The Bulldogs extended their win streak to three games with a 105-96 victory over the Swans. It was the third time in as many games that they scored 100+ points, and it has helped solidify their place in the top 8. The Kangaroos fell to 0-6 in their last 6 after a win in an 85-point thumping against the Hawks but have been successful at the line in 63% of games following a loss in the last year. The Bulldogs have won 8 in a row in this series and 13 of the last 15 clashes when installed as the favourite. The Under is 4-0 in the Roos last 4 home games but they will have to match motors with the visitors in front of goal as the Over has hit in each of the Bulldogs last 6 away games. Sam Darcy has kicked 3+ goals in his last 3 appearances and is due for another big night in front of goal.
Blues fans were not shy to display their disgust following a 50-point loss to the Power and they will not get any easier when they host the Magpies – winners of their last 7 who sit 10 points clear of second place on the ladder. They have dominated this series having won the last 11 meetings when listed as the away team. They have covered the line in 6 of the last 8 battles as an away favourite and the Blues best hope lies in making this a low-scoring game. The Under has held on in 9 of the Blues last 11 home games and this streak could continue as the Under has held on in the last 3 meetings. Moreover, the Under has hit in 67% of Blues away games in the last 12 months and 69% of their games following a win during that period.
The Eagles led the Pies at half time but failed to score a single goal in the final term – eventually going down by 29 points. Meanwhile, the Giants improved to 4-1 in their last 5 with a win over the Suns prior to last week’s bye and will see this as a great opportunity to improve their percentages. The Giants have won 4 of the last 5 clashes with an average winning margin of 53.5 points in those four wins. They have won and covered the line in their last 3 away games with the Over hitting in each of those matches. The Over has also hit in 70% of Eagles home games in the last year so a triple figure score for the visitors is on the cards. The Eagles have outscored their opponents in the 4th quarter just twice in 15 games this season which suggests a late surge from the Giants will allow them to cover the start.
The Suns ended a 3-game losing streak with a win over the Demons but the same cannot be said about the Bombers who have lost their last 4 and are falling off the pace with respect to finals contention. The Bombers have conceded more than 105ppg during their current sling streak and that streak could continue as the Over is 3-0 in the last 3 meetings in this series with both teams scoring 80+ points in each of those contests. The Bombers have covered the line in only 30% of home games in the last year while the Suns are 5-3 both straight up and at the line in their last 8 as an away favourite. The home side ranks second last in first quarter performance with a 4-10 record in the opening term this season accompanied by a scoring percentage of 54.05%. The Suns will lead at every break.
GMHBA Stadium is usually a fortress for the Cats, but the Lions cracked the code in a 92-51 win. The Cats fell to 10-5 in games at their spiritual home dating back to the start of last season, but this is the BEST time to back them. They have won 6 of their last 7 following a loss with a perfect 7-0 record at the line in those games. The Tigers have lost their last 6 games and have been terrible in their last two games in particular – losses by 68 and 79 points to be specific. The Cats have won 7 of their last 9 as a home favourite in this series and the Tigers 4-7 line record as an away underdog in the last year hardly makes them an enticing bet despite getting a huge start. The Cats will bounce back in style.
The Lions were very impressive in a road win over the Cats and return home where they have won 5 in a row against the Power. A 3-1 record in their last 4 has helped the Power stay within touching distance of the top 8 but they have not won at The Gabba since 2017. The Under has held on in 67% of Power matches following a win in the last year and is 5-0 in their last 5 away games. This lines up perfectly with the Lions 9-3 Under record in the last 12 months and suggests that accuracy in front of goal will be worth its weight in gold here. The Power rank 13th in that department with a 49.8% conversion rate and have kicked more goals than behinds in only 2 of their last 9 games.
The Hawks solidified their place in the top 8 with an 85-point thumping of the Kangaroos – their third straight win. The Saints on the other hand continue to slide down the ladder on the back of a third consecutive loss and a run of 6 defeats in their last 7. The Saints have failed to cover the line in their last 3 home games and have won only 3 of their last 11 against the Hawks when installed as the outsider. The Hawks have proven to be a dangerous side when they gather momentum having won 12 of their last 17 following a win with a 71% strike rate at the line in those games. The Hawks have won 10 in a row against bottom four teams with the Over hitting in 5 of their last 6 at Marvel Stadium.
The Swans lost a pivotal home game to the Bulldogs last week and the surface at the SCG continues to come under fire. They will need a small miracle if they are to play finals footy and it starts with ending the Dockers 6-game win streak. The Dockers have covered the line in 3 of their last 4 as an away underdog and have come away with the points in their last two trips to the SCG. In fact, the away team is 6-0 both straight up and at the line in the last 6 matches in this series. The Under is 4-0 in the Dockers last 4 away games and history suggest they will take an early lead as the Swans have trailed at quarter time in each of their last 4 games as the betting favourite.
The Crows used the bye to great effect and returned to the winner’s circle on the back of a crushing 68-point win over the Tigers. In contrast, it has been more than a month since the Demons last win and four consecutive losses means they can say goodbye to finals footy. The Demons have won 4 in a row against the Crows and have covered the line in 4 of the last 5 as an away underdog. The Under has held on in 9 of the Crows last 13 following a win and a low-scoring game would make it easier for the visitors to cover the start. The Under is also 6-2 in the last 8 clashes hosted by the Crows in this series with the last four battles at the Adelaide Oval producing an average of 154 total match points.