2025 Victoria Derby Day Tips & Preview (Flemington) | Saturday 1 November

Vinrock hasn’t quite hit the same heights this season that he did during his two-year-old campaign, but he did manage to win the Exford Plate over 1400m here second up, while he was last seen finishing on the placegetters’ heels in the Caulfield Guineas. Those are the right sort of form lines to see him into the finish of a race like this one.

Sheza Alibi is yet to turn in a poor performance and won two of four starts during her debut prep, going to the paddock after only just missing at Listed level in Brisbane, while she was doing her best work through the line in the Gothic Stakes when resuming this time. With improvement for that run and with a little more of the Peter Moody & Katherine Coleman polish applied, she can win this week.

Her first two runs back this time were full of merit, and while Royal Insignia didn’t fire in the Gilgai Stakes at Group 2 level, she recorded the fastest final 200m of the day in the Moonga Stakes last time out after copping interference. She’s hard fit this week and gets into the race well under Michael Dee.

Fashionable has only made three appearances at the races since debuting, but each performance has been a clear improvement on the one that preceded it. By Savabeel and out of the classy New Zealand staying mare Mary Quant, she’s bred to relish another rise in trip, and she has plenty of upside.

Ndola returned to action with a fine performance to strike in BM80 company down at Morphettville and franked that effort by winning again at Caulfield last time out. This is another rise in class but she’s another one that gets into her race well under the conditions, and I think she looks a great chance of the hat-trick.

The Coolmore Stud Stakes has attracted an excellent field of three-year-old sprinters, and My Gladiola is one that looks to represent value in betting. She has finished worse than second once in six career starts so far, and My Gladiola was an eye-catching winner down the Flemington straight two runs back before only just missing in the Danehill last time out. She’s been kept up to the mark with a trial and rates as a key winning chance once more.

Observer has been excellent in all three runs back this time and was an eye-catcher in last weekend’s Group 2 Vase at The Valley. On the quick back-up and out to the 2500m he looks well placed and I’ve got him on top, but I’m also going to have an each way play on Azazel at big Victoria Derby odds. Azazel has only made three appearances at the races so far, but he’s stamped himself as one to follow by winning two of those, including the Geelong Classic at Listed level last week. By Shocking, he’s bred to stay all day.

The Empire Rose Stakes is another perfect Group 1 target for Fangirl. The talented daughter of Sebring has been typically excellent this season and defended her crown in the 7 Stakes before finishing a credible sixth in the King Charles III Stakes last time out. She’s hard fit, this is a weaker race, and she can return to winning form.

Generosity was sent off a popular pick in the market in the Sydney Stakes on The Everest Day but ultimately finished seventh behind Rothfire, albeit beaten less than two lengths. Prior to that, she mustered an impressive performance to finish third behind the likes of Joliestar and Briasa in The Shorts, and with further improvement this week, I think she’s beautifully placed.