Ellerslie Tips & Preview | Saturday 16 May

Silky Shuba (#9) resumed with a very encouraging effort at Te Rapa two weeks ago, charging home from the rear for 2nd. She should strip fitter for that outing and retains the services of George Rooke, which is a big assist. A more favourable barrier draw this time should allow her to settle a touch closer in the run, and with natural improvement second-up, she looks ideally placed to go one better. 

Boxmoss (#2) has returned in very good order this campaign, producing two eye-catching runs where he has hit the line strongly despite not having the smoothest of passages. The rise to 2100m third-up looks ideal, especially given how he has been finding the line this campaign. He maps to settle back again from the middle draw and while he may require tempo and some luck in running, he appeals as overs at the price. 

Excite (#1) comes here off a strong win in the Listed Waikato Equine Veterinary Centre Stakes at Te Rapa, where he produced a career-peak figure. He looked very well suited by the rise to 1400m there and gives every indication that stepping to 1600m will suit equally well. If he can hold the level he reached last start, he looks the horse they all have to beat. On trial for a trip across the Tasman and would need to be winning this to justify heading towards a JJ Atkins. 

December (#2) was fair without threatening over the mile here last start, where he looked to get every opportunity but didn’t finish off so potently late. The drop back to 1300m looks a big positive and George Rooke remains aboard for this. More importantly, the race shape looks ideal for him, where I’ve got him mapped to land in the perfect trailing position behind likely leader Vegas Queen. He should get every chance to bounce back to winning form. 

Biding My Time (#8) looks a progressive filly after an impressive maiden win here first-up, where she rolled to the front and proved too slick over 1200m. She maps to control proceedings again here under Michael McNab and there doesn’t appear to be a great deal of pressure on paper. The slight drop back to 1100m shouldn’t pose any issue and she looks capable of measuring up in this company if allowed to dictate in front. 

Lady Impending (#12) resumes here for Stephen Marsh after a pleasing trial effort where she found the line strongly behind race rival Scolera. From the inside draw she maps to settle back along the fence in what looks a genuinely run race. She may require some luck in the straight and the gaps to go her way, but at the price willing to speculate on her running a cheeky race in a fresh state. 

To The Max (#5) resumed with a better effort than it may look on paper after covering extra ground throughout and racing in tight quarters in the straight. He draws more favourably this time and gains the services of Matt Cartwright, which looks a positive. He should strip fitter second-up and the rise to 1300m appears ideal. At the price, he shapes as a strong chance in a very even field. 

Orson Stone (#4) resumed with a very encouraging effort at Te Rapa over 1400m, finishing off strongly from a long way back. That resuming run suggested getting over additional ground second-up would suit and he gets just that here. The obvious concern is the very wide draw and how much of a start he concedes early. If they run along at an even-genuine tempo, he’ll be charging home mate again. Very appealing each way play to close the card.