Evan Psarras previews the 2026 Wimbledon Ladies’ Semi-finals.
Coco Gauff v Karolina Muchova
It seems as though we have been guilty of underestimating the resilience of Gauff. Her last four matches have gone the distance and she has been forced to come from a set down in her last two (Bencic and Pegula). She took her chances against Pegula going 5 from 5 on break point opportunities. It allowed her to overcome 7 double faults and she now has the benefit of what has been a favourable matchup. Muchova was too good for Osaka – making almost 70% of 1st serves and winning 80% of those points. It meant very few opportunities for Osaka and she will need to be as good, if not better on serve, in the semi. Gauff has won 6 of the prior 7 meetings between them with all 6 of her wins coming on a hard court. Muchova’s only win came on clay but the positive for her is that it was their most recent meeting in Stuttgart earlier this year. Gauff has won their two prior clashes at Grand Slam level including the Australian Open at the start of this season making her a good bet in this one. Gauff to win a tight three set battle.
Best Bet: Gauff WIN ($1.90)
Value Bet: Sets Gauff 2-1 ($4.40)
With Kostyuk getting the better of Paolini, we will have a least one new Grand Slam finalist. She is looking to go at least one better after having made the semi finals at the French Open but Noskova is playing at an extremely high level herself. Dominance on serve has been the critical component of success for both players over the last fortnight. Noskova has dropped serve just once in her last two matches and faced a single break point in her win over Mertens. Similarly, Kostyuk faced two break points in the 4th Round against Krueger and ZERO in a crushing 6-3 6-2 win over 2024 finalist Jasmine Paolini. The one and only meeting between them came a few months ago on clay in Madrid. Kostyuk won 7-6 6-0 and won an incredible 82% of second serve return points. As they have already shown us, breaking serve will not be as easy on grass and in very fast conditions. Really like the Overs and can see at least one of the sets being a tiebreaker.
Best Bet: Over 22.5 games ($1.88)
Value Bet: Set 1 Tie Break – YES ($4.20)
