New Zealand NPC Tips & Preview | Round 6

Hawke’s Bay’s winning run continued on Thursday, toppling Southland 36-21. It looked like it was going to be a much more comfortable, as they jetted out to a 31-0 lead inside the first half, thanks to five tries in the opening 40 minutes. Folau Fakatava ran riot at halfback, the forward pack dominated, especially at lineout time, and Zarn Sullivan ensured the Magpies controlled the first half, which ultimately set up the win for the visitors. Things were much less convincing in the second 40, as errors crept into Hawke’s Bays play, with complacency likely getting the better of them, but that didn’t stop the fun, with another five points banked to stay on top of the ladder with an unbeaten record. Fakatava was the standout, with two tries and a couple of try assists to boot, while his kicking and running from the base of the ruck were real headaches for the Stags. Sullivan and Nic Benn showed their class, while the Magpies defence, led by Tom Allen, defended their line well despite facing some pressure as the game went on.

Otago made it three wins on the bounce on Saturday, getting past Waikato 43-38. Both teams went blow-for-blow in Dunedin, but Otago again showed their class when it mattered most to go on a 10-3 scoring run in the final 20 minutes to take control of the game and pick up an important win. Their prowess at the lineout was integral to their strong finish, as was Sam Nemec-Vial who scored the decisive try with 15 minutes to play. That wrapped up what was an efficient attacking performance from the Razorbacks, as Christian Lio-Willie had another tidy game, with some damaging runs, good work at the breakdown while providing a stable option at the lineout. Jae Broomfield had another impressive attacking night, as did Sam Nemec-Vial and Lucas Casey, but Otago’s 32 missed tackles have left some room for improvement on that end of the park.

Hawke’s Bay have unsurprisingly recalled Hunter Morrison and Harry Godfrey to the starting team for this blockbuster, while Darby Lancaster also starts on the left wing. It’s a more stable Otago team, but they have a couple of big outs, with Jona Nareki and Joseva Tamani both out of the squad. Even with that, Otago will bring the fight to the Magpies in a way that they haven’t yet seen this season. The Razorbacks have the size and the accuracy to go toe-to-toe with Hawke’s Bay and this game will be closer than the market is predicting.

Best
Otago +8.5 ($1.92)

Value
Tri-Bet — Either Team By Under 7.5 ($3.00)

Try Scorer
Jae Broomfield ($14 First, $1.98 Anytime)

Same Game Multi
Jae Broomfield Try / Kianu Kereru-Symes Try / Henry Bell Try ($10.41)

Bay of Plenty recorded consecutive wins for the first time of the season, beating Auckland 22-19. It was an important win on the road for the Steamers, who came out onto Eden Park red-hot to score two quick tries, and it could easily have been three, had Charlie Sinton not thrown away a gimme, resulting in a 12-0 BOP lead. That buffer slipped away relatively quickly though, as the hosts ran in three straight tries for a 12-19 second-half lead, putting the Steamers on the back foot. The visitors’ errors were adding up and were putting them under a lot of pressure, but they kicked into gear just when they needed to, starting with a try to Richard Judd to tie the scores at 19 apiece. BOP controlled the majority of the final 10 minutes from there, with a Riley Hohepa penalty goal proving to be the difference. It was the Nikora Broughton show again for the Steamers, with the star No.8 running impressively, making 16 tackles and providing stability at set piece to be BOP’s rock once more. Cole Forbes was also a standout, scoring a try and making two line breaks, including one that sparked Judd’s influential try late in the game, while Joe Johnson was again a menace defensively with 25 tackles.

Manawatū got back to winning ways last week, upsetting North Harbour with a 43-40 victory. As 10.5-point underdogs at home, the Turbos had a big job ahead of them against an in-form Harbour squad, but the hosts started in style and that gave them the platform. Reece MacDonald finished an excellent counter-attacking try to start the action. Harbour were quick to reply with a try of their own but that Manawatū wasted no time in responding, as Mosese Bason and Taine Roiri crossed the chalk for a 27-7 lead. George Worboys was also getting in on the fun, with three conversions and two penalty goals inside the first half, and he kept the points coming off his boot in the second half to keep the Turbos’ noses in front and build a 43-28 lead, capped off by an excellent Kyle Brown try. The visitors, however, worked their way back into the game with a pair of tries to make it a three-point contest with 10 minutes to play, but the Turbos stood tall when it mattered most, fending off a late Harbour entry into their 22 by producing a big counter-ruck and, in turn, sealing the win. Worboys’ trusty boot was highly important, as was Bason’s running game which was a constant threat to Harbour’s defence. Brayden Iose and Taniela Filimone also carried well, while Brown provided good stability in the midfield.

Riley Hohepa starts at first five-eighth for Bay of Plenty in place of the injured Lucas Cashmore, while Jason Robertson starts at fullback for the in-form Forbes. For the Turbos, Jordi Viljoen is the big absentee, seeing Doug Philipson start at halfback, while Raymond Tuputupu returns to start at hooker. The Turbos will be flying high after last week’s victory but they it’s a much bigger obstacle in front of them this week. On the road against a good Bay of Plenty outfit, I expect Manawatū to be comfortably outclassed by BOP’s attack and execution, which will make this a very comfortable win for the hosts.

Best
Bay of Plenty -17.5 ($1.95)

Value
Bay of Plenty 21-30 ($4.20)

Try Scorer
Nikora Broughton ($16 First, $2.10 Anytime)

Same Game Multi
Nikora Broughton Try / Raymond Tuputupu Try / Reon Paul Try ($12.28)

Tasman’s good run of form came to an end at an untimely juncture last Sunday, losing their Ranfurly Shield challenge 10-20. Heading far north to Whangārei, the Mako would have been quietly confident of holding the Shield once more after picking up big wins over Southland and Counties in their two games prior, but they simply never got going at Semenoff Stadium. Eli Oudenryn scored the game’s first try off the back of a maul to give Tasman an early lead but they would squander plenty of chances from there to go into the sheds level at 10-10 with a good wind behind them. There were few positives for the visitors in the second half, though, as Northland dictated the run of play before things turned sour with five minutes to play, as Ryan Coxon was sin-binned moments before the Taniwha landed the knockout blow. Oudenryn was back to his best in this game with his strong carrying, and Cooper Roberts and David Havili had their moments, but Tasman will be bitterly disappointed with their execution, seeing them concede 13 penalties and 23 turnovers to let the Shield slip through their hands.

Wellington’s chances of a winless season increased dramatically on Sunday as they lost to Counties Manukau at home 35-46. With games against Tasman, Canterbury, Northland, Waikato and Taranaki in front of them in the final five rounds, it’s safe to say that the Lions will be underdogs in every contest, which is a grim prospect for the 2024 champions. They started Sunday’s game as 5.5-point favourites — their first game as favourites this season — but it took them just two minutes to leak their first try of the game as a sign of things to come. Come the end of the 80 minutes, Wellington had conceded another seven tries and 46 points, making their average points conceded per game this season a flat 48. Although the Lions built their way to a 21-12 lead, they had let it disappear to a 21-26 deficit by halftime despite closing the final 10 minutes with a one-man advantage, and there was no coming back from there. Conceding 12 penalties and 14 turnovers, it was another sloppy showing from the Wellingtonians, but their lowly 82% tackle completion was again their biggest concern. Caleb Delany again looked to get involved and Hugo Plummer was strong for his stint on the field, but it was another discouraging display from Wellington.

It’s a strong Tasman side named for this clash, with Mitchell Drummond returning to start at halfback. Macca Springer is also set to make his comeback off the bench and, for the Lions, they get Du’Plessis Kirifi and Callum Harkin back at 7 and 10, respectively. Their inclusions certainly mean something for Wellington, but it’s not going to get close to saving them on the road against this Tasman outfit. The market still seemingly hasn’t caught up with just how bad this Lions team is and I am happy to bet against them again this week. The Mako attack is going to run riot here and a sub-20-point line is very appealing to me.

Best
Tasman -18.5 ($1.90)

Value
Power Plays — Mitchell Drummond 1st, 2nd, 3rd OR 4th Try Scorer & Tasman Win by 21+ ($7.00)

Try Scorer
Kyren Taumoefolau ($8.00 First, $1.35 Anytime)

Same Game Multi
Kyren Taumoefolau Try / Eli Oudenryn Try / Johnny Lee Try / Du’Plessis Kirifi Try ($20.04)

Waikato came close to another big scalp on Saturday but they weren’t able to seal the deal in Dunedin, losing to Otago 38-43. The lead was constantly changing at Forsyth Barr Stadium, as the two sides went tit-for-tat to form an exciting contest, but the Mooloos weren’t able to keep their hot attack running into the final quarter of play, which ultimately cost them the game. When Daniel Sinkinson crashed over for a try at the 50-minute mark to put Waikato up 35-33, it looked like the visitors were on track for a highly-impressive win, but they went ice-cold from there, struggling to hold onto the ball and throwing away their own lineout ball to allow Otago to very much control the closing period of the game. Austin Anderson nudged over a penalty goal to at least gain a losing bonus point from the game, but Waikato would have been wanting more given how close much of the game was. With some injury concerns to Taha Kemara, Waisake Salabiau and Michael Naitokani, there were a few negatives from this Mooloos performance, but it was largely a positive showing. Malachi Wrampling was a wrecking ball in tight with 18 carries and 17 tackles, Anderson continued his strong season with a try, two line breaks, 14 carries and 18 tackles, and Nathan Stephens took his chances on the wing.

Canterbury couldn’t find the answers to Taranaki’s rampant attack on Saturday, resulting in a 26-40 loss. Going into the game as 7.5-point favourites on the road, it’s safe to say that the market believed in the Cantabrians in New Plymouth, but they never looked likely, with a 7-21 halftime deficit only getting uglier in the second 40. With a few key players missing, including Jamie Hannah, Ngane Punivai and Dallas McLeod, Canterbury were out-worked at the breakdown and were sloppy in general play, which made it hard for them to build any sort of momentum. Liam Jack always looked to get involved and finished with 15 carries and 11 tackles, and Isaac Hutchinson tried to spark the occasional attack but Canterbury’s success on that end was very much limited.

It’s an unchanged 23 for the Mooloos while Canterbury have brought some of their big guns back in, as Dallas McLeod, Ngane Punivai and Brodie McAlister all come back to the XV. That sets us up for a very fun Saturday night clash, and I think Canterbury are in trouble again here. They are slim favourites at the time of writing, but I am giving Waikato the edge. Their loosies are going to cause chaos and their backs have show the ability all season to make something out of nothing. I am still not sold on this Richie Mo’unga-less Canterbury side, making Waikato the bet.

Best
Waikato +1.5 ($1.90)

Value
Waikato 1-12 ($3.60)

Try Scorer
Waisake Salibiau ($12 First, $1.80 Anytime)

Same Game Multi
Waisake Salibiau Try / Austin Anderson Try / Jone Rova Try ($11.88)

Counties Manukau notched up their first win of the season with a 46-35 victory over Wellington. There was a back-and-forth flow to the game in the first half, with a couple of late tries sending the Steelers into the sheds with a 26-21 lead, before Counties struck three times in quick succession early in the second half to make it a 43-21 lead. That was all of the try-scoring that would take place for Counties, who were ruthless for the opening 55 minutes of play and took advantage of some woeful Wellington defence, and while the Steelers took their feet off the gas in the final quarter the result was never in doubt. Their attack basically couldn’t be stopped in Wellington’s 22, with 4.6 points per entry, and their defence held firm enough. Cam Church was the star with a try, three line breaks and 25 tackles, while Gibson Popoali’i steered the back line with a couple of line breaks and elusive carries.

Southland simply couldn’t match Hawke’s Bay’s attack and efficiency last Thursday in a 21-36 defeat. It was a horrific opening 40 minutes from the hosts, conceding five tries and heading into the sheds down 0-31. To make matters worse, Glen Vaihu left the game due to a failed HIA, but to the Stags’ credit, they refused to roll over in the second 40 minutes, winning the rest of the game 21-5, but it would be naive to focus on the positives here. Their lineout was abysmal throughout, losing nine of their 12 throws, and they simply could not execute when in Hawke’s Bay’s territory, with just 21 points from their 12 entries into the 22. Sean Withy was a workhorse again with a try, 14 carries and 23 tackles and Ale Aho also worked hard defensively, with 19 tackles and a ruck turnover.

There is just one change to Counties’ starting team, with Alamanda Motuga starting in place of Church, but Southland have rung in the changes. Jimmy Taylor comes back to start at first five-eighth while, in the pack, Sam Fischli and Mitch Dunshea are two of the five new faces, including an all-new front row. With these changes I am expecting a rather scrappy attacking display from the Stags and a return to Counties’ lowly attack, which averaged just 17.8 points per game in the first four rounds. That makes the under my bet here, having hit in four of five Southland games this season

Best
Under 64.5 ($1.90)

Value
Southland 1-12 ($3.50)

Try Scorer
Michael Manson ($13 First, $1.87 Anytime)

Same Game Multi
Under 64.5 / Michael Manson Try / AJ Alatimu Try ($19.33)

North Harbour saw their three-game win streak come to an end last week, falling to Manawatū 40-43. It was largely a disappointing performance from an in-form Harbour team, losing the contest despite being 10.5-point favourites going into the contest. Although they will feel as well they did well to get back into the game, their opening half-hour was woeful and that ended up costing them the game. The Turbos ran in three tries and kicked two penalty goals for a 7-27 lead and there was no coming back for the visitors, as their discipline and ball security regularly let them down. They did mount a comeback to get within three points late in the piece and had their chance to win the game, deep in Manawatū territory as the clock wound down, but they couldn’t land the final blow in Palmy. They’ll be particularly disappointed with their defence, which folded almost every time the hosts got deep into Harbour’s territory, and their 18 lost turnovers really hurt. George Reeves was the pick of the bunch for the visitors, as their excellent form in the loosies continued, while Coby Miln showed a good knack for finishing.

Northland made it a successful first Ranfurly Shield defence on Sunday, valiantly holding out Tasman in a 20-10 triumph. It was a classic Shield clash, with both teams showing a lot of emotion, nerves and passion, but it was the Taniwha who handled it best, with a composed final 10 minutes seeing the Shield stay in the far north. The first half ended tied 10-10 and the scores stayed that way for the first 30 minutes of the second half, despite Northland having the better of the play, but they eventually made it pay, first through a penalty goal from the boot of Rivez Reihana. A try was then thrown away by the Taniwha but it didn’t end up mattering, as Tasman picked up a yellow card for cynical play before Reihana found his way over the line after a few close calls to make it a 10-point lead and seal the win. The first five-eighth was among the standouts for the hosts, scoring 15 of their 20 points while keeping the defence guessing, and Rob Rush had another standout showing with plenty of carries and tackles.

North Harbour have the luxury of an unchanged team going into this clash, while the Taniwha have heavily rotated their team, with the likes of Reihana, Sam Nock, Lachlan Hooper and Heremaia Murray all moving to the bench and James Mullan, Rob Rush and Brady Rush all sitting this one out. The big news for Northland is that star No.8 Terrell Peita returns to start at the back of the scrum. Harbour will be wanting to win this game, with the Taniwha resting a slew of their stars, but I am not expecting it to be smooth sailing for the hosts. Northland are conceding just 14 points per game this season and while we have seen some red-hot attack from Harbour, I can’t see it continuing against a very organised Northland squad. The under is 4-1 in Taniwha games this season and that’s the way I am betting again.

Best
Under 60.5 ($1.85)

Value
North Harbour 1-12 ($3.00)

Try Scorer
Israel Leota ($12 First, $1.64 Anytime)

Same Game Multi
Under 60.5 / Israel Leota Try / James Ramm Try ($9.41)