NRL Refs Stats That Matter | Round 21

Gerard Sutton

• Parramatta are 5-11 with a 6-10 cover record
• Penrith are 19-7 with a 16-10 cover record
• Favourites of 4 or more cover at 55%
• The under is on a 10-2 run in Sutton games

Penrith and Parramatta both operate at very different levels under Gerard Sutton while the under run is so hot that it can be bet with confidence in Sutton games.

Ref Lean: Penrith -15.5 @ $1.85 & Under 44.5 @ $1.90

Wyatt Raymond

• Newcastle are 3-5 with a 3-5 cover record
• The Roosters are 1-2 with a 1-2 cover record
• The under hits at 54.5% when there is a home underdog
• The under hits at 62.5% when two Top 8 teams meet

The under is in a good spot this week with it hitting with a home underdog and when two top teams meet with Wyatt Raymond in the middle.

Ref Lean: Under 45.5 @ $1.98

Ashley Klein

• Souths are 10-8 with a 10-8 cover record
• Melbourne are 16-11 with a 12-15 cover record
• Top 8 teams against teams outside Top 8 cover 61%

Ashley Klein is straight down the middle with his numbers but Top 8 teams playing teams outside the Top 8 do tend to cover at a higher clip than most officials.

Ref Lean: Souths +1.5 @ $1.83

Jarrod Cole

• Canberra are 1-0 with a 1-0 cover record
• Wests Tigers are 0-1 with a 0-1 cover record
• The under is 14-2 in Cole’s 16 games
• The under is 7-0 when a team is favoured by 8 or more points

Jarrod Cole has been an utterly unstoppable under force since making it to the NRL with the under 14-2 in his first 16 games in the big league.

Ref Lean: Under 51.5 @ $1.90

Adam Gee

• Canterbury are 8-6 with a 7-7 cover record
• New Zealand are 6-9 with a 9-6 cover record
• The under is 13-5 in 2026
• The under hits at 56% when there is a favourite of 4 or more
• The under hits at 61% when an interstate favourite of 4 or more

The under has been in sublime form under Gee’s whistle while this is a good spot for the under with an interstate favourite of at least a try.

Ref Lean: Under 42.5 @ $1.90

Tyson Brough

• Favourites are 1-0 against the spread in Brough games
• The under is 1-0 in Brough games

Tyson Brough made his NRL debut last week and gave just five penalties and five set restarts to go with two sin bins in a strong first game.

Ref Lean: No Lean

Todd Smith

• The Dragons are 3-9 with a 5-7 cover record
• The Titans are 5-7 with a 5-7 cover record
• The under is 8-4 in Titans games
• The over hits at 55% in all Smith games

Todd Smith is typically an over referee but there is no angle strong enough to push a bet in this one.

Ref Lean: No Lean

Grant Atkins

• Manly are 12-9 with a 13-8 cover record
• Cronulla are 8-8 with a 7-9 cover record
• Home teams cover at 58%
• Home underdogs cover at 62%
• The over is 16-5 in Manly games

Manly look an outstanding bet given Grant Atkins’ home-team tendencies while Manly have an incredible over record on his whistle.

Ref Lean: Manly +3.5 @ $1.90 & Over 46.5 @ $1.90