US Open 2026: Men’s Final (Monday) | Tips & Preview

Ben Shelton backed up his victory over Alcaraz with a come from behind win against fellow American Tiafoe in the semi finals. He has undoubtably earned his spot in a first ever Grand Slam final but history is against him. It has been well publicised that Andy Roddick was the last American man to win a major back in 2003 but that is the least of his problems as his record against Zverev is ugly to say the least. The German has won all five prior meetings in this series and that is just the tip of the iceberg. Zverev has won the last 10 sets they have played, and although four of those have been tiebreakers, the matches have not been close. Shelton has had NO answer for the Zverev serve with ZERO breaks of serve in the last four meetings and a single break point opportunity created in the last 8 sets they have played!

Zverev has won list last four matches at the US Open in straight sets and has dropped serve just the once in his last three matches. In contrast, Shelton has been broken multiple times in all but one of his 6 matched played in the last fortnight – with all but one of those (Alcaraz) coming against inferior opposition to what he will face here. The statistical dominance both in the H2H and in this tournament cannot be ignored and the gap between them in betting should be significantly bigger. With this being his 6th major final, Zverev’s advantage with respect to experience will be telling. To think that the crowd on its own will carry Shelton to victory is a false perception. The top seed showed great patience in critical moments against Khachanov and as we have seen in their previous matches, Shelton does not have the tools to trouble Zverev. If Shelton is to win a set it will be in a tiebreaker which is great news for a play on Zverev to cover the handicap.

Tips
Best Bet: Zverev -1.5 ($1.87)
Set Betting: Zverev 3-0 ($3.90)
Set 1 Correct Score: Zverev 6-4 ($3.90)