NRL Tips & Preview | Round 23

The complete and abject humiliation North Queensland suffered last week, becoming the first team in the 119 seasons of premiership football to concede 80 points post the club’s inaugural season, sets them up as the best bet of Round 23. Teams who have conceded 66 or more points since 2008 are a perfect 13-0 against the spread the following week. Teams off conceding 56 or more playing a team outside the Top 8 cover at 70% while favourites off conceding 60 or more cover at 83%. You won’t find a better angle this year. The Cowboys have also covered 13 of 18 off a loss of 20 or more while they have covered six of the last nine against the Titans. The Gold Coast have lost young halfback Zane Harrison and have covered just six of 19 off a loss of at least 20. Chips in North Queensland. Zac Laybutt should benefit from the Titans conceding 41% of tries down their right edge. He has one try in four games against the Broncos. Jake Clifford has seven tries in 19 games this season and has scored in five of his 10 matches against Brisbane.  

Tips 

Best: North Queensland -3.5 ($1.82)
Next: North Queensland 13+ ($3.00)
Tryscorer: Zac Laybutt ($21 First, $3.75 Anytime)
SGM: Zac Laybutt Try/Jake Clifford Try ($14.52) 

The match of the round is unquestionably the Top 4 clash between premiership favourites Penrith and third-placed New Zealand in a match that will have major ramifications on the minor premiership and the makeup of the Top 4. Penrith have been the benchmark this season and maintain the best attack and defence but over the last six rounds they rank eighth in both categories. The Warriors, over that same period, lead the NRL in defence while they rank seventh in scoring. Home underdogs off a win cover at 58% while home underdogs of four or more off a double digit win cover at 67%. The Warriors are 21-12 against the spread getting four points while they are 6-3 against the number as an underdog at Mt Smart. Penrith have not covered any of their last five interstate games while they are 3-8 against the spread in night games. The Warriors are not being shown enough respect in this game. Leka Halasima has 19 tries in 41 games across the last two seasons and has three tries in three games starting in the centres. Liam Martin will be running against the weak side of the Warriors defence and has four tries in nine matches against New Zealand.

Tips

Best: Under 40.5 ($1.90)
Next: Neither Team To Score 20 ($3.80)
Tryscorer: Leka Halasima ($17 First, $3.35 Anytime)
SGM: Leka Halasima Try/Liam Martin Try ($10.42)

The Sydney Roosters and Canterbury both rank in the top three for defence over the last six weeks and look set to play out a defence-oriented match that holds great importance to both clubs on Friday night. The Roosters have their eye on the minor premiership and enter this off the stunning 82 points they put on the Cowboys. The Bulldogs are back in the Top 8 for the first time since April and with a difficult run home need every competition point they can collect. That all points to an under affair. Five of the last seven between these two have finished 44 or fewer. Night games have gone under at 68.2% this year. The under hits at 69% when a team is off scoring 66-plus. The under is 6-2 when the Roosters play a Top 8 team while it is 16-9 when the Bulldogs are off a double digit win. The total is far too big. Robert Toia is in elite form with four tries in his last five games. Mark Nawaqanitawase is a supreme finisher with 40 tries in 39 games, scoring twice in two games against Canterbury.

Tips

Best: Under 45.5 ($1.90)
Next: Neither Team To Score 20 ($5.20)
Tryscorer: Robert Toia ($12 First, $2.50 Anytime)
SGM: Robert Toia Try/Mark Nawaqanitawase Try ($3.60)

Both Melbourne and Manly are dreadfully out of form but head to Perth needing a victory to keep fading finals hopes alive. Rumours that Manly would see the return of stars Tom Trbojevic and Clayton Faulalo proved unfounded but off a bye the Sea Eagles should be better prepared for this one. Over the last six weeks the Storm have been horrific defensively and that should play the flatlining Sea Eagles defence back into form. The Sea Eagles have won and covered five of the last seven against the Storm. Manly are 14-7 against the spread off conceding 30-plus while they are 27-18 against the number off a loss. The Storm are 2-9 against the spread off a loss while they have covered just three of 12 interstate games. A comfortable Manly win looks to be on the cards. Melbourne’s edge defence has been horrific this season and Haumole Olakau’atu has been the best second rower this season. He has eight tries this season and has scored four times in his last six games against the Storm. Tolutau Koula has six tries in his last five games against Melbourne.

Tips

Best: Manly -3.5 ($1.85)
Next: Manly 13+ ($3.10)
Tryscorer: Haumole Olakau’atu ($12.50 First, $2.40 Anytime)
SGM: Haumole Olakau’atu Try/Tolutau Koula Try ($5.00)

The Brisbane Derby has lost some of its lustre with the Broncos meek rolling over in what will go down as one of the worst title defences of all-time but we could see plenty of fireworks with the Dolphins needing to win big. These games have tended to be under affairs and Brisbane’s attack has been nothing short of shameful this year in what will surely cost Trent Barrett his job but both teams are in a big over spot. The over is 9-5 when the Dolphins are favoured at Suncorp while it is 17-9 when they are favoured by at least a try. The over is 15-8 when the Broncos are off scoring 14 or fewer while it is 9-4 when the Broncos are off a loss of 20-plus. The Dolphins have the fourth best attack since Round 17 while both teams rank in the bottom half defensively over that time frame. A high-scoring affair looks the most likely scenario. Kodi Nikorima is having a superb season and the Broncos concede a larger percentage of tries through the middle. Hamiso Tabuai-Fidow has 61 tries in 71 games at the Dolphins and has scored five tries in 10 games against the Broncos.  

Tips 

Best: Over 48.5 ($1.90)
Next: Dolphins Over 28.5 ($1.96)
Tryscorer: Kodi Nikorima ($23 First, $4 Anytime)
SGM: Kodi Nikorima Try/Hamiso Tabuai-Fidow Try ($6.83) 

South Sydney have long dominated Parramatta and while they should win comfortably again, the best bet is the under with the Rabbitohs in a tremendous under spot. Night games have gone under at 68.2% this season while the under is 22-7 when Souths play in NSW away from Accor. The under is 4-1 when Souths play at Allianz, 21-13 when they are off a double digit defeat and 36-25 when the play at night. The Eels are scoring just 16 points per game since Round 17 with Parramatta riding a nine-game under streak. Parramatta just don’t have any points in them. The under is an excellent bet. Cody Walker scored first when these teams met in Round 17 by running at defensive liability Mitchell Moses and can do so again. He has seven tries this year. Tallis Duncan has seven tries in 10 games playing in the centres.

Tips

Best: Under 45.5 ($1.95)
Next: Parramatta 10 Points or Less ($3.75)
Tryscorer: Cody Walker ($16 First, $3.05 Anytime)
SGM: Cody Walker Try/Tallis Duncan Try ($7.15)

It is absolutely astonishing to see Canberra favoured in this one with the disrespect being shown to the Knights quite remarkable. Newcastle are destined for finals football while Canberra have endured a shocking season after winning the minor premiership last year. The Knights have covered 10 of the last 13 against the Raiders. Newcastle are 32-18 against the spread against teams outside the Top 8, they are 30-19 against the number in day games and have covered 33 of 55 off conceding at least 23. Canberra have covered just four of 12 against Top 8 teams while they have covered just two of 10 when favoured. Newcastle can be bet with complete confidence. Francis Manuleleua has just one try in the top grade but has been heavily involved in the attack the last three weeks while he has been a prolific tryscorer in the lower grades with eight tries in eight games in NSW Cup this year. Fletcher Sharpe is in superb form with seven tries in his last 10 games.  

Tips 

Best: Newcastle +2.5 ($1.90)
Next: Newcastle Win ($2.20)
Tryscorer: Francis Manuleleua ($29 First, $5 Anytime)
SGM: Francis Manuleleua Try/Fletcher Sharpe Try ($12.94) 

Big home underdogs are typically the way to bet and St George Illawarra have been highly reliable as a big underdog, covering 19 of 29 getting double digits, but Cronulla are the hottest team in the NRL and should be bet laying 15.5 points. Home underdogs of 12.5 or more cover at 66% the last four years but when those teams play day games, they cover at just 36%. The Dragons have been poor at Kogarah, covering just four of 12. Cronulla are in their perfect spot too, playing a bad team when favoured in the afternoon. The Sharks are 16-8 against the spread against bottom five teams, 31-23 against the number when favoured by a try and 22-13 against the spread in day games. The Sharks are scoring points and defending well and covering big lines. The minus is an excellent bet. The Dragons concede 46% of tries down their right edge so the focus is on left edge Cronulla players. Teig Wilton has seven tries in 17 games. Mawene Hiroti has nine tries in his last 18 games.  

Tips 

Best: Cronulla -15.5 ($1.90)
Next: Cronulla -29.5 ($3.70)
Tryscorer: Teig Wilton Try ($17 First, $3 Anytime)
SGM: Teig Wilton Try/Mawene Hiroti Try ($6.85)