The All Blacks are on a mission to continue their Rugby Championship domination when they kick-off their 2024 Rugby Championship campaign on Saturday. However, in their way will be a battle-tested South Africa team, a rejuvenated Wallabies unit under a new head coach and the always-feisty Argentina.
After a shortened version of the tournament in 2023 due to the Rugby World Cup, we see a return to the full six-round schedule in 2024, with a home and away round robin format, setting up a raft of exciting clashes. But who will come out on top by the end of September? Let’s go through what each team will be bringing to the table for the 2024 Rugby Championship.
New Zealand
As mentioned, the All Blacks have dominated this competition in recent years. If you include the 2020 COVID-induced Tri-Nations (between NZ, Australia and Argentina), it’s five-straight titles that the kiwis have won, and on the back of a 2-0 series victory over England, the All Blacks will be feeling confident of adding another trophy to their cabinet.
Those triumphs over England did not come easily, with both games going down to the wire. The first Test in Dunedin could easily have gone the way of the visitors, with the All Blacks winning a controversial penalty at the death, before holding off a hot England attack in the final minutes of the second game. Regardless of how they came, they’ll take consecutive wins over England any day of the week, especially in the first pair of games under Scott Robertson.
Damian McKenzie, Beauden Barrett and Sevu Reece all had monster series in the back line, while the return of Ardie Savea to NZ fields was a very welcome sight. Bolstered by Ethan de Groot and Scott Barrett in the pack, it was a solid couple of performances underneath Razor, but it wasn’t all positives. Ball security was an issue and they were constantly interrupted at lineout time, and while their performance against Fiji looked much more assured, the All Blacks have some areas of concern to work on ahead of TRC.
Australia
The Wallabies went into July under similar circumstances, introducing a new head coach while welcoming a Northern Hemisphere opponent for a two-Test series. The Joe Schmidt era started with two riveting wins over Wales, first putting together a 25-16 victory before a 36-28 second Test triumph.
They followed that series with a one-off game against Georgia, with a B-string side prevailing 40-29 to make it three-from-three under Schmidt. The revamped Wallabies squad looked refreshed and happy to play a free-flowing style, which helped players such as Tom Wright, Filipo Daugunu and even Rob Valetini excel thus far. Their set piece looked solid, as did their kicking game, but still without genuine game-breakers at this level and bringing a relatively inexperienced squad to the party in 2024, it’s hard to see the Wallabies having a heap of success in the 2024 TRC.
South Africa
The Springboks, on the other hand, have experience on tap. This is a star-studded Springboks squad that has been named for the Rugby Championship, including a slew of Rugby World Cup winners, such as Siya Kolisi, Pieter-Steph du Toit, Faf de Klerk, Handre Pollard, Eben Etzebeth and many more.
However, Ireland very recently proved that this is not an invincible Springboks squad, going over to the Republic and tying their two-game series 1-1. The South Africans won the first Test 27-20, carrying strongly and denying Ireland of a good number of scoring opportunities, but the visitors were more efficient the second time around, winning 25-24 to hand South Africa their first loss at home since August 2022.
We know the Springbok scrum will be very strong and we know that the boot of Handre Pollard will rack up the points. Whether they can produce the points in the back line will be highly important, but most salient will be their ability to win on the road. First-up wins in Brisbane and Perth would be huge and may well lay the foundations to finish the competition on top.
Argentina
Los Pumas start the 2024 Rugby Championship as $21 outsiders to win the title after a mixed start to their 2024 fixture. Hosting France for a pair of Tests at the beginning of July, Argentina missed a golden opportunity for a couple of wins over the rugby powerhouse, as Les Bleus brought a second-string squad to South America.
However, Argentina couldn’t fully capitalise, losing the first Test 13-28, before regathering to record a 33-25 victory in the second matchup. A 79-5 obliteration of Uruguay the following week made it two wins on the trot for the Argentinians, and a lot of their big names, including Julian Montoya, Pablo Matera and Santiago Carreras return for another international season, but anything more than one win will be a success for this Pumas team.
The Verdict
This is essentially a two-horse race. South Africa and New Zealand are lengths in front of Australia and Argentina and the champion will very likely be determined in the Round 3 and Round 4 clashes between these two great rugby nations, and my pick is with the South Africans.
The class and World Cup-winning experience of the Springboks will elevate them above the New Zealanders. The pack of the South Africans is brutally physical and precise, while the steadiness of their inside backs and the explosiveness and excellent game management of their outside backs will combine to be a winning formula in 2024.
Best: South Africa ($1.60)