Te Aroha hosts a ten-race program on Thursday for the postponed Pakuranga Hunt Cup meeting, with the track rated a Heavy9 and the rail out 4m from the 1400m to the 1000m, with the remainder out 8m.
Mitch Davis has been through the form guide and speed maps and has provided his race analysis and betting strategy for each of the 10 races at the Te Aroha meeting on Thursday 3 September below:
Outovstock (#6) makes his hurdling debut here for the Nelson/McDougal team, one of the country’s leading jumping stables. He is without doubt the best performed flat horse in this field, having been a Gr.3 Manawatu Classic winner as a 3yo, though that was also the last time he was a race winner. He has had the benefit of four runs on the flat this time in to ready him for this 3100m hurdling assignment, so should be rock hard fit. Will be better suited than most if the track can remain at the better end of the Heavy range.
| 6. Outovstock (5) J: Jay Kozaczek 68kg X8706T: Paul Nelson & Corrina McDougal |
Happy Star (#1) is a well-accomplished hurdler who made an immediate impact at his steeplechase debut last week at Hawera, cruising to the line in second gear to win by 15L in the process. He returns back to the hurdles, despite being initially accepted for the steeplechase on Sunday, which is no real concern. He comes here rock hard fit on the short back-up and should take plenty of beating.
| 1. Happy Star (4) J: Kylan Wiles 70kg 31331T: Kevin Myers |
The Bossman (#2) heads here off a last-start win in an amateur riders race in maiden company, where he strode clear for a big win on a testing Heavy track under Scotty MacNab. While he may not get as testing a surface here, the simple fact that he retains the services of the country’s best amateur rider in Scotty MacNab is enough to stay in his corner. Expecting Scotty to find a similar position around midfield with cover from his wide draw before looking to blend into the race late. Can go back-to-back.
| 2. The Bossman (10) J: Scotty MacNab 69kg 51T: Kevin Myers |
Taika (#4) is a well-performed hurdler making his steeplechase debut in this maiden steeplechase field – often a recipe for success. He comes here off a last-start 4th earlier this month in the Grand National Hurdles at Riccarton, where he ran a brave race after being attacked a long way from home but just battled late. He looks very well placed in this maiden steeplechase, carrying the same weight as he did last start in the Grand National. Will be better suited if the track can remain at the better end of the Heavy range. Should take some beating.
| 4. Taika (1) J: Joshua Parker 68kg 02854T: Paul Nelson & Corrina McDougal |
Kalgarry Ally (#9) is a 4yo Almanzor mare who has been getting better with every run in her short career to date, placing at her past three starts. She was last sighted finishing off strongly for 2nd at Te Rapa last start, making up good ground from midfield in a race dominated by those up near the speed. Given how she has been getting home lately, the rise to 1400m here may just be what she is after. Finds a winnable maiden to be going one better.
| 9. Kalgarry Ally (4) J: Samantha Collett 56.5kg 90322T: Darryn & Briar Weatherley |
Duke Of Plumpton (#7) went under at short odds behind Smug last start, where he put in some poor jumps late in the piece and had to settle for 2nd. He looks well placed coming here on the minimum and should again appreciate Heavy conditions underfoot. Expect he’ll get back in the field from his wider draw before looking to blend into the race late. Can make amends and go one better here.
| 7. Duke Of Plumpton (7) J: Hamish McNeill 65kg 81102T: Caley Myers |
Gin And Bare It (#12) is a progressive speedy filly who has won her past two starts on Heavy tracks in very impressive fashion. She comes here off a short freshen, six weeks between runs, and now rises in grade tackling a very handy R75 field. As a consequence, she finds herself well situated right down in the weights carrying just 51.5kg after Joe Nishizuka’s claim. From the wider gate, she should still lead and run along and could take plenty of catching over the 1150m trip.
| 12. Gin And Bare It (8) J: Joe Nishizuka 51.5kg 2211T: Kylie Fawcett |
Joshua Brown (#1) is an enigmatic galloper who can be hard to catch at times and has been quite hit or miss this time in without winning. He was scratched from the 2100m race at Te Rapa last weekend and instead heads here over his preferred trip. The blinkers go on for this, which may spark some improvement, and it wouldn’t be a surprise to see him take up a forward position from the handy draw with them on given there doesn’t appear to be much tempo on paper. Very capable on his day and could take some beating if he finds something near his best.
| 1. Joshua Brown (4) J: Lynsey Satherley 60kg 76260T: Lance Gussey |
Paparazzi (#5) makes his resumption here for Pam Gerard, last seen finishing a long last in the Gr.3 Manawatu Classic back in March. He’s trialled nicely on a Heavy track ahead of this, where he responded nicely when asked for an effort. 1400m on a Heavy track first-up shouldn’t be too sharp for him. Expect he’ll settle back of midfield with cover from the wider draw and look to work home in the better lanes out wide.
| 5. Papparazzi (9) J: George Rooke 58.5kg 2500XT: Pam Gerard |
Girlzgirlzgirlz (#5) bounced back with an improved effort for 2nd last start at Te Rapa, where she was much more suited by the Heavy conditions underfoot than the Good4 track she struck prior. The wide draw come the last of the day shouldn’t be a negative, if anything it may be a positive to be off the fence at this stage of the card. She should be able to work forward early and take up a prominent position under 3kg claimer Tom Wigram in a race that looks to have a genuine tempo engaged. May just require a touch of luck early to be a factor again here.
| 5. Girlzgirlzgirlz (9) J: Tom Wigram 54.5kg 4102T: Donna Logan |


