NRL Refs Stats That Matter | Round 25

Grant Atkins

• The Storm are 17-13 with a 16-14 cover record
• The Panthers are 13-6 with an 11-8 cover record
• Home teams cover at 58%
• Interstate favourites cover at 39%
• The under is 17-2 in Penrith games

Grant Atkins is a referee who came through the ranks at Penrith but the Panthers are not particularly strong under his whistle with interstate favourites particularly poor. The under has an insane record when Penrith play.

Ref Lean: Melbourne +8.5 @ $1.78 & Under 42.5 @ $1.90

Adam Gee

• The Raiders are 10-12 with a 10-12 cover record
• The Raiders have failed to cover their last four
• The Broncos are 7-16 with a 9-14 cover record
• The under is 15-6 in 2026
• The under hits at 58.1% when there is a double digit favourite 

Adam Gee is the leading under official this year and the under has a very strong record when there is a big favourite in play.

Ref Lean: Under 51.5 @ $1.90

Gerard Sutton

• Dolphins are 5-8 with a 7-6 cover record
• The Eels are 5-12 with a 7-10 cover record
• Favourites of 4 or more cover at 56%
• The under is on a 13-3 run in Sutton games
• The over is 9-4 in Dolphins games

The under has had an extraordinary run of it lately under Gerard Sutton so needs to be played despite the strong over record of the Dolphins under his whistle.

Ref Lean: Under 51.5 @ $1.90

Wyatt Raymond

• The Knights are 3-6 with a 4-5 cover record
• The Sea Eagles are 2-3 with a 3-2 cover record
• Top 8 teams cover at 57%
• Day games go over at 60%

There are no major angles with Wyatt Raymond though his day/night splits are very traditional and make the over a small play.

Ref Lean: Over 50.5 @ $1.90

Todd Smith

• Souths are 5-8 with a 7-6 cover record
• New Zealand are 5-7 with a 4-8 cover record
• Interstate favourites cover at 41%
• Interstate favourites of 4 or more cover at 36%
• The over hits at 55% in all Smith games

Interstate favourites have a terrible record under Todd Smith and the Warriors cover at just 33% so Souths have to be tried getting 4.5 points.

Ref Lean: Souths +4.5 @ $1.92

Liam Kennedy

• The Dragons are 4-4 with a 5-3 cover record
• The Bulldogs are 2-4 with a 3-3 cover record
• Faves of 6.5 or more cover at 55%

There are no leans with Liam Kennedy in the middle with the whistleblower renowned as a ledger balancer.

Ref Lean: No Lean

Peter Gough

• The Titans are 7-8 with a 10-5 cover record
• The Sharks are 7-2 with a 7-2 cover record
• The under has hit in 14 straight Gough games
• The under hits at 60% when there has been an interstate team

The run of unders with Peter Gough in the middle has been nothing short of extraordinary with even day games riding a five-game under streak.

Ref Lean: Under 49.5 @ $1.90

Ashley Klein

• The Roosters are 15-14 with a 14-15 cover record
• The Tigers are 2-3 with a 3-2 cover record
• Favourites cover at 55%
• The over is 5-1 when a 16+ favourite
• Day games go over at 56%

Ashley Klein is a big over ref when there is a sizable favourite and when games are played in the afternoon.

Ref Lean: Over 52.5 @ $1.90