The regular season wraps up and resting has hit the NRL hard with three of the seven finalists playing resting most of their stars but with the minor premiership to be decided, a South Sydney home final on the line and retiring stars across the board, there is still plenty to look out for as we get ready for the finals.
The final round of the regular season kicks off at Accor Stadium with what is a match without meaning, at least in terms of the ladder, with the Bulldogs heavily favoured against the Broncos. Canterbury’s intent is unknown with nothing to play for in what has been a disappointing season. Brisbane though should be well switched on after an embarrassing year with Michael Maguire trying to save his job. There is some value with the Broncos here. They have won and covered eight of the last nine against the Bulldogs with six of those wins coming by double digits. The top play in this game though is the under with the big total. Canterbury are a classic under team, having a bad attack and a reliable defence. The under has hit in nearly 67% of night games this season while the under hits at 56% when two teams 10th or worse meet. It is 15-8 when an interstate team is off conceding at least 45. The under hits in 62% of Bulldogs night games and is 17-10 when the Broncos are off conceding 30. Ezra Mam will be running at the weak Bulldogs right edge. He has scored in two of four against the Bulldogs while he has seven tries in his last six games. Jacob Preston has scored in two of his five matches against Brisbane. He has scored in his last two matches.
Tips
Best: Under 52.5 ($1.90)
Next: Brisbane Win ($3.35)
Tryscorer: Ezra Mam ($16 First, $2.80 Anytime)
SGM: Ezra Mam Try/Jacob Preston Try ($5.98)
Kristian Wolff surprised many by naming a full strength side to take on Gold Coast this week, prioritising momentum over rest as the Dolphins head into their first finals series. Only Selwyn Cobbo is out from last week. The Dolphins have won six of seven against Gold Coast and they will win this game by whatever they want. Gold Coast have dropped five straight, conceding 30-plus in each and losing four by double digits. The Titans are just 4-10 against the spread as a home underdog. The Dolphins are 37-22 against the spread at night while they are 10-4 against the number off conceding 12 or fewer. The Dolphins will be looking to run roughshod here. Max Plath is a truly elite player who plays big minutes and can find his way over the line. He has tries in each of his last two games. Herbie Farnworth has been in tremendous form with four tries in his last four games.
Tips
Best: Dolphins -13.5 ($1.90)
Next: Dolphins 41+ Points ($2.60)
Tryscorer: Max Plath ($23 First, $3.70 Anytime)
SGM: Max Plath Try/Herbie Farnworth Try ($5.80)
The oldest rivalry in Rugby League won’t enjoy its most competitive of matchups on Friday night with Roosters coach Trent Robinson resting nine starters as well as being without halfback Sam Walker in what is a white flag as he tries to regroup his unit after two horrific losses. As a result the Rabbitohs are favoured by close to four converted tries and it likely gets bigger as we get closer to the game with the Roosters every chance of resting other veterans named. Souths will be well and truly switched on for this game too as they honour Jai Arrow, who will run out for his 100th game in Souths colours. The Rabbitohs will win this and win big. They do drift out of games occasionally so the safest bet is to lay -11.5 to win the first half but betting Souths putting the foot down is the only way to play this one. David Fifita comes off scoring one of the tries of the season, an 80-metre run for the ages. He has five tries in his last 10 games and will wreak havoc against an undermanned Roosters outfit. The Rabbitohs have form feeding Alex Johnston when a tryscoring honour is on the board and that will be the case here. Johnston has 20 tries in 25 games against the Roosters including a hat-trick and a five-burder.
Tips
Best: South Sydney 1st Half -11.5 ($1.90)
Next: South Sydney 41+ Points ($1.95)
Tryscorer: David Fifita ($14 First, $2.45 Anytime)
SGM: David Fifita Try/Alex Johnston 3+ Tries ($13.46)
New Zealand have the opportunity to win just their second minor premiership and Andrew Webster clearly does not want to let the opportunity for the club slip, resting just Wayde Egan and Kurt Capewell. There is no questioning their form. They have won their last five, topping 40 in four of them despite having four different halves pairing over that run. While the Warriors can be bet, the top play is betting on points, taking the over and some extended lines. The Warriors and Sea Eagles have hit the over in 15 of their last 18 games while eight of the last 10 clashes have hit 44. The over is 44-26 in afternoon games this year while it is 8-4 when the Warriors are off scoring 40-plus and 16-5 when Manly play a day game away from Brookvale. The last two Warriors games have hit 71 points while Manly have scored 44 in their last two. This total is a high confidence play. Jacob Laban has been in white-hot form, particularly bringing down the high ball, and that won’t change this week. He has five tries in the last five weeks. Alofiana Khan-Pereira has the best strike rate in the NRL with 69 tries in 70 games. He has three doubles in four games against Manly.
Tips
Best: Over 49.5 ($1.90)
Next: 61+ Points ($4.00)
Tryscorer: Jacob Laban ($21 First, $3.60 Anytime)
SGM: Jacob Laban Try/Alofiana Khan-Pereira 2+ Tries ($10.16)
North Queensland will enter the finals next week as one of the least deserving finalists of the NRL Era with their -64 points differential. They are playoffs bound but they are simply not good with the long-gone Raiders capable of causing an upset in Townsville. Canberra have not been afraid of better teams, winning three of their last six against Top 8 teams, including a 26-12 win in Round 13. The Raiders are 20-11 against the spread off conceding 30-plus while they are 21-14 against the spread as an underdog of at least a try. With the Cowboys missing Jeremiah Nanai and the Raiders set to be up to send out Josh Papalii, the Raiders are the bet. Noah Martin has had an injury-ravaged season but he has looked an out-and-out edge tryscorer when healthy, scoring six tries in 16 games including the last two games. The Cowboys are weakest down their right edge, which plays well for Matt Timoko. He has four tries in his last 10 games.
Tips
Best: Canberra +5.5 ($1.90)
Next: Canberra Win ($2.45)
Tryscorer: Noah Martin ($26 First, $3.90 Anytime)
SGM: Noah Martin Try/Matt Timoko Try ($11.09)
Cronulla’s form has cratered over the last month with a Top 4 spot on the line and coach Craig Fitzgibbon seems to have thrown his hands up and will just hope things can be turned around in the finals. The Sharks have decided to rest a number of players this week including the out-of-form Nicho Hynes, Blayke Brailey and Teig Wilton. That leaves them vulnerable at home to a Melbourne team still playing hard with Craig Bellamy’s future unknown.The Storm have their star spine all in play here so should be able to control the tempo and field position here. The Storm have found some form over the backend of the season and they have won nine of the last 12 against the Sharks. A comfortable Melbourne win looks to be on the cards. Siulagi Tuimalatu-Brown looks an elite finisher with six tries in his last five games including a hat-trick when the Storm thumped the Broncos last Thursday. Oryn Keeley is getting plenty of chances close to the line in attack. He has two tries in his last five games.
Tips
Best: Melbourne -9.5 ($1.90)
Next: Melbourne 19+ ($3.20)
Tryscorer: Siulagi Tuimalatu-Brown ($8.50 First, $1.75 Anytime)
SGM: Siulagi Tuimalatu-Brown Try/Oryn Keeley Try ($6.51)
Afternoon games have gone over at a clip of 63% this year and with absolutely nothing to play for and the sun expected to be shining, the over is the best play of the week even with the number set at 56.5. These teams met in similar circumstances two seasons back and combined for 84 points. This is a huge over spot for the Dragons with the over hitting at 66% when teams off a loss of 30 or more meet a team outside the Top 8. The over is 8-5 when the Dragons are an underdog of a try or more in Wollongong and 9-5 when they are off a loss of at least 30. The over is also 33-20 when the Eels are away from CommBank with Parramatta conceding 28-plus in three of their last four. The Dragons are a show here too with favourites of at least a try covering at 32% when two teams 12th or worse meet. Moses Suli is not a noted tryscorer but has crossed in two of his last three and scored when the Dragons last met the Eels. Tallyn Da Silva is Parramatta’s top tryscorer this year with 12, scoring six tries in his last five games.
Tips
Best: Over 56.5 ($1.90)
Next: St George Illawarra Win ($2.15)
Tryscorer: Moses Suli ($17 First, $2.75 Anytime)
SGM: Moses Suli Try/Tallyn Da Silva Try ($5.69)
The final match of the regular season will likely determine the minor premiership with the Panthers set to know exactly what they will need to do to claim top spot. That puts the best play in this one, under 48.5, at some risk. At writing though it is a very good bet with the Tigers under also worth a play. Penrith have named a full strength team so the top-rated defence is unlikely to let the Tigers score. The Tigers have been held to 13 or fewer in seven of their last nine games. Penrith’s attack has been off, scoring 24 or fewer in eight of their last 10, so if this game is played straight the total looks too high. These two have a history of low-scoring games with the under hitting in 14 of the last 15 clashes. Take the under. Liam Henry has proven himself an excellent tryscoring prop of late with four tries in his last eight games. The Panthers will be trying to feed Tom Jenkins as he looks to become the NRL’s top tryscorer and he has 12 multi-try games this season.
Tips
Best: Under 48.5 ($1.90)
Next: Wests Tigers 10 or Less ($2.30)
Tryscorer: Liam Henry ($34 First, $5.60 Anytime)
SGM: Liam Henry Try/Tom Jenkins 2+ Tries ($14.23)
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