Svitolina, Vekic and Tauson were all first round casualties. It could have been more with Swiatek, Keys, Rybakina and Paolini being pushed to three sets. The return of Serena Williams was cut short but not before an epic that lasted almost two and a half hours. She came back from a set and a break down and even saved a match point in the second set breaker. Found herself a break up early in the third but Maya Joint broke in consecutive return games and was never headed. The big names have been put on notice and will need to produce their best on Day 4.
The defending champion was starting down the barrel of a third straight loss but managed to squeeze out a win against Townsend. The biggest concern for Swiatek is her second serve with 5+ and a total of 23 double faults in her last three matches. A matchup against Pliskova should help her get her confidence back as she has dominated this series. Swiatek holds a 3-0 advantage in the H2H and has won 6 of the 7 sets contested. Recorded a double bagel against her (6-0 6-0) on clay in 2021 and her natural ball flight (heavy top spin) allows her to consistently get the ball up and out of Pliskova’s desired hitting zone. Pliskova made the semis in Nottingham but I believe she will have trouble holding serve in this one.
Best Bet: Swiatek -4.5 ($1.87)
At her best Rybakina is a very tough out on grass but her first serve has been letting her down in recent months. Has made no more than 61% of 1st serves across her last 8 matches which has put increasing pressure on her second serve and getting involved in rallies from a defensive position. That is not her strength and McNally is an opponent that has troubled her in the past. The American won the opening set of their first meeting before Rybakina retired due to illness. Would consider leaving that result to the side but not when she almost beat Rybakina in their subsequent clash. That took place in Beijing last year with Rybakina winning 7-5 5-6 6-3. McNally won 585 of 2nd serve points compared to only 44% for Rybakina which tells us that McNally may have the edge in extended rallies.
Best Bet: Over 21.5 games ($1.90)
Value Bet: McNally WIN ($4.60)
Anisimova was back to her dominant best on serve in her opening match winning 83% of 1st serve points and 72% of 2nd serve points. That will make it difficult for Kenin to apply pressure – something she did well in her first match. Marcinko capitulated with 12 double faults which helped Kening win almost 80% of 2nd serve return points. Will not be gifted those points by her countrywoman and despite knowing one another’s games inside out, their previous clashes have failed to deliver. Of the 7 sets they have contested, none of them have produced more than 10 games with an average of 8.2 games per set. Only 1 of Kenin’s last 6 matches have gone the distance so we will be taking the Unders.
Best Bet: Under 19.5 games ($1.83)
Britain’s Katie Swan made full use of her wildcard with a win over Begu and it was only the second Grand Slam match win of her career. Has a 2-6 record all-time at Wimbledon and one of those losses was a 6-4 6-3 defeat at the hands of Keys in 2021. She was unable to generate a single break point opportunity in that match and despite Keys going the distance in her 1st Round match, she was broken only once in 16 service games. Three breaks is all we will need from her to cover the games handicap.
Best Bet: Keys -5.5 ($1.75)
McNally v Rybakina: Over 19.5 games
Pliskova v Swiatek: Swiatek -4.5 ($1.87)
Anisimova v Kenin: Under 19.5 games ($1.83)
Swan v Keys: Keys -5.5 ($1.75)
Blinkova v Kostyuk: Over 18.5 games
Bolkvadze v Krueger: Under 19.5 games
Cirstea v Birrell: Cirstea -3.5
Eala v Joint: Eala -4.5
Grant v Bouzkova: Under 20.5 games ($1.90)
Mertens v Timofeeva: Mertens -4.5
Navarro v Selekhmeteva: Selekhmeteva +1.5 Sets
Osorio v Noskova: Sets Noskova 2-0
Paolini v Golubic: Paolini WIN ($1.60)
Rakhimova v Sakkari: Rakhimova WIN ($2.50)
Shnaider v Samsonova: Shnaider WIN
Snigur v Jeanjean: Snigur -1.5 Sets
