Miami chase their first win of the season while the 49ers, Chiefs and Vikings look to remain unbeaten in a big Week 7 highlighted by the Chiefs-Seahawks Sunday Night Football clash.
The underdog has been the way to play primetime games of late and the Patriots look a very live underdog on the back of three straight wins where Drake Maye has thrown for 10 touchdowns. Favourites are an awful 5-14 against the spread in night games while the Pats have covered six straight primetime games. Mike Vrabel is 31-18-2 against the spread as an underdog of at least a field goal. The value is with New England. Corey Kiner is the best value TD bet of the week. He is an absurd $51 first and $8.50 anytime. He leads the team in redzone touches the last two weeks and comes off six- and 11-run games where he has averaged over 5ypc. DeMario Douglas has 11 catches for 151 yards and three touchdowns the last two weeks.
Tips
Best: New England +3 ($1.88)
Next: New England Win ($2.25)
Touchdown: Corey Kiner ($51 First, $8.50 Anytime)
SGM: Corey Kiner TD/DeMario Douglas TD ($36.36)
The NFL plays its first game in Paris with the Steelers and Saints set to meet at the Stade de France. The Saints will almost certainly garner the most support given the French influence on New Orleans and they look a very good bet. Kellen Moore’s team has covered eight straight road games and nine of their last 12. Bill Vinovich is a big underdog ref with favourites 64-91-2 against the spread. Teams with rest of 12 or more days on deck are 22-14 against the spread. New Orleans will be very confident of winning this one. Juwan Johnson has more redzone touches than any other Saint with the exception of Kendre Miller this year. He has three touchdowns in six games. Darnell Washington has scored in two of his last three games and his five redzone touches over the last three weeks leads the Steelers.
Tips
Best: New Orleans +3.5 ($1.83)
Next: New Orleans Win ($2.45)
Touchdown: Juwan Johnson ($16 First, $4 Anytime)
SGM: Juwan Johnson TD/Darnell Washington TD ($15.13)
Much like Tennessee last week, Miami getting a decent start is the best of the week despite being winless and having shown very little in 2026. Winless teams tend to have a great cover record as the season rolls on. Teams without a win from Week 5 onwards cover at 61% while those on the road are 63-40 against the number. Teams averaging fewer than 14ppg and go into a game less than an 8-point underdog cover at 66.7%. Home favourites like the Jets with a point differential of seven or worse are 46-73-3 against the spread. The Dolphins are an outstanding play. Ollie Gordon has been one shining light for the Dolphins with a touchdown in his last three games. Malik Washington has at least five catches in his last three games.
Tips
Best: Miami +4.5 ($1.90)
Next: Miami Win ($2.85)
Touchdown: Ollie Gordon ($9.50 First, $2.80 Anytime)
SGM: Ollie Gordon TD/Malik Washington 5+ Receptions ($5.12)
Arizona pulled off one of the upsets of the season when rolling division rivals the LA Rams last week as a 13-point underdog but it is back to reality this week against a ruthless Broncos outfit warming into their best football. Sean Payton is 34-12-2 against the spread in October while the Broncos are 11-3 against the spread under his stewardship on extended rest. Bo Nix has covered four of five against teams conceding 28ppg or more while the Cardinals have covered an NFL-worst one of 10 at home. Denver are an excellent bet. JK Dobbins scored first last week and has now scored in his last two. Marvin Mims is being scripted for at present and now has back-to-back weeks of two-plus catches. Kendrick Bourne is playing around 60% of snaps and has topped five catches in his last two games.
Tips
Best: Denver -4 ($1.88)
Next: Under 43.5 ($1.91)
Touchdown: JK Dobbins ($6.75 First, $2.05 Anytime)
SGM: JK Dobbins TD/Marvin Mims 2+ Receptions/Kendrick Bourne 4+ Receptions ($6.50)
Andy Reid and Patrick Mahomes are auto-bets when they are an outsider and that is what we have this week when the Chiefs go in small outsiders against defending Super Bowl champions Seattle. Mahomes is 13-3-1 against the spread as an outsider while the Reid/Mahomes combination are 10-1-1 against the number as a road underdog. Favourites are an awful 5-14 against the spread in night games with the underdog covering 11 of 16 Sunday Night Football games. The key number here though is that favourites with a win percentage of 25% or lower than their opponent are 24-49-2 against the spread. Kansas City are near-on the best bet of the week. Kenneth Walker III meets his old team in the best form of his career. He has eight touchdowns in five games and has topped 128 rushing yards in four. Jaxon Smith-Njigba has topped 100 receiving yards in five of six games.
Tips
Best: Kansas City +2.5 ($1.96)
Next: Kansas City Win ($2.15)
Touchdown: Kenneth Walker III ($5.40 First, $1.78 Anytime)
SGM: Kenneth Walker III TD/Kenneth Walker III 90+ Rush Yards/Jaxon Smith-Njigba 100+ Receiving Yards
Dallas have been woefully disappointing the last two weeks with primetime losses to both Tampa Bay and Green Bay, putting them in a quality rebound spot. Philadelphia have been completely gutted by injury and have the Jalen Hurts saga looming large over them. They have covered just one of eight as a home underdog under Nick Sirriani while the Eagles are 9-16-1 against the spread when his teams play a side on extended rest. Dak Prescott is 11-4 against the spread against Philly and is 7-2 against the number on Monday Night Football. Dallas have to be the play. Ryan Flournoy is playing an increasingly large part in the Dallas offense with 10 catches for 130 yards and a score in his last two games. Javonte Williams has scored in all bar one game this season.
Tips
Best: Dallas -4.5 ($1.92)
Next: Dallas 14+ ($4.40)
Touchdown: Ryan Flournoy ($23 First, $4.80 Anytime)
SGM: Ryan Flournoy TD/Javonte Williams TD ($8.33)
