History
The international rugby history between these two proud rugby nations dates back almost 120 years, with the first encounter coming in 1905. New Zealand prevailed 15-0 on that occasion and have been dominant throughout history, owning a 35-8-2 record against their English foes. For games played in England, the All Blacks are 19-5-2, while at Twickenham (or Allianz Stadium, as it is currently called) they are 17-3-2. The last English victory came in the semifinals of the 2019 Rugby World Cup, where the Red Roses prevailed 19-7.
Form
The second-and-final Test of England’s series against New Zealand was the last Test match they played. That was over two months ago, as the Red Roses left Aotearoa without a win following an agonising defeat in the opening Test of the series and another tight matchup in the second match. Overall, England are 4-4 in 2024, including a third-place finish in the Six Nations.
New Zealand breezed past Japan in last week’s friendly, winning 64-19 in Yokohama. The hosts scored first through Jone Naikabula but a seven-try first half from the All Blacks ensured the result was all but locked in at halftime, with a 43-12 buffer. A late double from debutant Ruben Love was the cherry on top for Scott Robertson’s men, who are now 7-3 under his guidance.
Teams
England: 1 Ellis Genge, 2 Jamie George, 3 Will Stuart, 4 Maro Itoje, 5 George Martin, 6 Chandler Cunningham-South, 7 Tom Curry, 8 Ben Earl, 9 Ben Spencer, 10 Marcus Smith, 11 Tommy Freeman, 12 Ollie Lawrence, 13 Henry Slade, 14 Immanuel Feyi-Waboso, 15 George Furbank. Reserves: 16 Theo Dan, 17 Fin Baxter, 18 Dan Cole, 19 Nick Isiekwe, 20 Ben Curry, 21 Alex Dombrandt, 22 Harry Randall, 23 George Ford.
New Zealand: 1 Tamaiti Williams, 2 Codie Taylor, 3 Tyrel Lomax, 4 Scott Barrett, 5 Tupou Vaa’i, 6 Wallace Sititi, 7 Sam Cane, 8 Ardie Savea, 9 Cortez Ratima, 10 Beauden Barrett, 11 Caleb Clarke, 12 Jordie Barrett, 13 Rieko Ioane, 14 Mark Tele’a, 15 Will Jordan. Reserves: 16 Asafo Aumua, 17 Ofa Tu’ungafasi, 18 Pasilio Tosi, 19 Patrick Tuipulotu, 20 Samipeni Finau, 21 Cam Roigard, 22 Anton Lienert-Brown, 23 Damian McKenzie.
Steve Borthwick has made four changes to his last XV that was beaten by the All Blacks at Eden Park in July. Ben Spencer will make his starting debut, replacing the injured Alex Mirchell at halfback. George Furbank also returns to start at fullback for Freddie Steward, while Ellis Genge starts for Fin Baxter in the front row and Tom Curry replaces Sam Underhill at openside flanker.
Looking back to the last full-strength team that Scott Robertson named, against Australia in the last round of The Rugby Championship, Razor has named a slew of changes. Ethan de Groot has been stood down for disciplinary reasons, seeing Tamaiti Williams start at loosehead and Ofa Tu’ungafasi join the bench. Cortez Ratima starts at halfback and Cam Roigard joins the bench, pushing TJ Perenara out of the 23, while Jordie Barrett returns from injury to start at second five-eighth. Mark Tele’a also replaces Sevu Reece on the wing.
Stats That Matter
- England have covered their last six games against New Zealand
- England’s last win over New Zealand at Twickenham was in 2012
- The average scoreline between these two teams in games played in England is 20-14 in NZ’s favour.
- The All Blacks are 4-2 ATS in their last six road games
The Verdict
It wasn’t long ago since we last saw New Zealand and England go head-to-head on a rugby field and Sunday morning brings the third matchup of the year, this time at Twickenham. England made a real contest out of their two-game tour in Aotearoa, losing the first game in heartbreaking fashion 15-16, before throwing away a seven-point lead in the second match to lose 17-24. However, now at their home ground, the Red Roses will be better off. Despite a season of club rugby being their only build up to this game, Steve Borthwick has named a reasonably settled team that brings some experience and some rising form. With home wins over Ireland and Wales in the Six Nations earlier in 2024, it’s clear that England are a different beast at home and the All Blacks will find that out on Sunday morning.
The Prediction
England by 2
Tips
Best Bet: England +4.5 ($1.90)
Next: Total Points — Under 48.5 ($1.87)
Value: England 1-10 ($3.80)
Anytime Try Scorer: Immanuel Feyi-Waboso ($2.40)