If you’re not factoring in the referee, you’re missing an edge. Nick Tedeschi breaks down the key officiating trends that matter for Round 18.
Adam Gee
● Penrith are 19-2 with a 16-5 cover record
● Souths are 8-8 with a 9-7 cover record
● The under is 12-3 in 2026
● The under hits at 56% when there is a favourite of 4 or more
Penrith have an incredible record under Adam Gee and are a bet purely on that while Gee has been one of the top under officials in 2026.
Ref Lean: Penrith -4.5 @ $1.98 & Under 45.5 @ $1.98
Todd Smith
● The Dragons are 2-9 with a 4-7 cover record
● The Tigers are 1-7 with a 4-4 cover record
● The over hits at 55% in all Smith games
● The over hits at 61% when a home dog of 4 or more
● Night games go over at 57%
Todd Smith is one of the leading over referees in the NRL and his games tend to go over at night making this a small play.
Ref Lean: Over 48.5 @ $1.90
Gerard Sutton
● Brisbane are 13-6 with a 12-7 cover record
● Cronulla are 13-8 with a 12-9 cover record
● Road faves cover at 57%
● The over is 13-6 in Brisbane games
● The under is 8-1 in his last nine games
Both teams have a very good record under Gerard Sutton while he has been a strong over ref in Broncos game but on a hot under run.
Ref Lean: No Lean
Grant Atkins
● The Eels are 6-9 with a 5-10 cover record
● The Sea Eagles are 12-8 with a 13-7 cover record
● The over is 9-6 in Eels games
● The over is 16-4 in Sea Eagles games
● The over has hit in eight of the last 13 Atkins games
● The over hits at 56% when a 6.5+ favourite
● The over hits at 57% when a Top 8 team plays a team outside the Top 8
Grant Atkins is an elite over referee and both teams have huge over records on his watch. Atkins has also been very kind to Manly and not so kind to Parramatta over recent years.
Ref Lean: Manly -8.5 @ $1.90 & Over 49.5 @ $1.90
Wyatt Raymond
● The Knights are 2-5 with a 2-5 cover record
● The Dolphins are 4-1 with a 3-2 cover record
● Interstate favourites are 7-4 against the spread
● The over is 5-2 in Knights games
● The over hits at 70% when there is an interstate favourite
There are no angles with Wyatt Raymond at present – though the over is close to a play in this one.
Ref Lean: No Lean
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