World Cup Predictions & Tips | Round of 32: Portugal v Croatia

Match 83: Portugal v Croatia
Location: Toronto Stadium
Time: 11:00am, Friday 3 July
Head to Head: Portugal Wins (6), Croatia Wins (1), Draws (3)

Key Stats

• Portugal is undefeated in its last 9 games
• Both Teams To Score is 6-0 in the last 6 meetings between Portugal and Spain
• Croatia has failed to score in only 1 of its last 10 matches
• Portugal has been knocked out from the last two editions of this tournament as a firm favourite (Uruguay 2018 and Morocco 2022)

Preview

Portugal were marked down as a genuine contender leading into the tournament but outside of their first half against Uzbekistan, they have been very disappointing. In their opening group game against Congo, they managed to create only 7 shots despite having 75% possession. They managed to collect all three points against Uzbekistan but their final game against Colombia highlighted their struggles. Needing a win to top the group, they were comprehensively outplayed with Colombia dominating possession and creating 24 shot attempts – almost double Portugal’s 13.

The 0-0 draw against Colombia means Portugal has not gone 9 games without defeat but they haven’t exactly been an attacking force. They have scored more than two goals in 1 of their last 8 games and their history in this competition is one of disappointment. In 2018 and 2022 they were knocked out as firm favourites by Uruguay and Morocco respectively. In contrast, Croatia have finished 2nd and 3rd in the last two editions of this tournament which includes sending home the likes of Brazil and England!

An argument has been made that Portugal are better off facing teams from their confederation (UEFA). There could be some merit to that as they have an excellent record against Croatia with 6 wins, 1 draw and 1 loss. Both team to score has hit in the last 6 meetings between them with Portugal averaging 2.0 goals per game across those matches.

Player To Watch

There could be 0 goals or 5+ goals in this game but the only certainty is that Cristiano Ronaldo will be letting it fly every time he gets a glimpse of the goals. Portugal as a team have has 37 shots and Ronaldo has been responsible for 13 of them – a whopping 35%. Nobody expects him to return in four years’ time so he will be leaving it all out on the pitch for as long as Portugal are in the tournament. Take him to have 5+ shots at $2.55.

Betting Tips

Best Bet: Under 2.5 goals ($1.72)
Other: Ronaldo 5+ Shots ($2.55)
Value: Draw ($3.45)
SGM: Croatia Double Chance, Ronaldo 3+ Shots, Croatia Goalkeeper 4+ Saves ($4.73)