We started the tournament with two former champions in the draw (Sinner and Djokovic) and we almost lost both on the opening day. Sinner was a shadow of himself and needed five set to get through while seven-time winner Novak Djokovic was in the thick of it in a tight four set match.
Cannot remember the last time Sinner had 31 aces in a match but he needed every one of them to get past Kecmanovic. There were question marks surrounding his physical condition leading into the tournament and they have just been magnified. Borges was a straight sets winner in his opening match and in normal circumstances we would be dismissing his chances. That is not the case this time around, especially after he made the semi finals on grass in Mallorca last week where he beat Mannarino, Struff and Darderi. Will be backing the Overs in all Sinner matches until we see him back to his best.
Best Bet: Over 30.5 games
Djokovic is the main reason why Tsitsipas is yet to win a Grand Slam. He denied him in both major finals that he contested including the 2023 Australian Open. The Greek’s career has taken a turn for the worse since as he has made it past the 2nd Round in only 4 of his 13 Grand Slam appearances since. That year (2023) was also a turning point for Novak as he has not won a major from 2024 onwards and the signs are there that he does not have long left. What he does have though is a completely dominant record against Tsitsipas having won 12 of the 14 battles they have had. Djokovic has won 16 of the last 17 sets they have contested and that trend is likely to continue as grass is Tsitsipas’ worst surface by a clear margin.
Best Bet: Djokovic -5.5 ($1.80)
Medvedev is harder to pick that the lotto numbers. He was knocked out in the 1st Round in 4 of the previous 6 Grand Slams but manages to come out and dismantle former finalist Marin Cilic 6-1 6-2 6-4. He now takes on a clay court specialist who can consider himself lucky to be here. Medira Aguilar lost the opening two sets but Ugo Carabelli injured his ankle and was forced to retire. It was an unusual way to claim his first ever win at Grand Slam level but his game does not transfer well onto grass. Medvedev will serve big and cruise through in straight sets.
Best Bet: Sets Medvedev 3-0
They meet for the second time in as many Grand Slam but Jodar will want to avoid another slow start. He lost the opening two sets against Carreno-Busta at the French Open but then reeled off 18 of the next 23 games. No disrespect to Felix Gil but he didn’t beat much in the opening round but winning 82% and 73% on 1st and 2nd serves respectively sets him up nicely for a battle against his countryman. Carreno Busta saved all 9 break points that he faced against Shapovalov before the Canadian retired at the end of the second set. The next piece of information is mind blowing – especially when you consider that Carreno Busta is a former top 10 player. That match was his FIRST EVER win at Wimbledon after having been knocked out in the opening round in all 7 of his prior appearances. On that alone we will be backing Jodar with confidence.
Best Bet: Jodar -5.5 ($1.87)
Sinner v Borges: Over 30.5 games
Tsitsipas v Djokovic: Djokovic -5.5 ($1.80)
Merida Aguilar v Medvedev: Sets Medvedev 3-0
Jodar v Carreno-Busta: Jodar -5.5 ($1.87)
Brooksby v Buse: Brooksby WIN ($1.73)
Davidovich Fokina v Marozsan: Davidovich Fokina WIN ($1.42)
Fucsovics v Tien: Tien -4.5 ($1.73)
Hurkacz v Ofner: Over 40.5 games ($1.75)
Kwon v Paul: Under 32.5 games ($1.95)
Mochizuki v Quinn: Over 37.5 games ($1.90)
Rinderknech v Damm: Rinderknech WIN ($1.67)
Safiullin v Van de Zandschulp: Set 1 Tiebreak – YES ($3.25)
