout.
Mitch Davis has been through the form guide and speed maps and has provided his race analysis and betting strategy for each of the eight races at the New Plymouth meeting on Friday 22 October below:
Borrowed Time (#1) heads here off a 4th at Woodville a fortnight ago, beaten 2L, where he made some late ground from midfield without threatening. He has been grinding home over shorter trips, so the rise in distance looks as though it will be right up his alley. Third-up, he should strip fitter again, and maps to settle back of midfield in this small field, where there looks to be a good tempo early before likely becoming moderate mid-race. The small field suits, and he can be finishing over the top of these late in what looks a winnable maiden.
| 1. Borrowed Time (5) J: Kavish Chowdhoory 58.5kg 43354 T: Matt Dixon |
Terrific Guy (#3) was only collared on the line when beaten a nose in 2nd at Woodville a fortnight ago, having skipped along in front over 1600m that day. He maps to lead again here from the handy draw, with much of the early pressure drawn to his outer, which he should be able to hold out. Should that eventuate, Mereana Hudson should be able to run their own race out in front and given this field plenty to chase. He could well give a cheeky sight again at odds if he runs up to that last start effort.
| 3. Terrific Guy (4) J: Mereana Hudson 58.5kg 8062 T: Olivia Duffy |
Chica De Oro (#3) won well at Matamata three weeks ago, sitting just off the speed and proving too strong late once clear. Second-up, she should only be better for that resuming run. She maps to settle handy to the speed again, possibly trailing the likely leader Whatz Done is Done throughout from her low draw. Her last start maiden win didn’t rate overly strong, but with natural improvement expected she should take plenty of beating.
| 3. Chica De Oro (2) J: Michael McNab 58.5kg 234×1 T: Mark Walker & Sam Bergerson | |||
| Landed her maiden win last time when resuming from a spell over 1600m at Matamata. Has ability. Stick with her. | |||
I Promise (#2) is a 3yo Toronado gelding on debut for Lauren Brennan. He has trialled impressively ahead of this, showing good tactical speed and winning well at his latest trial. He maps to settle in a forward position from his wider draw in this smaller field, where I expect Sam Collett will look to be positive from the outset. He should take some beating if he runs up to his trials.
| 2. I Promise (7) J: Samantha Collett 57.5kg T: Lauren Brennan | |||
| Three-year-old gelding on debut. Has had four trials leading into this, scoring most recently at Matamata over 1000m. Promising type who looks sure to make a bright start to his career. | |||
Viridian (#13) is a 3yo Noverre filly on debut for Mark Walker and Sam Bergerson. She is a dual acceptor here and in Race 4 and looks a strong chance if connections opt for this race. She has shown enough at the trials to suggest she can take some beating in a maiden of this strength. Michael McNab takes the reins from a nice low gate, which should see her given every chance, likely settling off the speed in a race that looks to have a genuine tempo engaged. She can make her debut a winning one if she takes her place here.
| 13. Viridian (3) Scratched: | |||
Willoughby White (#4) backs up quickly after a 4th at Waverley five days ago, beaten 1.4L, where he was fairly one-paced in the straight from a midfield position but wasn’t beaten far. He maps to settle ahead of midfield, but may require some luck early from the wider draw to find a position. He now slides back to R60 company, and has shown enough at his past two starts in R65 grade to suggest he can be thereabouts in this. I’m happy to be with him on an each way basis in an even field.
| 4. Willoughby White (8) J: Jim Chung 59.5kg 05934 T: Chris Bothwell | |||
| In the placings two times from 17 starts but has just the one win to his name. Last start finished fourth over 1650m at Waverley, beaten 1.4 lengths. Others rate better. | |||
Meloni (#3) is locally trained by Robbie Patterson and comes here off a 5th at Waverley five days ago, beaten 1.9L. He looked to get his chance settling just off the speed with cover that day, but only let down fairly in the straight. He maps to settle handy again here, possibly a pair or two back off a genuine speed. He looks ready for the rise in trip, and I’m expecting him to run an improved race here. Hard to beat.
| 3. Meloni (3) J: Craig Grylls 57kg x4315 T: Robbie Patterson | |||
| Finished midfield last start at Waverley over 1650m, 1.75 lengths from the winner. Taking on this longer journey for the first time. Expect he can make amends. | |||
Classy Brahma (#5) comes here off a 5th at Hawera three weeks ago, where she sat handy up wide and working throughout without cover before weakening in the straight. She maps to settle handy to the speed again, hopefully taking a sit just off the leaders this time from the low draw, in a race that looks to have a genuine tempo engaged. She looks a leading contender in an even race.
| 5. Classy Brahma (2) J: Bruno Queiroz 58kg x3225 T: Trudy & Vaughan Keegan | |||
| Finished second at Trentham two runs back then turned in a handy run again when fifth over 1200m at Hawera last start. Up in trip and is worth some thought. | |||
