NRL Refs Stats That Matter | Round 23

Adam Gee

• Gold Coast are 3-10 with a 3-10 cover record
• North Qld are 9-7 with a 7-9 cover record
• The over is 8-5 in Gold Coast games
• The under is 14-6 in 2026
• The under hits at 61% when there is a home underdog

Gold Coast have a horrific record under Adam Gee but the best way to play this one is the under, which has hit in 14 of 20 games this year and lobs at 61% when there is a home underdog.

Ref Lean: Under 48.5 @ $1.90

Gerard Sutton

• New Zealand are 3–8 with a 3-8 cover record
• Penrith are 20-7 with a 16-11 cover record
• Favourites of 4 or more cover at 55%
• The under is on a 11-3 run in Sutton games
• The under hits at 58% when an interstate 4+ fav

New Zealand have a disastrous record under Sutton’s whistle with Penrith having a strong record against the market while the under has been on a tremendous run this year when he is the man in the middle.

Ref Lean: Penrith -4.5 @ $1.96 & Under 40.5 @ $1.90

Grant Atkins

• The Roosters are 20-10 with a 16-14 cover record
• Canterbury are 6-8 with a 5-9 cover record
• Home teams cover at 58%
• The under is 9-5 when Canterbury play
• The over hits at 61% when there is a favourite of 8 or more

Home teams tend to have a strong record under Grant Atkins while Canterbury are particularly dire when he is the man in the middle.

Ref Lean: Sydney Roosters -8.5 @ $1.83

Kieren Irons

• The over hit in his only NRL game

The over landed in Kieren Irons’ only NRL appearance but we do not have enough games under his belt to have any reliable trend data.

Ref Lean: No Lean

Todd Smith

• Dolphins are 9-4 with a 10-3 cover record
• Brisbane are 10-6 with a 7-9 cover record
• Favourites of 6.5 or more cover at just 43%
• The over is 9-4 in Dolphins games
• The over hits at 55% in all Smith games

Todd Smith is the leading over official in the NRL and the Dolphins have a very strong over record under his whistle.

Ref Lean: Over 48.5 @ $1.98

Wyatt Raymond

• Souths are 3-4 with a 2-5 cover record
• Parramatta are 4-5 with a 5-4 cover record
• The over is 6-3 in Parramatta games
• Night games go under at 59.3%

Wyatt Raymond gets just his fourth game since Round 14 in the top grade after some inconsistent performances. There are no angles at play this week.

Ref Lean: No Lean

Ashley Klein

• Canberra are 11-6 with a 12-5 cover record
• Newcastle are 4-11 with a 6-9 cover record
• Interstate teams cover 45%
• The over is 10-5 in Newcastle games

Canberra have fared particularly well with Ashley Klein officiating while interstate teams have a very poor record, as do Newcastle.

Ref Lean: Canberra -2.5 @ $2.05

Liam Kennedy

• The Dragons are 3-4 with a 4-3 cover record
• The Sharks are 4-1 with a 4-1 cover record
• Faves of 6.5 or more cover at 55%
• Faves of 12.5 or more cover at 64%
• The under is 4-1 in Sharks games

Favourites have an excellent cover record under Liam Kennedy with big favourites covering at an obscene 64%, making Cronulla an excellent play.

Ref Lean: Cronulla -15.5 @ $1.90