Evan Psarras previews Week 2 of the 2025 NRL Premiership Finals.
The Raiders had one foot in the preliminary final but blew a 16-point lead with less than 15 minutes to play. They were the victims of a Reece Walsh masterclass with Ben Hunt slotting the winning field goal in the 93rd minute! Josh Papalii made it through the contest while Zac Hosking escaped suspension meaning the same 17 will get a chance of redemption this week. The Sharks were excellent defensively in an upset win over the Roosters and made it through unscathed. The duo of Burns and Wilton will continue on the edges with Nikora to again come off the bench.
Head To Head
Their one and only meeting this season came in Round 5 and it was one to remember. The Raiders scored a miracle try in the dying stages to post a 24-20 win which ended a 3-game losing streak against the Sharks. They have met a total of 7 times in the finals with the Sharks holding a 4-3 advantage. The home team has won 6 of the 7 battles with the Sharks claiming the only victory as the away team. They have split the last 18 meetings hosted by the Raiders (9-9) with the Green Machine successfully covering the start only once in their last 7 when installed as a home favourite. There have been more than 44 total match points in only 1 of the last 7 meetings in this series.
Stats That Matter
A 16-4 record (80%) on the back of a win in the last year highlights how important momentum has been for the Raiders, but they have not been as effective following a loss with a 3-2 record in that period. Their loss to the Broncos was only their second home defeat in the last year (11-2) and the Sharks haven’t exceeded expectations often in this spot. They are 2-4 both straight up and at the line in their last 6 as an away underdog and would certainly prefer a low-scoring game. The Under is 4-0 in their previous 4 away games and has held in 69% of their road matches played in the last 12 months. The Sharks have not won consecutive finals matches since they won the premiership in 2016 and are 0-6 in their last 6 away finals matches.
Prediction
There are losses, and then there is the way the Raiders got beat last week. They played an additional 15 minutes of bruising footy in extra time/golden point and the Sharks will have the advantage of an extra day’s rest. The Sharks barely touched the ball in the first 10-15 minutes of the second half against the Roosters but somehow managed to be the stronger team physically in the closing stages of the match. That is a great sign for the visitors, and I am taking them with the start here.
Best Bet: Sharks +5.5 ($1.90)
Value: 21-30 Total Match Points ($8.00)
Same Game Multi: Under 46.5 points, Tribet 1-12 – Either Team By Less Than 12.5, Mulitalo Anytime Try ($5.98)
Their respective matches in week 1 of the finals could not have gone any differently. The Bulldogs played their hearts out in a desperate bid to beat the Storm and earn a vital week off but came up short. To make matters worse, the injury toll has gone from bad to worse. Tuala is out for the season after suffering a broken leg while captain Stephen Crichton has somehow been listed on the extended bench despite sustaining an ankle injury. Kikau will play through his facial injury while Toby Sexton will partner Galvin in the halves with Burton to play centre. Meanwhile, the Panthers barely came out of second gear in a comfortable win over the Warriors and there are no injury concerns to any of their key players.
Head To Head
The clash between them in Round 17 was arguably the best match of this year’s regular season. The Panthers won an epic defensive battle 8-6 which extended their win streak against the Bulldogs to 8 games. Their Round 26 clash became an infamous one as the Panthers rested their entire starting side – virtually gifting the Bulldogs a 28-4 win. The Panthers have won 14 of the last 17 meetings as the betting favourite but the biggest interest lies in the total. The Under has held in 10 of the last 13 meetings and 7 of the last 10 hosted by the Bulldogs. Jacob Preston has 4 tries in his last 2 against the Panthers courtesy of a hat-trick in their most recent clash while Brian To’o has 3 in his last 3 appearances in this matchup.
Stats That Matter
The Panthers have now won their last 13 finals matches and last week was another prime example of defence being their biggest weapon. They have conceded 12 or fewer points in 12 of their previous 13 finals games with the Under holding on in 7 of their last 8 away finals matches. Discipline and patience have been key features in their game which have helped them take a lead into half time in each of their last 8 finals games overall. In addition to this, the Panthers have scored the opening try in 8 of their last 10 games leading into this one with forwards accounting for four of them – Papalii (2), Smith and Garner. The Bulldogs have shown some level of resilience with wins in 6 of their last 9 following a loss and have covered the line in 3 of their last 4 as the outsider.
Prediction
Full credit to the Bulldogs for their effort and fight last week but the Panthers will have a full week to prepare for their forced adjustments. The Storm failed to capitalise on the injury to Crichton while he remained on the field and did not place enough pressure on Burton’s kicking game. You can be assured that the Panthers will not afford him the same amount of time and will be relentless in building pressure. The Bulldogs will be hoping that a bumper crowd can earn them some favourable calls from the officials but that will not be enough. The Panthers will be marching on.
Best Bet: Panthers -9.5 ($1.87)
Value: Panthers by 13-18 ($5.60)
Same Game Multi: Half Time/Full Time – Panthers/Panthers, Under 39.5 points, To’o Anytime Try ($6.26)