NRL Tips & Preview | Round 25

There is every chance Penrith hit the button and go whoosh against an undermanned Melbourne side to get their premiership tilt back on track but in their current form it is hard to get excited about them being so heavily favoured interstate against a team that plays them well. Melbourne have won four of the last six against Penrith and home underdogs of eight or more off a win of 20-plus cover at 62%. Penrith have won just three of their last eight games and have failed to cover six straight interstate matches. They are 3-9 against the spread when favoured by more than eight points and 3-10 against the number at night. The value has to be with Melbourne here. Oryn Keeley has two tries in five games since joining the Storm mid-season and he is usually overs having scored nine tries in 27 games across the last three seasons in the lower grades. Nathan Cleary has scored in his last two games against the Storm.

Tips

Best: Melbourne +8.5 ($1.90)
Next: Melbourne Win ($3.10)
Tryscorer: Oryn Keeley ($26 First, $4.60 Anytime)
SGM: Oryn Keeley Try/Nathan Cleary Try ($13.31)

The Raiders faithful bids farewell to club legend Josh Papalii with the leviathan prop set to play his last game at Canberra Stadium as his glittering career comes to a close. Canberra will be more than switched on for this game but laying the 9.5 points to be with them is an entirely unappealing prospect even against a Broncos side that has long ago thrown the towel in. The top play in this one is the under. Night games are going under at over 68% this year. The under also hits at 65% when two teams 12th or worse have met over the last four seasons. The under is 17-8 when Brisbane are off conceding 30 or more and 14-9 when they are an underdog of a try or more. This total looks to be on the big side. Owen Pattie is wildly underrated as a tryscoring prospect. He has three tries in his last six starts. Kaeo Weekes scored a double when these two teams last met in the finals series last year. He has 11 tries in 22 games in 2026.

Tips

Best: Under 51.5 ($1.90)
Next: Under 44.5 ($2.80)
Tryscorer: Owen Pattie ($34 First, $5.20 Anytime)
SGM: Owen Pattie Try/Kaeo Weekes Try ($9.49)

Fireworks should be the order of the night when the Dolphins host the Eels in the late game on Friday night. Two of the three clashes between these sides have reached 60 points and given the state of the Dolphins’ attack and the Eels’ defence then we are set for points. The Dolphins have scored at least 28 in three of their last four while the Eels have conceded 24 or more in four of their last five. This is a strong over spot for both teams too. The over hits at nearly 64% when there is an interstate underdog of 12.5 or more off a win. The over hits at 67% when the Dolphins are favoured at Suncorp while it is 17-6 when Parramatta play interstate. Points are coming. Kodi Nikorima has 12 tries in 38 games across the last two seasons and is well over the odds when the Phins are so heavily favoured. Herbie Farnworth has 21 tries in his last 39 games and has scored in three straight against Parramatta. Selwyn Cobbo is in red-hot form with 12 tries in his last nine games.

Tips

Best: Over 51.5 ($1.90)
Next: 61+ Points ($3.40)
Tryscorer: Kodi Nikorima ($19 First, $3.10 Anytime)
SGM: Kodi Nikorima Try/Herbie Farnworth Try/Selwyn Cobbo Try ($9.82)

The disrespect being afforded to the Knights by the betting market continues this week with the 7.5-point line not nearly big enough for a finals team against a Sea Eagles side in free fall. The Knights are flying, scoring 30 or more in their last three. The Sea Eagles’ defence has cratered, conceding 38-plus in three of their last four. Newcastle have won four of their last five at home against Manly. They are 33-19 against the spread against teams outside the Top 8. They are 31-20 against the number in day games. They have covered six of nine off scoring 36-plus. Manly have not covered any of their last five away from Brookvale and teams off being shutout cover at just 46%. The Knights can be bet with confidence. Fletcher Sharpe is an elite tryscorer with 34 tries in 46 games. Greg Marzhew is having a career season with 21 tries in 21 games. He has seven tries in eight matches against Manly.

Tips

Best: Newcastle -7.5 ($1.90)
Next: Newcastle 13+ ($2.50)
Tryscorer: Fletcher Sharpe ($12.50 First, $2.35 Anytime)
SGM: Fletcher Sharpe Try/Greg Marzhew Try ($3.56)

South Sydney have been hit and miss for much of the season but one line of consistency has been their form at Accor. The Rabbitohs have been utterly stunning bets at their main home ground with Souths covering a remarkable 10 straight at Accor. In their last 21 games at Accor, the Bunnies have covered 18 of those. As an underdog at the ground, the Rabbitohs have covered 14 of 20. This has been a matchup that has very much tracked in South Sydney’s favour too. The Bunnies are 17-8 against the spread since 2008 while they have won 14 of the last 17 against the Warriors. Souths look very good value in this one. Tallis Duncan has 20 tries in 38 games when starting in the second row or the centres. David Fifita is starting to find his best football with four tries in his last eight games.

Tips

Best: South Sydney +4.5 ($1.96)
Next: South Sydney Win ($2.35)
Tryscorer: Tallis Duncan ($16 First, $3.10 Anytime)
SGM: Tallis Duncan Try/David Fifita Try ($10.87)

Canterbury are the ultimate under team. They cannot score, ranking bottom four in points and scoring more than 18 in just two of six. They defend well, ranking sixth in defence. It has resulted in eight unders in their last 10 matches. That sets up nicely against a Dragons team that has topped 24 points just once this year. The under is the best bet of Round 25. Night games go under at 68% this year while it hits at 58% when home underdogs are off a win. The under is 20-10 when the Dragons are off scoring 24 or more. The under is 13-4 when Canterbury play a bottom five team, 19-7 when the Dogs are favoured by at least a converted try and 5-1 when Canterbury play at Accor. This total is just too big. Lachlan Galvin has been a quality tryscorer since joining the Bulldogs, scoring 11 in 35 games including seven this season. Tyrell Sloan has been in sensational form with eight tries in his last eight games.

Tips

Best: Under 43.5 ($1.90)
Next: Neither Team To Score 20+ Points ($4.40)
Tryscorer: Lachlan Galvin ($19 First, $3.60 Anytime)
SGM: Lachlan Galvin Try/Tyrell Sloan Try ($6.75)

The loss of Braydon Trindall in this one is a concern given he leads the NRL in try assists but this line does look very skinny with the Titans already looking to 2027. The Sharks have owned the Titans for a long time with 12 wins in the last 13 clashes with the last three all being Cronulla wins of at least 32 points. The Sharks have covered 10 of the last 12 meetings.The Sharks have been poor the last two weeks and are on their final chance here but this is a good spot. Cronulla are 31-16 against the spread against teams outside the Top 8 while the Sharks are 24-15 against the number off a loss. Gold Coast are 4-8 against the spread as a home underdog. If the Sharks are anywhere near on song they should win this by a big margin. Teig Wilton is having his best tryscoring season with eight tries in 19 games. KL Iro has 24 tries in 33 games across the last two seasons, an elite strikerate, particularly for a centre.

Tips

Best: Cronulla -6.5 ($1.90)
Next: Cronulla 13+ ($2.60)
Tryscorer: Teig Wilton ($23 First, $4 Anytime)
SGM: Teig Wilton Try/KL Iro Try ($8.08)

The only way to play this game is to be with the Roosters laying a start that at writing is the second biggest of 2026. The Roosters opened -16.5 with the line out to -23.5. It will start bigger. Adam Doueihi has been ruled out for the remainder of the season by the Tigers in what looks like one of the great smother jobs. Dating back to 2008, no one team has dominated another more than the Roosters over the Tigers. They are 22-3 in the last 25 matches while the Roosters are 23-4 against the spread in the last 27. The Roosters have won both meetings at the new Allianz by at least 24 points. Teams off beating Penrith cover at 60% the last four years while the Roosters are 8-3 against the spread at Allianz. The Tigers have covered just three of 11 against Top 2 opposition while they are 7-15 against the spread on the road as a double digit underdog. The Roosters showed a ruthlessness in running in 82 against the Cowboys so this is an incredibly dangerous situation for the Tigers. Robert Toia has been in very good tryscoring form with four tries in his last seven games and 10 for the season. Mark Nawaqanitawase has 15 tries this season and now has 40 in 41 games over his short career. Sam Walker is having a tremendous tryscoring season with nine tries in 19 games.

Tips

Best: Sydney Roosters -23.5 ($1.90)
Next: Sydney Roosters -39.5 ($4.20)
Tryscorer: Robert Toia ($10 First, $1.94 Anytime)
SGM: Robert Toia Try/Mark Nawaqanitawase Try/Sam Walker Try ($5.94)