Ellerslie hosts a 10-race program on Saturday for Proisir Plate Day – the first Group 1 meeting of the season. The track is rated a Soft5 and the rail is in the true position. Showers forecast ahead of raceday could see the track come up closer to a Soft6, but should be racing in good order for the duration with all runners getting their chance.
Mitch Davis has been through the form guide and speed maps and has provided his race analysis and betting strategy for each of the 10 races at the Ellerslie meeting on Saturday 5 September below:
Excite (#1) is a 3yo Wootton Bassett colt resuming here for the James/Wellwood stable, last seen at the races winning in fine fashion in Listed company as a 2yo at Te Rapa back in May. He has trialled recently behind open class horses on the Cambridge Synthetic, where he was striding out nicely to the line under his own steam. The outside gate is the main knock for him here given there doesn’t appear to be an abundance of early pressure, but hoping George Rooke rides him like the best horse and puts him in the race early. Can kick off his 3yo season with a bang.
| 1. Excite (8) J: George Rooke 58kg 2241XT: Roger James & Robert Wellwood | |||
| Resuming from a spell. Ran fifth in a trial at Cambridge Synthetic. Opened last campaign with a second at New Plymouth Raceway over 1200m. Everything points to a effective return. | |||
Fly My Wey (#2) comes here off a fair effort for 5th against many of the horses he meets again here, where he secured a soft trailing run but only let down fairly after being held up early in the straight. Happy to forgive that last-start effort and go again here, where he looks extremely well placed on the minimum with Michael McNab now taking over the riding duties. In a race devoid of early tempo, he looks very likely to be settling up on speed throughout from his low draw, which should see him afforded every chance. Expecting him to run an improved race here.
| 2. Fly My Wey (3) J: Michael McNab 54kg 18345T: Mark Brosnan | |||
| Has been out of the money in recent runs including last time out when fifth over 2100m at Te Rapa two weeks ago, beaten 1.2 lengths. Tough to beat if near his best. | |||
Jamaican Boy (#12) comes here on the short turnaround from the Cambridge Synthetic meeting last week, where he was seen finishing off stoutly into a close-up 3rd. Prior to that he ran a mighty race for 3rd behind With Grace and Sweet But Psycho, which has stacked up as a good form reference since. Back on the turf suits and he should be better suited by the improved footing than most in this. Expect him to settle midfield with cover at worst from his low draw in what will likely only be a moderately run affair. Looks the one to beat in an even field.
| 12. Jamaican Boy (3) J: Joe Doyle 56.5kg 70433T: Shane Crawford | |||
| Game effort last start when he finished a close third at Cambridge Synthetic over 2000m. Leading prospect. | |||
Pukana (#2) resumes here, last sighted racing here in May over 1500m where he didn’t quicken late and just battled on into 8th. He draws a nice low gate for his resumption, where I expect him to settle in the second half of the field with cover off a strong tempo being set out in front. 1100m may be a touch short of his best trip, but if they overdo it in front he possesses the turn of foot to finish over the top late if at his best. Can run a cheeky race at odds.
| 2. Pukana (2) J: Matthew Cameron 59.5kg 5438XT: Tim & Margaret Carter | |||
| Has not raced since finishing 4.5 lengths away in eighth over 1500m at this track on May 16. Should run well. | |||
Miss Magnetica (#14) heads here second-up off a simply luckless run last start at Te Rapa, where she was bolting for a run near the fence but never got clear running. She draws wide here and while that may see her settle back in the field, it should mean George Rooke has her in clear galloping room this time around. There looks to be a genuine tempo in this race, which should set up nicely for her to be finishing off over the top late. Looks a key chance in a very even MAAT field.
| 14. Miss Magnetica (9) J: George Rooke 54kg 5X9T: Hollie Elliot | |||
| Beaten 2.5 lengths into ninth when resuming last start over 1200m at Te Rapa. Strips fitter and should be in the mix. | |||
Drommy (#1) was finding the line powerfully at Te Rapa last start, getting back in an evenly run race but putting in some good strides late to finish 2nd. He looks suited remaining at the mile here and importantly gets a positive swing in the barriers, which should see him settle much closer to the speed under George Rooke. The blinkers going on for this may only spark further improvement. Looks the one they have to beat with even luck in running.
| 1. Drommy (5) J: George Rooke 60kg 31522T: Ben & Ryan Foote | |||
| Dual acceptor. Has been about the mark in recent runs, the latest effort a second over 1600m at Te Rapa two weeks ago. Featured in the Stewards’ report on that occasion. Big chance to return to the winner’s list. | |||
Dream Roca (#2) is a Queensland-based filly making the trek across the Tasman yet again for Liam Birchley, having won the Karaka Millions 2yo here back in January. She comes here first-up, last seen finishing well down the track in the Gr.1 JJ Atkins back in June. Her trials in Queensland ahead of this resuming run have only been fair, but the stable wouldn’t be making the trip if she wasn’t on song heading here. Drawn to settle not far from the speed throughout under Matt Cartwright and should get her chance to remain unbeaten in NZ.
| 2. Dream Roca (2) J: Matt Cartwright 56.5kg X3300T: Liam Birchley | |||
| Finished 12th last start in the J.J. Atkins over 1600m at Eagle Farm, beaten 14 lengths by Tron Bolt. Huge chance in this line-up. Follow up. | |||
Tajana (#5) resumes here as a 4yo for the Ritchie/Murray stable, having raced against the best 3yos going around last season. She was last seen finishing 8th in the Gr.1 NZ Oaks back in March, but had finished a close-up 3rd behind Ohope Wins and Single Red in Gr.2 fillies company prior. She has had a quiet trial on the Cambridge Synthetic to ready her for this assignment, where she wasn’t asked for much of an effort. Sam McNab’s 2kg claim is a big plus and sees her carry just 55.5kg here. Expecting her to settle midfield on the fence from her low draw before looking to finish off strongly late.
| 5. Tajana (2) J: Sam McNab 55.5kg 0138XT: Shaune Ritchie & Colm Murray | |||
| Returns from a break. Fitter for a recent trial at Cambridge Synthetic. Opened last campaign with a win at Pukekohe over 1600m. Very good fresh performer. Has claims if presented on song. | |||
Well Written (#15) resumes here as an unbeaten 4yo mare, having won all six of her starts as a 3yo last season and narrowly holding off Belle Cheval in the NZB Kiwi at her last start back in March. She has had the benefit of two trials ahead of this campaign, the latest of which she was asked for an effort by Matt Cartwright and responded nicely. She draws an ideal gate for her resumption, where she should be able to float forward and find a position a pair or two back from the speed. Looking to extend her perfect record to seven from seven and should take plenty of beating here.
| 15. Well Written (7) J: Matt Cartwright 56.5kg 1111XT: Stephen Marsh | |||
| Comes here following success in THE KIWI six months ago over 1500m at this track, scoring by 0.04 lengths. Is a budding champion, and is the one to beat. | |||
The Precursor (#2) is a lightly tried 6yo son of St Jean resuming for the James/Wellwood stable, last sighted finishing 6th in the Gr.2 Avondale Cup back in February. He resumes here over a mile, which is possibly a touch short of his best, but he has performed very well over this trip in the past. He has trialled nicely ahead of his resumption, hitting the line strongly under very little pressure. Abinith Simon’s 4kg claim helps offset the sizeable 61kg impost also. He is likely on a path towards a NZ Cup in November but can run a cheeky race in a fresh state.
| 2. The Precursor (5) J: Abinith Simon 57kg 1316XT: Roger James & Robert Wellwood | |||
| Resuming from a spell. Fitter for a recent trial at Avondale. Opened last campaign with a win at New Plymouth Raceway over 1600m. Very good fresh performer. Looks all set for a positive return. | |||

