It is do or die for a number of nations as we reach the midway point of the pool section of the 2026 Rugby League World Cup.
These nations experienced very different openings to the World Cup with Tonga decimating England in a very impressive showing in Perth where the 30-12 final was not nearly reflective of their dominance. Lebanon were disappointing losing 42-18 to Papua New Guinea in Port Moresby in a match they opened 24.5-point underdogs and were bet into +8.5. There is absolutely no doubt this line is an overreaction to the four minuses covering in the final four matches. Lebanon had covered its eight prior World Cup matches prior to the Kumiuls loss and playing at CommBank is far more suitable than Port Moresby. These teams met in the 2017 World Cup and a heavily favoured Tonga won by just two points. Tonga put Cook Islands to the sword last World Cup but only rolled Wales 32-6. Jason Saab is an incredible price. He has 88 tries in 129 NRL games. Tolutau Koula is an elite tryscorer who scored against England and now has four tries in his last nine internationals. Haumole Olakau’atu is a wrecking ball who scored twice against England and has 50 tries in his NRL career.
Tips
Best: Lebanon +45.5 ($1.90)
Next: Lebanon +30.5 ($3.40)
Tryscorer: Jason Saab ($34 First, $4.40 Anytime)
SGM: Jason Saab Try/Tolutau Koula Try/Haumole Olakau’atu Try ($11.67)
Papua New Guinea are the best bet of the week getting an obscene 30.5-point start against Samoa who, despite winning 78-4 over France, were patchy against inferior opposition. PNG have won 13 of their last 14 Tests in Port Moresby and were super impressive in putting a well-backed Lebanon team to the sword. Toa Samoa have won all three Tests between these two nations but the biggest margin has been 34 points with the only meeting in the last decade determined by 18. Samoa won last week by ripping France apart through the middle. The Kumuls won’t be so easily bullied. Dudley Dotoi is an elite tryscorer who has 62 tries in 54 games for Townsville in the Queensland Cup. Chanel Harris-Tavita has six tries in 11 Tests including four in four starts in the halves.
Tips
Best: Papua New Guinea +30.5 ($1.90)
Next: Papua New Guinea Win ($9.25)
Tryscorer: Dudley Dotoi ($19 First, $2.80 Anytime)
SGM: Dudley Dotoi Try/Chanel Harris-Tavita Try ($6.50)
Both England and France will be happy to put the opening week of the finals behind them. England fought hard but were no match for a far more aggressive Tonga outfit while France were blown off the park by Samoa, playing an utterly stupid brand of football despite showing a fair degree of toughness. The best guide here is probably recent head-to-head fixtures. These teams have played seven times over the last decade and six of them have been decided by 38 or fewer including a 40-8 win in Toulouse when these teams last met in 2024. These teams have met at the last three World Cups and England have not won by more than 30. Happy to be with Les Chanticleers here despite their indifferent showing and moronic tactics against Samoa. Mathieau Jussaume scored 16 tries in 24 games for Toulouse this year and nearly scored for France against Samoa last week. AJ Brimson scored in the heavy defeat last week and has 31 tries in 78 games playing fullback in the NRL.
Tips
Best: France +42.5 ($1.90)
Next: France +36.5 ($2.35)
Tryscorer: Mathieau Jussaume ($67 First, $8.25 Anytime)
SGM: Matthieau Jussaume Try/AJ Brimson Try ($14.53)
New Zealand stunningly lost their opener against Australia but arguably left the opening weekend of pool action with the most impressive performance, even in defeat. The loss of Kalyn Ponga to a broken arm is, of course, a major worry but it won’t be a problem this week against a Cook Islands team that were utterly dreadful in a gettable game against Fiji. The Kukis just threw nothing at a poor Fiji side in attack and against a far more talented Kiwis outfit, they are at the mercy of New Zealand. These teams have met just once back at the 2000 World Cup with the Kiwis winning 84-10. The Kiwis are out to prove a point and have two 60-plus wins in three games against minnows at the last two World Cups so can put the foot down. Jahrome Hughes has six tries in 11 Tests. Casey McLean is an elite talent who has scored nine times in five Tests. Xavier Willison scored four tries in 12 games playing on an edge for the Broncos.
Tips
Best: New Zealand -52.5 ($1.90)
Next: New Zealand -69.5 ($3.80)
Tryscorer: Jahrome Hughes ($11.50 First, $1.78 Anytime)
SGM: Jahrome Hughes Try/Casey McLean Try/Xavier Willison Try ($5.02)
Australia’s remarkable run of playing Fiji at the World Cup continues as these nations meet for the seventh straight World Cup. Unsurprisingly the Kangaroos have won all seven meetings with five of those coming by 48-plus. Australia really didn’t put them to the sword in 2022 in a 42-8 victory but the Bati did have Viliame Kikay and Maika Sivo. Australia have won 10 of their last 13 against minnows by 42-plus and there is the attack in the Australian team to put the cleaners through an uninspiring Fiji outfit. Sam Walker makes his Test debut but he scored for the PM’s XIII in his only match in free and gold and comes off scoring 11 tries in 23 games this season. David Fifita finished the season with six tries in his final 12 games. Jack Bostock had a debut to remember with a hat-trick against New Zealand.
Tips
Best: Australia -44.5 ($1.90)
Next: Australia -59.5 ($3.50)
Tryscorer: Sam Walker ($12 First, $1.90 Anytime)
SGM: Sam Walker Try/David Fifita Try/Jack Bostock Try ($4.38)